Articles
Waging Peace, Pages 50-51
The Crisis in Yemen
ON JAN. 21, amid a flood of interest about Yemen and al-Qaeda following the failed efforts of the Christmas Day underwear bomber, the Middle East Institute in Washington, DC hosted a discussion on the historical and political context that frames the current conditions in Yemen.
Former Ambassador to Yemen David Newton highlighted two historical developments that have contributed significantly to the country’s destabalization. “Unification [between the north and south]...politically in 1990 and militarily in 1994, has certainly exacerbated regional differences,” he noted. Moreover, the introduction of Salafism—a Sunni Islamic movement that takes the pious Salaf ancestors of early Islam as exemplary models—a religious interpretation which was “rather foreign to Yemenis,” Newton explained, “has created a whole new range of political and security problems.”
Enumerating Yemen’s principal problems, Newton divided them into regional and socio-economic categories. Pressures from Salafism and government neglect, for example, are responsible for the current conflict with the Zaidi militant group known as the al-Houthi. There is similar resentment in the south, centered in the former capital of Aden. Dissatisfaction with the central government in Sana’a is no less present in the Hadhramaut of western Yemen, where pressure for autonomy has been a historical constant.
While it represents a considerable challenge, Newton said, regional factionalization was of lesser concern compared to the country’s political and socio-economic predicaments. A rapidly expanding population, for example, is a fundamental dilemma with no immediate solution. “There are 700,000 new Yemenis every year,” he noted, which creates the challenge of “where these people can go and where they find employment.” The population question is further complicated by an extreme scarcity of resources. “Massive use of agricultural water [for qat cultivation], overuse of aquifers and fossil water,” compounded by the government’s inability to restrict the drilling of private wells, has resulted in the near depletion of Yemen’s water sources, Newton pointed out. Despite the historic capacity to “cope in adversity,” he said, the country’s burgeoning population, along with few employment prospects and a declining standard of living, combine to form a challenge that will “test their mettle.”
Newton called on the neighboring countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) to play a constructive role in helping Yemen survive its current crisis. The GCC should relax barriers that currently restrict Yemenis from entering the labor force, for without such foreign economic opportunities, Newton warned, “it’s very difficult to see how Yemen will get through its problems.”
Another former ambassador to Yemen, Thomas Krajeski, who was unable to comment on the record, generally agreed with Ambassador Newton’s diagnosis of the long-term difficulties facing Yemen. Krajeski spoke at length on the resurgence of al-Qaeda of the Arabian Peninsula in Yemen and indicated that he is confident al-Qaeda will be summarily dealt with by the Yemeni government. From a Yemeni perspective, however, he noted, al-Qaeda is not a major concern—but U.S. interest is likely to force the issue for the Saleh government.
Recalling the socio-economic and political issues introduced by Ambassador Newton, Krajeski recommended that the U.S. make an effort to maintain a healthy and cooperative relationship with Yemen after al-Qaeda is contained or eliminated. Continued low-impact involvement encouraging development will be mutually advantageous, he explained, and reduce the likelihood that the U.S. will need to spend and do more in Yemen at a later juncture.
—Andrew Blakely
