With Lebanese President's Second Term, Democracy Suffers Severe Blow

By Carole Dagher

On Nov. 24, Lebanese President Elias Hrawi begins a new term of office, renewing a presidential mandate that was supposed to end when he finished his first six-year term. In fact, 1995 presidential "elections" mark a turning point in the history of what once was described as Lebanese democracy, where a new president was elected every six years and a new parliament every four years. Because that did not happen this time, members of the political opposition called the 1995 events a "masquerade," "a severe blow to democracy," and a "dangerous precedent."

From the beginning of the constitutional deadline for the election (a period of two months, running from Sept. 24 to Nov. 24), it was obvious that there would not be real elections. None of the would-be competing candidates actually ran for the presidency because it was said that the Syrian regime strongly favored continuation in the presidency of Hrawi (who is barred by the Lebanese constitution from succeeding himself) while peace negotiations on the Syrian-Israeli track are deadlocked.

Allowing Damascus a hand in Lebanon during the negotiations was the "regional circumstance" invoked by those who lobbied for extension of President Hrawi's term. But the Syrians did not officially endorse any such position until the last minute, thus heating up the political climate. So the election became the center of contending political calculations of the Lebanese leadership troika made up of President Hrawi, speaker of parliament Nabih Berri, and Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri.

In the preliminary maneuvering, Hariri first reshaped his government and then, with his control over the council of ministers assured, pushed for an amendment of the constitution to allow an extension of President Hrawi's—and by inference his own government's—mandate.

Berri, refusing to be railroaded by the prime minister, blocked the amendment process and argued that a parliamentary majority was opposed to any change in the democratic voting procedure. Amending the constitution also was very unpopular with public opinion. Polls indicated that more than 89 percent of the Lebanese opposed any extension of the president's mandate. One of the most persistent voices against any change in the constitution was that of Monsignor Nasrallah Sfeir, head of the Maronite Church, to which the president of the Lebanese republic traditionally belongs. Monsignor Sfeir emphasized in his regular Sunday sermons the constitutional requirement for a true presidential election through a free parliamentary vote.

More than 89 percent of the Lebanese opposed any extension of the president's mandate.

As Lebanese opposition to the renewal of President Hrawi's legal mandate grew, Syrian officials decided to reveal their own intentions with three highly publicized steps. In a much discussed interview with the Lebanese daily As-Safir in late September, Syrian Vice President Abd al-Halim Khaddam noted that while in Damascus, Berri and Hariri had come to an agreement on the question of an extended mandate. On Oct. 2, the daily al-Hayat reported that the head of the Syrian military intelligence in Lebanon, Ghazi Kan'an, had informed several deputies that Syria was in favor of an extension and instructed them to vote accordingly. General Kan'an also was reported to have instructed the deputies that they were to vote publicly for a constitutional amendment allowing an extension of Hrawi's term by raising their hands rather than voting according to the legally secret ballot. This report raised a furor against Syrian indifference to constitutional procedures and many expressed their worries concerning the future of democracy in Lebanon.

The third and decisive event that ended opposition to the extension among parliamentary deputies was direct intervention by Syrian President Hafez Assad himself. In an Oct. 11 interview with the Egyptian daily Al-Ahram, Assad asserted that "there is, in Lebanon, a national consensus over the extension of the president's mandate."

An amendment of the constitution took place on Oct. 19 and the presidential election was replaced by a renewal of President Hrawi's mandate for another three years, to end on Nov. 24, 1998. Only 11 deputies out of 128 remained faithful to their initial opposition and voted against the extension. They became popular heroes overnight and were praised in editorials by all of the major newspapers. The editorial writers expressed the fear that the next parliamentary elections, scheduled for June 1996, also would be undemocratic, just like the presidential election.

Analysts also cited the Syrian-Israeli stalemate, and the absence of U.S. willingness to interfere in the Lebanese presidential elections or to "discuss" them with Damascus, to explain the extension of the term of President Hrawi, a faithful Damascus ally.

Carole Dagher is a Lebanese political and economic reporter.