Washington Report on Middle East Affairs, December 1997, Pages 68-73

Waging Peace

Samuel Berger Speaks at Georgetown

Presidential National Security Adviser Samuel (Sandy) Berger told an audience at Georgetown University in September that the Clinton administration is committed to staying in Bosnia and supporting the Dayton Peace Accords.

"This is a source of European instability [and] American security and European stability are linked," Berger said. "Dayton is the best way to advance America's interests."

Billed as a major policy speech by both the Clinton administration and the Washington press corps, Berger's speech came after recent heavy criticism by Republican members of Congress and former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger of the 1995 Dayton agreement which, along with NATO military action in the summer of 1995 against Bosnian Serb forces, brought an end to the Bosnian war.

Berger defended the administration's commitment to a multi-ethnic Bosnia by saying that the tiny Balkan nation was not trapped in its history of hatred, nor was ethnic partition desirable or inevitable.

"Some say Bosnia can never escape the past," Berger said. "But hatreds can be aroused by cynical leaders...The partitionists are wrong. [Partition] means allowing the redrawing of borders by force."

Berger said the United States was committed to some kind of peacekeeping force in Bosnia well after the SFOR (NATO's Stabilization Force) mandate ends next year, although he did not say whether that force would include American soldiers or not.

"Life is genuinely, if slowly, returning to normal in Bosnia," Berger said. "Peace is beginning to take root and the international community will stay engaged for a good while to come."

The United States currently has approximately 8,000 military personnel serving in and around Bosnia supporting SFOR and NATO operations.

Responding to the administration's critics, Berger said the vital American interest in Bosnia was not only peace and stability in Europe but the peace and security of the people of Bosnia itself. He illustrated his point by describing the life of a fictitious 15-year-old Muslim girl in Sarajevo, someone Berger said has spent nearly half her life experiencing the horrors of war.

"Today, instead of huddling in cold, muddy basements to escape the incessant shelling, she is going to school," Berger said. "She won't be afraid of freezing this winter."

Incomes have increased, homes have been rebuilt and the shattered Bosnian economy is expected to grow this year, Berger pointed out. None of that could have happened without the Dayton agreement and international involvement.

Berger also defended the administration's support of President Biljana Plavcic of the Serbian portion of Bosnia in her struggle against Radovan Karadzic, former president and creator of the Serb mini-state in Bosnia.

"We have not taken sides in Srbska," Berger said. "We are even-handed in our support of Dayton. They [Karadzic and the Pale Serb leadership] have chosen the path of self-isolation."

The process has not gone completely as planned, Berger said. Many refugees still have not been able to return to their homes. Tensions are still high in places like Brcko, and the struggle between the Serb factions is still unresolved. None of that, however, justifies abandoning Bosnia to the forces of hatred and history.

The critics are wrong on the facts, Berger said. "Dayton has kept the guns silent... The only road forward runs through Dayton."

—Charles Featherstone

Ambassador Eric Rouleau Speaks at CPAP

"I believe the Oslo accords are dead, and they are dead because they were killed the moment the Netanyahu government came into office," said Ambassador Eric Rouleau during a Sept. 17 presentation at the Center for Policy Analysis on Palestine in Washington, DC. Rouleau, a former French ambassador to Tunisia and to Turkey from 1985-1991, and former editor for the French press agency Agence France Presse, discussed "The Balance of Power in the New Middle East" before an audience of diplomats, journalists and academics.

Drawing on his experience as a correspondent for Le Monde in several Arab countries, as well as in Cyprus, Greece, Iran, Israel, and Turkey, Rouleau analyzed what he called the "disbalance of power" in the region. "Belligerents usually come to the table when they realize stalemate," he said, but, because of Israeli military superiority, this is not the case between the Arabs and Israel. Rather than compromise, "[Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin] Netanyahu is hoping for capitulation [but] the Arabs don't feel weak enough to capitulate to Israel." The result, he said, is attrition.

Turning to the role of the international community in the Arab-Israeli peace process, Rouleau warned of the problems if the United States remains the sole moderator and guarantor of peace between Arabs and Israelis. "It's not possible to go forward, in the French/European view, with the U.S. as the sole patron of the peace process," he said. The reason, he explained, is because, "for domestic reasons, the United States can't deliver the goods," a reference to the overwhelming influence on U.S. Middle East policy of Israel's U.S. lobby, which dominates Congress and inhibits decisive action by the president and secretary of state.

Rouleau pointed out, however, that there are three obstacles to greater European involvement in the peace process. These are American opposition, European fragmentation, with many European countries "blindly following the lead of the United States," and a passive attitude by Arab states toward greater multilateral involvement by the European community.

MEI Hosts Discussion on Afghanistan

Afghanistan's Taliban movement may control most of that war-torn country, but according to American University in Cairo Professor Larry Goodsen, they'll never be able to govern it.

"Even people who respect them recognize them as incapable of governing the country," he said.

Goodsen spoke on Thursday, Sept. 4, to an audience at Washington's Middle East Institute about the several months he spent last summer in Afghanistan researching the nearly four-year-old movement of Islamic students for an upcoming book. Goodsen has spent the last 10 years on and off in the Central Asian nation and has written extensively on Afghanistan, its people and its culture.

Twenty years of civil war has nearly destroyed Afghanistan, Goodsen said, and the country's war-weary population has been eager to embrace the Taliban, even if that means accepting such eccentric interpretations of shariah (Islamic law) as prohibitions against women working, children playing soccer and flying kites, and the disarming of Afghan men.

A year ago, the Taliban looked set to defeat the three rival factions and unite the entire country, Goodsen said. But military setbacks and internal divisions over the Taliban's social policies have put into question the movement's prospects of ruling all of Afghanistan.

Goodsen pointed out that currently the country's civil war is primarily an ethnic one between the largely Pashtoon Taliban in the south and west, the Tajiks under Ahmad Shah Masoud in the northeast, and the Uzbeks in the north-central area. There was no way Afghanistan could ever be governed effectively without the Pashtoon, he added.

"The Taliban presented an opportunity for Pashtoon government," Goodsen said. "A Tajik-Uzbek government would never fly."

Goodsen said the Taliban were able to gain the upper hand in the 20-year-old Afghan civil war not because of their military skills but because many Afghans see them as occupying the moral high ground.

"They're not all that excellent soldiers," Goodsen said. "They're perceived as morally superior to other Afghan factions by the people and themselves." In fact, Goodsen said, the Taliban has only about 80,000 men under arms, compared to about 110,000 in the combined armies of its opponents.

According to Goodsen, the Taliban learned its "fundamentalist" Islam in the madressas (Islamic schools) of Pakistan's Northwest Frontier Province. Hardest hit have been the nation's women, most of whom have been removed from their jobs. Goodsen reported that Taliban officials said they were paying stipends to war widows who had no male to support them and their children, but that there was little evidence to confirm that.

"Kids are playing soccer now, [there are] even organized matches of adult teams. Kites are flying again and there's even cricket in Kabul," Goodsen said.

Most of the Taliban's leadership is young, in their late 20s and early to mid-30s, and that's unusual for Afghan culture, which tends to respect elders and put them in positions of power and authority.

Goodsen also said it wasn't entirely clear how the Taliban's supremeshura (consultative council) worked or even how many members are in it.

Goodsen said the shura members discuss an issue and make their case to Mullah Omar, who usually makes the final decision.

After its two years in power, Goodsen said, the Taliban has little to show for its efforts. The World Food Program still feeds half of Kabul, and many government employees have not been paid in five months.

"I was approached by beggars in a way I have never been approached before," Goodsen said. "There's a lot of desperation in Kabul."

U.S. General Discusses "Dual Containment" Policy at MEI

"Iran is the principle long-term threat in the region, [and] has the capability to damage peace and stability" in the Persian Gulf, according to Gen. Joseph P. Hoar, who served as commander-in-chief of the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) from 1991 to 1994. The four-star retired Marine general, who discussed U.S. policy in the Gulf Sept. 19 at the Middle East Institute in Washington, DC, spoke at length about potential threats to peace and stability in the region, focusing first on Iraq before turning his attention to Iran. Iraq is capable of terrorism, subversion in the region, developing weapons of mass destruction, and conventional military attacks limited in size, scope and distance, he said.

More importantly, "the Iranians have the ability to close the Strait [of Hormuz] today," Gen. Hoar said, "but the question is, why would they want to?" An estimated 50 to 70 percent of the world's oil, including Iranian oil, flows through the Strait daily, giving Iran an economic incentive to keep the Strait open. He added, however, that "it's entirely plausible" Iran would consider closing the Strait if there were an embargo against Iranian oil.

Despite these dangers, General Hoar said "containment does not solve the [long-term] problems." The U.S. should be willing to deal with the next generation of Iranian leaders, "even though they will not be Jeffersonian democrats," he said.

A serious problem with the U.S. government's current policy toward Iran, according to General Hoar, is that it "fails to give the Iranians credit for the things they have done over the last few years," including aiding in the release of hostages, their willingness to deal with a U.S. company to develop the offshore Sirri oil fields (a project later blocked by the U.S. government), and Iran's cooperation in the 1991 Gulf war. Therefore, General Hoar concluded, the U.S. "should seize the opportunity of a new leader" in Iran.

Middle East Policy Council Holds Capitol Hill Conference

A panel discussion entitled "Caspian Oil: Pipelines and Politics" was hosted by the Middle East Policy Council Sept. 25, in the Dirksen Senate Office Building on Capitol Hill. The impetus behind the conference was the efforts of various nations to extract oil and gas from the Caspian Sea, a topic which increasingly dominates the news.

Moderator/discussant Dr. Michael Collins Dunn, publisher of The Estimate,opened by pointing out that the activity occurring in the Caspian region has repercussions for U.S. relations with Iran, Afghanistan, and Russia, among others. He added that the region known as Central Asia has only gradually entered the consciousness of the American people, with Lebanese-American promoter Roger Tamraz bringing the area into focus in September with his testimony before Senate campaign finance investigators on how he sought to buy White House support for a pipeline project to transport Central Asian oil to the Mediterranean Sea.

Dr. Frederick Starr, head of the Central Asian Institute at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), opened his remarks by noting that the Peter Hopkirk book, The Great Game, which described the power struggle occurring between Russia and Great Britain in Central Asia before World War I, is "completely inappropriate" as a point of reference in trying to understand the current state of affairs in Central Asia.

Presently, there are eight indigenous states, three west of the Caspian Sea and five east. The pressing issue, according to Dr. Starr, is whether these post-colonial states will be self-sustaining and viable international entities into the next century. In order to achieve this, he said that education, infrastructure, and human capital must be emphasized. As concerns communications and transportation, Dr. Starr noted that the Soviet Union had acted to ensure that its pipelines from Central Asia would have no southern links, in order that all oil and gas from the region would pass through Moscow before going on to export markets. The issue now is how to open up these southern routes, despite the Russian desire to keep the current pipeline grid in place. He added that another Russian concern is that Central Asian oil and gas will be competing directly with Russian exports to Europe.

The Asian market, however, is seen by all concerned as the growth sector for Caspian Sea energy exports. Dr. Starr envisions pipelines not only north to Russia, but also to the West, the Persian Gulf, the Indian subcontinent, and China. He lists the restraints to such an ambitious program as money, geography and the Russian emphasis on northern pipeline routes. Added to that are the fighting in Afghanistan and American policies vis-â-vis Iran.

Dr. Starr warned that as regional and other powers continue to vie over energy supplies and rights in the Caspian littoral, the potential for conflict will increase. In a worst case scenario, such a conflict could render the Caspian region useless as an energy producer, he said. To head off such a catastrophe, cooperation and self-restraint are called for. In addition, the Central Asian countries must be allowed to strengthen, with democratic governments strongly encouraged. In closing, Dr. Starr noted that the pipeline issue cannot be addressed in a vacuum. There must be an integration of the energy industry, taking into account the needs of both the regional states and outside investors.

Julia Nanay, director of The Petroleum Finance Company, began her presentation by explaining the interconnected relationship between the development of global oil markets and the increasing corporate competition for Caspian markets. Ms. Nanay also emphasized the emerging Asian energy market, with transport fuels being the most important. Central Asia and the Trans-Caucasus region are currently witnessing the "creeping presence" of Asian companies into their part of the world, with Malaysia, China and India presently the main contenders, according to Ms. Nanay.

She contended that with U.S. companies stymied by laws forbidding them from conducting business with Iran, many Asian companies are more than happy to take up the slack, with oil pipelines proposed through Iran and on to China. While U.S. companies are forced to ship Kazak oil by truck and train to processing stations for Asian market delivery, the arrangements worked out by Asian companies to pump oil from Kazakhstan through Iran for shipment further east are much more economical and force American companies to take a back seat.

Likewise, the burgeoning gas export potential of Turkmenistan is best utilized by pumping the gas through pipelines across Iran and on to export markets further east, Ms. Nanay stated. The Turkmen, according to Ms. Nanay, cannot afford to wait for U.S. policy on doing business with Iran to change, as the fragility of Turkmenistan's emerging economy and political structure demands immediate conducting of sales on the world energy market.

The final discussant was Dr. Thomas Stauffer, consultant, journalist, and former professor at Harvard and Georgetown Universities. He began his presentation by noting that as concerns Russia on the issue of the Caspian Sea, a great deal of divergence often can be found between the Russian government and Russian oil companies such as Lukhoil and Rasnaft. Dr. Stauffer explained that at times Russian companies may want to work with Central Asian states while Moscow may feel this to be not in the best interests of the government.

The intricacies of getting oil out of Central Asia and the Trans-Caucasus, as related earlier by Dr. Frederick Starr, were further detailed by Dr. Stauffer. He highlighted several steps to minimize reliance on the whims of Russia when it comes to getting Caspian energy resources to foreign markets.

First, he stated that it is important to get more pipelines built out of the region in many directions, so that there is less reliance on Russian equipment. Besides the problem of frequent breakdowns on Russian pipelines, he noted, the Russian government takes a set percentage of the oil flowing through its pipelines at much-below market prices for domestic consumption. Dr. Stauffer stated that trucking oil out of Central Asia to ports on the Caspian and Black Seas is cheaper than reliance upon the Russian pipeline grid.

This is such a vital issue, according to Dr. Stauffer, because the difference between the world price for crude oil and the cost of transporting the product to market are critical to any company's profitability. This makes the "open water" of the Persian Gulf, reached through proposed pipelines in Iran and Afghanistan, a most desirable alternative for the nations of Central Asia and the Trans-Caucasus. Another benefit of using a pipeline system through Iran is that the infrastructure already is in place in the country, including Iran's current internal pipeline system. Dr. Stauffer envisioned a system whereby northern Iran would refine oil and gas from Central Asia and southern Iran would be the export center, with its existing port cities along the Persian Gulf playing the major role. Drawbacks to this plan, he said, include opposition by the U. S. and Israeli governments, problems in Iran-Azerbaijan relations, and the question of whether the Iranians would be interested in taking on such an arrangement in the first place.

Dr. Dunn opened the question-and-answer session by stressing the precarious political situation along almost all of the proposed pipeline routes out of Central Asia. Any route through Georgia would have to pass between Nagorno-Karabagh and the Russian-occupied region of Georgia known as Abkhazia. The Kurds in eastern Turkey would cause worry for anyone considering a pipeline toward the West, while in Afghanistan, the continued fighting between the Pakistani-supported Taliban government forces and the Russian and Central Asian government-supported Afghan opposition forces makes a route to the east through that nation extremely doubtful for the forseeable future. He added that Russia also had its share of pipeline problems, with one of its lines running through Chechnya.

During the question-and-answer period, Julia Nanay reiterated the danger to Central Asia of continued delay in constructing new pipelines out of the region. She noted that Russia is patiently waiting for its chance to install new leaders in the Central Asian nations, with the additional risk of domestic unrest as the populations of these countries wait for an upturn in their very low standard of living.

NDI Discusses Women's Political Participation in Jordan

The National Democratic Institute for International Affairs (NDI) hosted at its Washington, DC headquarters a Sept. 4 discussion entitled "Women's Political Participation in Jordan," featuring Dr. Amal Winter. Winter, an Egyptian-American political activist and clinical psychologist from California, recently returned from an NDI-sponsored three-month research and teaching visit to Jordan. It was part of a broader effort by the Institute to assist Jordanian women candidates in developing political organizing skills.

Winter focused first on democratization in Jordan, and the many factors influencing Jordan's attempts at political liberalization. These include the fact that Palestinians constitute a majority within Jordan's population, tensions resulting from Jordan's peace treaty with Israel, and problems of imposing a democracy on a largely Islamic, tribal society. Such cultures "are quite different," she said, "but they should be respected for their own inherent democratic practices."

On the specific topic of women's participation, Winter noted that the role of women in politics is hindered much more by social conservatism than official prohibitions. She explained that members of parliament are seen as middlemen between those in power and their constituents. Traditionally, women have been excluded from that role because of social mores preventing women from opening their doors to all of their constituents, she said.

Despite these barriers, "there is a circle of some 50 Jordanian women who are [politically] intelligent and articulate," she said, and about "six who are serious candidates [in the upcoming elections]." "I was very impressed by the skill of these women's campaigns," Winter added.

—Shawn L. Twing

Sixth Annual U.S. Mideast Policymakers Conference

The Sixth Annual U.S. Mideast Policymakers Conference, hosted by the National Council on U.S.-Arab Relations, the Virginia Military Institute, and the U.S.-GCC Corporate Cooperation Committee, was held Sept. 7 and 8 at the Virginia Military Institute in Lexington, VA. This year's conference, focusing on corporate security and risk assessment, and the broader impact of globalization on Middle Eastern economies, attracted nearly 150 participants. Twenty-six corporations with interests in the Middle East were represented by 33 business leaders. In addition, over 50 U.S. specialists and experts from government and academia, representing all aspects of the U.S. Mideast policymaking process, were in attendance. Among them was a five-man delegation from U.S. Central Command led by General Anthony C. Zinni, the new commander-in-chief of U.S. CENTCOM. There were also 27 journalists and Middle East consultants present, and foreign delegations, several led by ambassadors, representing 16 different countries spanning five continents.

The challenge for the conference participants was laid down in the keynote address by Mr. Fareed Mohamedi, managing director of the Petroleum Finance Company. Pointing to the lack of regional integration in the Middle East economy, he said: "To survive in a global economy, a country needs to be flexible and proactive...The private sector will increasingly set the pace and lead to a redistribution of economic and political power...Oil is a one-night stand; gas is a long-term partner...The strength of a country is no longer measured by its tanks or its reserves of hard currency, but rather by the skills and innovativeness of its people...its human resources."

Kuwait's ambassador to the U.S., Dr. Mohammad Sabah Al-Salim Al-Sabah, spoke in response to this challenge by addressing globalization on day two. Focusing on the economic issues facing many Middle Eastern countries, he said the free movement of capital and information is essential for success in the global economy. The young and growing labor force, coupled with the stagnant economy of the Middle East, needs an infusion of $250-$300 billion over the next 25 years for infrastructure investment. He recognized that such a sum cannot come from the public sector. The days when the government could dominate the economy are over. Privatization measures are helping to repatriate some investment money, particularly in Kuwait and Oman. However, Ambassador Al-Sabah made it clear that much more needs to be done to achieve the kind of internal and external flow of infrastructure investment funding required to achieve self-sustaining economic diversification and growth.

Ambassador Robert H. Pelletreau, former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Near East Affairs, pointed out that practical steps are being taken toward economic liberalization in the Gulf economies, including rationalizing the requirements for the use of agents and offsets. He highlighted the significant privatization of former government economic assets in Egypt, Tunisia and Morocco, and the progress being made in Kuwait, Oman and Saudi Arabia. This, Pelletreau said, should help persuade corporations to provide the kind of long-term economic investments that Ambassador Al-Sabah said would be necessary over the next 25 years.

In his first speech as commander-in-chief of U.S. Central Command, General Anthony C. Zinni outlined five immediate threats facing the area. First, Iraq remains a military threat to the oil-producing states of the Gulf despite its defeat in the 1990-91 Gulf war and the six-year economic embargo. Second, Iran is shrewdly husbanding its assets and pursuing an armament policy involving new ballistic missiles, submarines, mines, patrol boats, anti-ship missiles and weapons of mass destruction rather than the expensive conventional arms that Iraq has procured. Third, terrorism poses a particular threat for U.S. forces stationed in the region. According to the U.S. Department of State, five of the seven countries that sponsor terrorism are located in the Middle East. Fourth, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and related technology continues to be a concern in the wake of revelations about Iraq's WMD program. Fifth, threats to internal and regional stability continue to focus the attention of U.S. officials in the region.

In his closing remarks, General Zinni pointed to the possibility of the Central Asian republics to the north being added to the CENTCOM area of responsibility if oil and gas pipelines from the region are routed through Iran to the Gulf. He called for a flexible alliance strategy that balances access agreements with pre-positioned equipment and an over-the-horizon presence. He said he is committed to building up personal and professional relationships with Gulf allies, something he considers more important than formal treaties. In fact, Gen. Zinni made it clear that he was very open to new ideas and invited all conference participants to communicate their ideas to him and his staff.

Overall, the congregation of economic, corporate, political, and military professionals resulted in a Sixth Annual U.S. Mideast Policymakers Conference judged by all to be a thorough success. This year's Policymakers Conference achieved its goal of bringing together such disparate groups for everyone's mutual benefit and education. It was a weekend that allowed the participants to get to know one another personally and professionally, and is already drawing interest for next year. Such continued interaction among participants certainly will raise the efficacy of their own work, as well as U.S. Mideast policy, in the future.

Inquiries about the Seventh Annual U.S. Mideast Policymakers Conference in 1998 can go to Ryan Schroeder at the National Council on U.S.-Arab Relations, tel. (202) 293-0801, or vmi98@ncusar.org

—Ryan Schroeder

World Bank Program Considers Palestinian Refugees in Lebanon

On Sept. 25, the World Bank social development department sponsored a slide presentation by Maha Ayoub on Palestinian refugees in Lebanon. Other speakers were Nigel Roberts of the World Bank's West Bank, Gaza Strip country office; Don Peretz, who has worked with Palestinian refugees since 1945 and is the author of several books and articles; and Nina Dodge of American Near East Refugee Aid (ANERA).

Ms. Ayoub said that non-governmental organizations (NGOs) have tried to alleviate poverty and unsanitary conditions that still exist in the refugee camps in Lebanon, despite lack of cooperation from the Lebanese government which has resulted in the closure of many schools, hospitals and other services. The Lebanese government is trying to shut down the camps and move the Palestinians from Lebanon, she said.

The city of Beirut also is building a brand-new stadium in part of the Sabra-Shatila camp area for the Pan-Arab games to be held in Beirut in the year 2000, forcing many of the refugees to move to other areas of the city.

There are 12 "registered" refugee camps that account for over half of the Palestinian refugees in Lebanon, with another large population living in many "unregistered" camps and dwellings, Ayoub said. The Lebanese government has denied work permits and travel documents to a majority of these Palestinian refugees. They also suffer from substandard housing, reduced access and availability of medical services, restricted educational opportunities, and both underemployment and unemployment.

"Their situation needs resolving, but their best interests are not being considered, unfortunately, due to the political circumstances revolving around the negotiations," Ms. Ayoub stated. The multilateral negotiations on refugee issues that were due to take place in May of 1996 under the Oslo accords have not begun. The Lebanese government has told the Palestinian Authority (PA) that the refugees are its problem, but the PA feels that since many of the refugees have been living in Lebanon for up to 49 years, it is the responsibility of the Lebanese government to provide for them.

Palestinians took pride in the fact that their literacy rate was one of the highest in the region, Ayoub pointed out, and in fact many went to the Persian Gulf to work. However, with the schools closing in the camps in Lebanon, their children, ages 10 to 17, are not being educated and the illiteracy rate of children in the camps now is between 30 and 60 percent.

Women, who make up the majority of the refugee population in Lebanon, have difficulty in keeping their families together. In one refugee camp, Bourj al-Barajneh, there are 247 widows, with 80 percent having had no schooling at all, and only 2 percent with more than 10 years of schooling. Overall, 89 percent of these widows are functionally illiterate. Many of their problems are a result of the war, lack of training and opportunities and a general lack of self-esteem. The stresses of being displaced persons in a country not their own, danger of attacks by Israeli aircraft, and the lack of utilities all contribute to severe anxiety and other psychological problems that go largely untreated.

Ms. Dodge described the work of American Near East Refugee Aid (ANERA) in helping the refugees. The agency operates the training and vocational schools that have taught the refugees invaluable skills. ANERA and other NGOs also work with the women of the camps, training them as seamstresses, hairdressers, basket weavers, and in needlepoint or embroidery, in order to help them start small cottage businesses, to bring money into the family. The NGOs also deal with "unregistered" refugees who would otherwise fall through the cracks with their only relief coming from local NGOs in the community.

World Bank officer Nigel Roberts reported that conditions for the Palestinians had become worse since the signing of the Oslo accords and the Bank's entry into the economic picture in 1993. "The per capita income decreased in real terms by up to one-third since the beginning of the peace process, and unemployment has risen from between 12 and 15 percent to between 20 and 30 percent," he noted. "What government in the Western world that we are familiar with could sustain in a three-year period a collapse in wages of one-third, up to 40 percent in Gaza, and a tripling of unemployment to a level of one-third of the population? If you include severe underemployment, you will probably be looking at 50 to 60 percent of the refugee population in Gaza and the areas of the West Bank."

Roberts predicted that "if conditions continue to deteriorate much further, the Bank may find itself in welfare rather than in market development." Discussing problems of refugees in occupied Palestine, Roberts said that since the Oslo accords were signed, the cycle of repression has grown. The Israelis had closed the borders 75 days in the first nine months of 1997, not allowing Palestinians to reach their jobs in Israel. In 1996 there were 140 days of total or limited closures.

The problems facing the Palestinians will not be resolved easily, the speakers agreed, until the issues of human rights for the Palestinian refugees are taken seriously by the international community, and greater efforts are made to raise their standard of living and return a semblance of normalcy to their lives.

—Carol Morelli-Farmer