Washington Report on Middle East Affairs, December 1997, Page 30

Talking Turkey

Military Crackdown on Islamic Education Puts Crushing Burden on Antiquated School System

By James M. Dorsey

Turkey's three-month-old, military-backed left-right minority government, headed by conservative Prime Minister Mesut Yilmaz, has to be successful to avoid an Islamist return to power in the country's next election.

As a result, Mr. Yilmaz and his colleagues have been going to great lengths to project an image—faithfully relayed by the secular media—of an efficient and united coalition capable of tackling the country's huge economic and political problems and of unveiling new projects.

Intellectuals, businessmen and defenders of secularism have been willing to give the Yilmaz government the benefit of the doubt. If anything, they have hailed Yilmaz's efforts to postpone an early election expected some time in 1998. Yilmaz promised three months ago to take Turkey to the polls some two years before the next scheduled election in the year 2000 as part of his successful cobbling together of a coalition designed to replace the Islamist-led government of his predecessor, Welfare Party leader Necmettin Erbakan. More recently, Yilmaz said he did not expect an election before the fall of next year.

With prospects of at least another year in government Turks, accustomed to political volatility, are perceiving that as a reasonably long and therefore stable stretch. The government's election strategy is likely to be influenced by a Constitutional Court decision expected before the end of this year on whether to ban the Welfare Party for violating the secular nature of the Turkish constitution.

Mr. Yilmaz's center-right Motherland Party, in a parallel move, is seeking parliamentary approval of a bill that would allow for court proceedings against deputies even before the assembly has lifted their immunity. This would allow the government not only to act against Welfare, but also against its former coalition partner and Motherland Party rival, the True Path Party, headed by former Foreign Minister Tansu Ciller. Already, authorities are preparing a series of corruption cases against various officials of the former government, including the mayor of Ankara.

These moves have served to reassure the military and significant parts of the elite. But they could strengthen rather than weaken Islamist elements in Turkish society.

Most ordinary Turks have so far experienced the Yilmaz coalition as the government that has introduced the most significant price increases in recent years. Gasoline has jumped 32 percent, telephone calls 50 percent, sugar 35 percent. An array of new taxes have been introduced to finance the curbing of religious education demanded by the military. Much of the increase in tax revenues also is likely to be used to bridge the government's yawning budget deficit, estimated this year at 2,500 trillion Turkish lira ($14.5 billion).

The law does not abolish the concept that the expression of dissident views is a crime.

The government's move at the military's behest to curtail religious education has prompted an almost weekly ritual of Friday demonstrations outside mosques after midday prayers. The rushing through parliament of the educational reform bill has meant that Islamic education has been restricted, while badly needed improvements in Turkey's out-dated and overburdened school system have yet to be developed.

Since coming to office, on the economic front the Yilmaz government has promised to speed up privatization, tighten monetary policy through an agreement between the Central Bank and the Treasury, curb government subsidies and avoid election-year giveaways. However, the government has come through on only some of those promises.

On the plus side, newly appointed privatization chief Ugur Bayar brings experience and zeal to the job. He has promised to initiate the sell-off of big-ticket items such as a huge steel plant, state economic enterprises in the energy sector and Turkish Airlines before the end of the year. Economy Minister Gunes Taner says Turkey will raise $4.5 billion in privatization revenues by year's end.

A key question is whether the Yilmaz government will at last start tackling inflation, and if so, how? Central Bank Governor Gazi Ercel and Treasury Undersecretary Mafhi Egilmez are calling for a three-year government program to reduce chronic inflation fueled by huge public deficits. They have drafted various scenarios for Turkey's economic development, ranging from allowing inflation to hit triple digits to a radical structural reform aimed at reducing inflation from the mid-80s to approximately 30 percent by the end of next year.

Perennial Economic Problems

Tackling Turkey's perennial economic problems will have to involve cutting the budget deficit, now at around 9 percent of the country's gross domestic product. The government will also have to reform the deficit-creating social pension system, improve present tax-collection procedures, reduce big farm subsidies, and accelerate privatization.

That seems a tall order for a government likely to face an election within 12 months. The Yilmaz government moreover includes the left-wing Democratic Left Party (DSP), a staunch opponent of privatization in the past, and is dependent in parliament on the support of the social democratic Republican People's Party (CHP), which also has a checkered record when it comes to endorsing the sell-off of state assets.

Already, the government has hinted that it may not adhere to strict austerity. It has announced investment plans involving billions of dollars and has yet to freeze wages effectively.

Politically, the Yilmaz government has kept some of its promises, including adoption of a law suspending the sentences of people jailed not for their own writing but for being in charge of controversial publications. In many ways, however, the law fails to meet international human rights standards in that it does not abolish the concept that the expression of dissident views is a crime.

The Yilmaz government also has said that it would like to lift the state of emergency which has been in force in the war-torn Kurdish southeast of the country for the past nine years. So far, however, Mr. Yilmaz has failed to persuade the powerful military to go along with his proposal.