Articles
December 2011, Pages 67-68
Waging Peace
Wilson Center Event Examines Iran's Domestic and International Relations
The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars hosted a Sept. 30 event titled "Iran: Turmoil at Home, Assertiveness Abroad?" The first of two panels addressed Iran's economy, educational system and internal political struggles, while the second addressed Iran's nuclear ambitions and its relations with the Gulf nations. The domestic panel was moderated by Haleh Esfandiari, the Iranian-American director of the Wilson Center's Middle East program who was imprisoned by the Iranian regime for more than 110 days in 2007. Wilson Center scholar and journalist Robin Wright moderated the panel on Iran's international relations.
Analyzing Iran's domestic politics, Shaul Bakhash, professor of history at George Mason University—and an Iranian-born Jew who is married to Esfandiari—observed that Iran's political leaders increasingly are resorting to authoritarian practices. In the wake of the contested 2009 presidential elections, he said, a growing number of individuals are being charged with partaking in conspiracies designed to destabilize the Tehran government. The Iranian regime is disparagingly referring to these reformers as the "seditionist current," Bakhash added.
Moreover, he noted, there is growing conflict within Iran's ruling elite. Some, such as President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, have frequently been referred to as the "deviationist current" by the more conservative elements within Iran. Accusing these "deviationists" of "religious unorthodoxy" and financial corruption, Bakhash noted that figures such as Iran's spiritual leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei accuse these individuals of straying from the principles of the Islamic revolution.
Bijan Khajehpour, managing partner of Atieh International, described the Iranian economy as being "sick." Khajehpour, who was imprisoned for three months in 2009, in the aftermath of the disputed presidential election, noted that while Iran's economy is experiencing 3 percent annual growth, unemployment and inflation are rising. He cited as the most significant factor contributing to inflation the government's failed subsidy reforms. Rather than equally distributing money between the lowest income class, industries, and the treasury, Khajehpour explained, the subsidies have gone disproportionately to the lower class, causing the prices of commodities to rise. He also identified rampant corruption in the awarding of new business contracts as an important explanation as to why Iran's economy is lagging.
Analyzing the impact that sanctions have had on the Iranian economy, Khajehpour noted that they have resulted in a lack of foreign investment in the country and in the annual loss of approximately $10 billion in imports. Additionally, Khajehpour noted that sanctions have made it increasingly difficult for Iran to receive funds from its oil exports.
In the opinion of Roberto Toscano, a former Italian ambassador to Iran, the Iranian regime is attempting to use the classroom to promote the ideals of the 1979 revolution. In so doing, Toscano elaborated, the regime is attempting to convey that "there is only one ideology that allows [individuals] to belong to [the Iranian] community." Toscano said the regime finds the humanities particularly objectionable, charging that the humanities promote secularism, "are not scientific, [and] can be the vehicle of Western influence." Nevertheless, the ambassador observed, the regime has had difficulty preventing Western ideas from entering the country, and the Iranian people remain well informed.
Opening the panel on Iran's international relations, Rouzbeh Parsi, research fellow with the European Union Institute for Security Studies, described the nuclear issue surrounding Iran as "quite impossible" to solve. Noting that talks between the West and Iran are stalled, he said that there is "really nothing to agree on." Moreover, he added, it will be difficult for talks to be rescheduled, as negotiations have become so complicated that no one knows "what to reset it to." Finally, Parsi criticized the West for lacking a cohesive plan for dealing with the Iranian nuclear threat, commenting that "there is no strategy for where all of this is supposed to end up." Diplomacy, he added, has become a reward rather than a means of communication.
While many view Iran as an aggressive actor on the world stage, Iranian-American Afshin Molavi, senior research fellow at the New America Foundation, noted that Tehran has demonstrated restraint in recent months—citing its response to information leaked via WikiLeaks that Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the UAE have encouraged the U.S. to attack Iran. Rather than inflame already strained relations with the Gulf countries, Molavi pointed out, President Ahmadinejad instead quietly dismissed the news as a "Zionist plot to create regional conflict." Molavi also described China's relationship with Iran as purely "transactional," which should not be seen as an alliance.
Concluding the discussion, Michael Adler, Wilson Center public policy scholar, commented that Iran has been successful at "maintaining a certain amount of ambiguity" surrounding its nuclear program. By denying the U.S. the smoking gun it seeks, he added, Iran has been able to win "tactical victory after tactical victory." Adler predicted that Iran will continue to cultivate ambiguity surrounding its nuclear program in an effort to deny the U.S. and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) the damning evidence it seeks to implicate Iran. While Alder alluded to the 2007 National Intelligence Estimate—representing the unanimous judgment of all 16 U.S. intelligence agencies— that Iran has had no active nuclear weapons program since 2003, he suggested that the U.S. government is behind in its intelligence. The 2007 finding has yet to be revised.
—Dale Sprusansky
