Secularists Won First Round Without Bloodshed, But Islamists Expect Victory in 1999 Election

By Marvine Howe

It's time-out in Turkey. Tensions have eased after the secular forces which have dominated this Muslim country for the past three-quarters of a century risked serious disaffection at the grassroots level by taking control away from a democratically elected Islamist prime minister. The secular Turkish Republic's first Islamist-led government expired without causing a dramatic upheaval, but it had demonstrated that the Islamists are a power to be reckoned with.

Both sides now are gearing up for early elections sometime next year and their mutual target is the soaring 40 percent undecided vote. First a new census must be taken, new election laws drafted and voter registration updated, which could change the political landscape.

At the same time, the Constitutional Court must decide on the fate of Refah (Welfare) Partisi, the Islamist party which won the last general elections two years ago and headed an uneasy coalition with the secular right-wing True Path Party for 11 months. A state prosecutor has accused Refah of acting as the "focal point of anti-secularist activities,'' and called for its closure. Refah's leaders say they will appeal any decision to ban the party before the European Court of Human Rights. They are also making preparations for an alternative Islamist party, should Refah be closed down.

Modern Turkey's first experiment in Islamist rule cannot be seen as an historic compromise or a move toward national reconciliation. On the contrary, it left the country more polarized than ever. Led by a group of determined generals, the secular establishment, including women's groups, big business, labor, artists and much of the media, united to force Islamist Prime Minister Necmettin Erbakan to resign on charges that Islamists have been plotting to restore a Muslim theocratic state and must be stopped.

Islamists, who now form a shadow society of their own with their professional and business associations, women's organizations and media, are persuaded that the recent political crisis was fabricated in an attempt to eliminate their growing influence, and they are determined to return to power.

Grievous Mistakes

Grievous mistakes were made by all concerned during the rule of Erbakan and his junior partner, Tansu Ciller, secular leader of the True Path party. It was a troubled period and not very much got done, but still there were no deviations from Turkey's basic domestic and foreign policies. One significant result of the Islamist-led coalition is that it ruled and then bowed out, indicating that in Turkey, Islam and democracy are not inherently incompatible. Equally important is the fact that the senior military officers who spearheaded the opposition to Erbakan's government have left the scene, and four out of five key commanders have gone into normal retirement.

President Suleyman Demirel, 73, who presided over the formation of the Islamist-led coalition and would later collaborate in its demise, received me in his sumptuous office in Cankaya Palace in Ankara, near Ataturk's old home. His words were a clear warning to Refah and any other Islamist group that might seek power. "Islam has nothing to do with the political arena," he said. "This is a secular country. If someone is using Islam for political purposes, it's wrong....

"The 550 deputies who are elected by free will of the people all over the country have taken up their duties after formally taking the oath and stating in front of the nation that they would abide by "laicism'' and the principles set by Ataturk. The basic principles of the Turkish Republic are set out in the constitution which stipulates that the Turkish Republic is a democratic, secular and social legal state. This cannot be amended, nor can an amendment even be proposed.''

Constitutionally entrusted with the defense of Turkey's secular republic, the armed forces have intervened directly three times since 1960 "to restore order" and have made it very clear they would do so again.

This time, however, it wasn't necessary. At the end of February, the National Security Council issued a list of 18 "recommendations'' to curtail everything Islamic from propaganda, education and dress to religious brotherhoods and financial institutions.

When Erbakan's government didn't comply with the "recommendations," the military again made a verbal assault on "radical Islam.'' Through widely publicized briefings in early June, the Turkish General Staff presented detailed evidence of Islamist activities purportedly aimed at changing the secular democratic regime, and accused the ruling Refah Party of negligence, or even complicity.

The generals' determination shook the coalition. One by one, members of Ms. Ciller's True Path Party began to defect until it became clear the government no longer had a parliamentary majority. On June 18, Mr. Erbakan resigned, urging that the premiership be turned over to his coalition partner. But President Demirel instead called on secular conservative Mesut Yilmaz, a former prime minister, to form a government of "reconciliation'' with prominent figures of the left, right and center—but no Islamists.

Prime Minister Yilmaz and his chief partner, socialist Deputy Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit, who are working surprisingly well together, now have the unenviable task of carrying out the generals' "recommendations" to curb Islamic fundamentalism. Their first move to close some religious schools provoked strong protests. At the same time, Yilmaz declared the ambitious mission to restore "a clean society,'' pledging to fight corruption and organized crime. This means open war against Ms. Ciller, who was shielded against serious corruption charges by her Islamist coalition partners.

The all-secular coalition, which came to power ostensibly to steer the country to the polls, now has indicated there is no hurry. Ruling circles contend that major changes in the electoral system are essential to ensure that democracy is served. On the other hand, the Islamists have begun to press for elections as soon as possible—both to take advantage of structures set up during their rule, and to capitalize on what most observers believe is a significant increase in their popular support. Refah is still the largest single political force in parliament and has a major say in the shape of the election legislation. Therefore, it is not at all sure what the new rules will look like or which way new elections will turn.

The Islamic surge in Turkey has been a progressive movement. In the early 1920s, Turkish revolutionary Mustafa Kemal Ataturk abolished all forms of political Islam to create a progressive Western-style nation on the ashes of the Ottoman Empire. His new secular state placed control of all religious authorities under a Directorate of Religious Affairs but allowed the private practice of religion, which continued to flourish mainly in rural areas.

After Ataturk's death in 1938, the secular parties soon made concessions to their religious constituencies, condoning activities of Islamic brotherhoods and encouraging the spread of Imam Hatip (preachers) schools for the training of prayer leaders for Turkey's mosques. Even the staunchly secular military leadership declared religious courses obligatory in state schools in their attempt to de-politicize the country after the 1980 coup. It was widely believed that militant Islamists were a well-contained minority in this country of 99 percent Muslims.

In recent years, however, Kemalists, as the followers of Ataturk are known, have apprehensively watched the growth of an Islamist movement. In 1994 local elections, Erbakan's Refah Party captured 327 municiplities, including Ankara and Istanbul. In December 1995, Refah won general elections with 21.3 percent of the vote.

As former Ankara bureau chief of The New York Times, I witnessed the military coup in 1980, when the army intervened to end a bitter struggle between left- and right-wing extremists. Those were dangerous times, with widespread violence on the streets, in cafes, and on campuses. There were shortages of everything, including coffee, fuel oil, and pharmaceuticals. And there was brutal suppression of civil rights, with a sweeping crackdown on political parties and all kinds of associations, acompanied by ruthless censorship and rule by military dictate.

This time was different. For two months I traveled around the country, talking to prominent secularists, Islamists and foreign observers to see what had gone wrong with the ecumenical experiment in government and to find out what lessons had been learned. It was mostly a coup of words, warnings, threats.

There is still violence to be sure, namely the protracted war between Kurdish nationalists and the armed forces, but it is confined largely to the southeast. There also are occasional mystery murders and assaults on the media, rumored to be the work of state-controlled gangs. And limited right-left clashes still take place on campuses. But the real struggle now involves Islamists and secularists in a contest for people's hearts and minds.

"Refah's main mistake was overconfidence,'' Feride Acar, professor of political sciences at Middle East Technical University, told me as we sat in her walled garden enjoying Ankara's balmy summer weather. The Refah Islamists, she said, thought they could push further but didn't realize they had reached the limits and had let their radicals become "too vocal.''

Refah knew it could not give its followers any real change, and so tried to satisfy them with symbolic gestures—like proposing the construction of mosques in the heart of Istanbul and Ankara. Erbakan's "most critical error,'' Acar said, was hosting a dinner for leaders of Muslim brotherhoods at the prime minister's residence, implying official recognition.

Professor Acar gave the military leaders credit for doing what the secular opposition had failed to do: build a civil coalition with fragmented parties, the intelligentsia, labor and employers' unions, foundations and other civic associations. But she warned that closing Refah and pursuing action against MUSIAD, the Islamic Industrialists and Businessmen's Association, would be a grave mistake.

"The main trouble is that Refah was not governing. In fact it was not able to take on today's problems,'' said Taner Berksoy, head of the Economics Faculty at Marmara University in Istanbul. "When civil government fails to govern, the army increases its role.''

Known as a moderate Islamist, independent MP Korkut Ozal accused Erbakan of "indecisiveness" and "poor judgment'' in handling the demands of the generals on the National Security Council, but said the Erbakan government's performance was better than expected. To protest the closure of religious schools, Ozal recently quit the ruling Motherland Party, founded by his older brother, the late President Turgut Ozal. In his office on the Asian side of Istanbul, Ozal told me, "Refah was the only clean party and the Refah deputies and cabinet people were clean boys with good intentions. But unfortunately they didn't clean up the mess around them,'' He specifically referred to the Susurluk scandal, a fatal car crash last November involving a senior police offical, a heroin smuggler wanted by Interpol, a former beauty queen and an MP from Ms. Ciller's True Path Party (the only survivor).

Fehmi Koru is Ankara bureau chief for the moderate Islamist newspaperZaman, which has criticized Refah in the past for not keeping its promises. "Erbakan was right to resign and even if Refah is closed down, it will come back under another guise to win the next election,'' Koru predicted when we met in his office. He was particularly bitter about the tendency of the military and the secular media to put all religious-minded people in one basket. In an emotional editorial, Koru charged that "people, institutions and organizations are currently victims of a witchhunt," comparable to the McCarthy period in the United States in the 1950s.

Receiving journalists in Refah's parliamentary chambers, Abdullah Gul, the Islamist party's deputy chairman, politely but firmly accused the Turkish armed forces of intervening in politics within recent months and expressed the hope that this would now end. Gul, who is often mentioned as a successor to Erbakan, declared that the lawsuit against Refah was "not based on lawful grounds.''

For all his Third World campaign rhetoric, Erbakan made no basic changes in Turkey's pro-Western foreign policy, which is aimed primarily at full membership in the European Union, according to Onur Oymen, former undersecretary of the Foreign Ministry. Ambassador Oymen gave Erbakan credit for new openings to the East with the creation of the D-8, a loose group of eight large developing Muslim countries stretching from Egypt to Indonesia.

Western diplomats, who asked not to be named, faulted the Refah government for populist measures and incompetence, but noted that the Refah administrators were no worse than secularists. On the other hand, these diplomats severely criticized the military moves against Islamic education and Islamic businesses as interference in the private sector.

Turkish military leaders are said to be haunted by neighboring Iran and the specter of a radical Islamic takeover of the neighboring Westernized Muslim state. Military sources say they have been tracking Islamists for the past decade, out of concern that Turkey could go the way of Iran. They have piled up a good deal of information, including specific evidence of transfers of money from Iran and Saudi Arabia (before the Gulf war). General Cevik Bir is said to have informed Washington of these findings a year ago and asserted that Turkey would not repeat the mistakes of the Shah.

That threat has forged the unlikely special link between the armed forces and secular women's groups and individuals. "We're not going to be another Iran,'' Aysely Goksoy vowed over coffee in her comfortable Ankara apartment. Ms. Goksoy is president of the 200,000-member Turkish Women's Association, a key participant in the movement that finally forced Prime Minister Erbakan to resign. An independent MP formerly with True Path, Ms. Goksoy broke with Ms. Ciller after she formed the coalition with the Islamists. Ms. Goksoy holds that Refah remains a threat because of large sums of money it receives from Iran, Saudi Arabia and Islamic fundamentalists in Germany. The money goes to woo the poorest sectors, particularly young people. In response, she said, a group of women, businessmen and academics, with help from the military, has recently launched a Movement for Youth against Fanaticism.

Other civic groups have already taken up the Refah challenge. In a newly restored Byzantine cistern in the traditional Fatih quarter of Istanbul, several hundred young people can be seen doing their own thing, learning English by computer or browsing through the Science and Technology Video Library, studying traditional music and folk dances, or playing basketball, pingpong or chess. "Our programs are an alternative to learning the Qur'an,'' smiled Halide Pek, a professor at Marmara University. Opened in 1995, the Turkish Education Volunteers Foundation (TEGV) center was a joint venture by the main Turkish Businessmen's Association and the mayor of Fatih and is run largely by 200 volunteers. With 13,000 neighborhood-based members, it has become a model for similar centers in other cities.

Women were the most fervent supporters of Ms. Ciller, an American-educated economist, when she became Turkey's first woman prime minister in 1992. They believed she would end the pervasive patriarchal society and correct social inequalities. Ciller's accord with Refah was widely seen as a betrayal of Ataturk's revolution in women's rights and an expedient to save her own skin from corruption charges.

Nevertheless, many women are still convinced the only way to change things in Turkey is to get more women into the political system. A group of prominent women has set up a new organization called Kader, the local version of Emily's List. Their aim is to send 55 women (then 10 percent and now 2.4 percent) to parliament by the year 2000. "We are fed up. We want a clean society,'' says Sirin Tekeli, former director of the Women's Library and a leader of Kader.

Imren Aykut, the soft-spoken new minister of environment, talked to me at the Ankara office of the leading Turkish daily, Hurriyet. "This time Ciller will have to face the court. People think someone cannot accumulate so much wealth in so little time. The Turkish people expect wrongdoings should not go unpunished...

"Another important issue is the enormous amount of money Refah receives from unknown sources which is distributed to the poorest areas. The party is buying votes with goods, food, heat and sending children to schools and clinics. There's no way the other parties can compete with them.

"Villagers are flooding into cities and cannot find jobs, but Refah gives them jobs and sends their kids to high school and universities. Young women are being brainwashed; we're losing them.

"Our top priority is the ministry of education. There must be a general review of state schools, their curricula and personnel. And in the first phase, Imam Hatip schools must be closed down.''

Over protests in the streets and filibustering among Islamist deputies, the Yilmaz government won parliamentary approval on Aug. 16 of an education reform, proclaiming eight years' compulsory schooling, which means the end of religious schools at the grade-school level. But the fight is not over. Although Imam Hatip demonstrations have been banned, Islamist militants hold spontaneous protests at different mosques around the country every Friday. It is clear the Islamists have chosen the Imam Hatip schools as their principle battle cry and will carry it through to the elections.

"The people have shown that we will never sacrifice the Imam Hatip and Qur'anic schools,'' says Ibrahim Solmaz, president of Onder, the Imam Hatip graduates association. He blames the media and some political parties for giving the schools "a false image as hotbeds of extremism.''

Amidst the brouhaha over Islamic schools, some sober voices like Soli Ozel, professor of political science at Bosphorus University in Istanbul, insist that the root cause of Refah's rise is not Qur'anic schools but the tremendous income disparity. According to recent figures, annual family income ranges from $22,344 for the top 12 percent to $1,300 for the lowest 40 percent. Ridvan Budak, head of the leftwing trade union confederation DISK, agrees that it was the failure of the secular political parties to correct the serious social inequalities that led to the fundamentalist surge.

"Turkey was headed for either a direct military coup or radical Islamic takeover,'' Mr. Budak, said, explaining DISK's unprecedented front with conservative confederation Turk-Is and the employers' union. Having experienced several military coups and seen the fundamentalists in Iran, the union leader said DISK and the other organizations have come together "to seek integration into Western, modern, secular, democratic life.''

Marvine Howe is former Ankara bureau chief of The New York Times.