Washington Report on Middle East Affairs, August 2009, page 54
Waging Peace
Polling For Peace
 |
|
|
|
THE WOODROW Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington, DC hosted an informative panel discussion June 15 regarding the public opinions of Israelis and Palestinians on issues of peace. The discussion, entitled “The Two-State Majority: Polling for Peace in Israel and Palestine,” came on the heels of a poll by the OneVoice Movement showing that 74 percent of Palestinians and 78 percent of Israelis support a two-state solution. The discussion was led by three distinguished pollsters, all affiliated with the OneVoice Movement.
First to speak was Colin Irwin, of University of Liverpool. Calling the Israeli-Palestinian conflict “the most researched conflict in the world,” Irwin emphasized the importance of opinion polls when it comes to peacemaking. One must “work with politicians to craft questions at the right time,” he explained, and have “a confidential line” with elites as well. On the issue of a pollster’s neutrality, Irwin used the example of having to get the entire the poll in Northern Ireland funded by a charity to highlight its centrality to the nature of opinion polling.
The next pollster to speak was Nader Said, a native of Ramallah who is highly respected for his work with the U.N. and the Palestinian Authority. When it comes to public opinions regarding Israel and Palestine’s borders, Said pointed out, multiple viewpoints can exist side-by-side—and even within one person. If given the option, some may favor the idea of Greater Israel or Greater Palestine, he said, but they will also support a two-state solution when pressed. This phenomenon is “conveniently misrepresented by politicians,” Said cautioned, to make the other side seem unwilling to make peace.
The same holds true for thorny issues such as the right of return for Palestinian refugees and Jerusalem as Israel’s undivided capital. “If it is a dream, many dream bigger than life,” Said said. However, he posited that, when confronted with the realities of the conflict, both sides will be more willing to compromise even on the most difficult issues, and as soon as the first move in negotiations is made there will be “a snowball effect to the middle.”
Nina Zemach, director of the Dahaf Research Institute in Tel Aviv, described the changes in public opinion over time, mostly with regard to the Israeli public. In her 40 years conducting polls, Zemach said, she has noticed that much of the Israeli public “has come to understand the fundamental values of the country—democracy, the Jewish state, Greater Israel—they cannot all go together.” People are moving toward compromise, but after the wars in Lebanon and Gaza, Zemach said, “Israeli public discourse has shifted from conflict resolution to conflict management.” Zemach optimistically noted that “Obama has once again changed the discourse back” toward peacemaking.
Zemach discussed public opinion on tough final status issues, including refugees, settlements, and Jerusalem. For instance, 95 percent of Palestinians polled favored all of Jerusalem as the capital of their state, and 58 percent of Israelis won’t accept the removal of settlements in the West Bank. These are high stakes issues based on “traumatic” experiences on both sides.
A member of the audience asked Zemach about Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s call for a “demilitarized” Palestinian state. She replied, “75 percent of Israelis do not want to see a Palestinian state have an army,” and added, “but 71 percent of Palestinians feel Israel should be demilitarized as well.”
The OneVoice Movement is a grassroots organization aimed at “amplifying the voice of Israeli and Palestinian moderates.” It seeks to “take the pulse of the people,” and its literature states: “Gauging the public is great, but engaging the public is whatmost critical.” For more information, visit <www.onevoicemovement.org>.
—National Council on U.S.-Arab Relations Intern
