Washington Report on Middle East Affairs, August 2009, pages 54-55
Waging Peace
“Ahmadinejad’s Uncertain Future”
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THE CARNEGIE Endowment for International Peace and the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars co-sponsored a June 2 event in Washington, DC on Iran’s upcoming presidential elections.
Haleh Esfandiari, Middle East Program director at the Woodrow Wilson Center (WWC), introduced the discussion by noting that “in the last quarter-century the incumbent has won a second term.” Despite a sense of malaise in the country and predictions pointing to a high voter turnout, Esfandiari said, there can be “no good feel for trends until Iranians actually go to the polls.”
According to WWC public policy scholar Robin Wright, the June 12 election has arguably generated the most interest since the reformist former President Seyed Mohammad Khatami’s was elected 12 years ago. Of 475 registered presidential candidates, only 4 were approved by the Iran’s Guardian Council (comprising 12 Islamic and constitutional jurists), said Wright.
She went on to enumerate each of the challengers to incumbent Mahmoud Ahmadinejad:
Former Prime Minister Mir-Hossein Mousavi: A “conservative moderate” and the leading opposition candidate, who ran on the slogan “Return to Stability, Return to Rationality.” Appealing to young voters, the urban middle class and professionals, Mousavi vowed to follow in former President Khatami’s footsteps. However, Wright noted, he lacks the former’s charisma. Mousavi has been successful in using Facebook, blogs, and the Internet in general to communicate with and rally his supporters.
Former Speaker of the Parliament (Majlis) Mehdi Karroubi: Wright described Karroubi as a “true reformer,” a “cross between Al-Sadr and Santa Claus” and an “anti-cleric cleric.” Karroubi’s was the most liberal platform, supporting the release of political prisoners, protection of free speech, and the lifting of social restrictions.
Former Commander of the Revolutionary Guards Mohsein Rezaii: Wright viewed this “pragmatic conservative” as an unlikely candidate who may help by denying Ahmadinejad some votes. Rezaii advocated formalizing political parties, incorporating ethnic minorities into the cabinet, and decreasing mandatory military service from two years to one.
The campaign’s major issues, Wright stated, were Ahmadinejad’s record, the economy, women’s rights, and Iranian-U.S. relations. The scholar cited as non-issues Iran’s nuclear program, the survival of the Islamic Republic, and promoting maximum voter turnout.
Karim Sadjadpour, a Middle East Program associate at Carnegie, began by describing Mousavi as “Iran’s Bob Dole,” who is generally well regarded and is seen as a two-for-one package along with his politically active wife. Sadjadpour pointed out that Ahmadinejad has have influence over state television and campaign funds. Sadjadpour characterized Ahmadinejad as a “Khomeini-Palin lovechild” and a “populist Islamist.”
On the question of how democratic the Iranian elections are, Sadjadpour explained it “depends on your metric” and that they are regionally quite democratic but very unpredictable. Sadjadpour echoed the Obama administration’s policy of keeping mum on Iran’s presidential campaigns by saying that the “U.S. should refrain from making any comments about this election.”
—Nina Hamedani
