The 100th Congress: Democrats in Control

By Dennis J. Wamsted

After six years as the majority party in the US Senate, the Republicans once again have been relegated to minority status. Demonstrating unexpected strength, Democrats triumphed in 20 of the 34 contested senatorial elections on November 4, 1986, to regain control of the upper house of Congress by a margin of 55-to-45. [Previously, the Republicans had held a 53-to-47 advantage.] To no one's surprise, the Democrats also retained their solid, approximately 80-vote majority in the House of Representatives. Consequently, for the first time since President Ronald Reagan won the presidency in 1980, Congress will be completely controlled by the Democrats. What this will mean for US Middle Eastern policy is not clear at this writing, but it is safe to say that the US is likely to be even more supportive of Israel than it has been in the recent past—no easy task in itself.

The New Senate

In the Senate, all of that body's committee chairmanships and leadership posts will pass from Republicans to Democrats. Most important for US Middle Eastern policy are the Committees on Appropriations, Armed Services, and Foreign Relations. Subject to the approval of the Democratic Party Caucus, current Appropriations Committee Chairman Mark Hatfield (R-OR) will be succeeded by John Stennis (D-MS), retiring Armed Services Committee chairman Barry Goldwater (R-AZ) will be followed by Sam Nunn (D-GA), and Claiborne Pell (P-RI) will succeed Richard Lugar (R-IN) as chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee.

Two other key power transfers will take place on the Foreign Operations Subcommittee of the Appropriations Committee and the Near Eastern and South Asian Affairs Subcommittee of the Foreign Relations Committee. Daniel Inouye (D-HI) is slated to assume the chairmanship of the Foreign Operations Subcommittee, and Paul Sarbanes (D-MD) is likely to become the new chairman of the Near Eastern and South Asian Affairs Subcommittee. [The Republican chairmen of these two subcommittees, respectively, were Robert Kasten (R-WI) and Rudy Boschwitz (R-MN).] Inouye, it should be remembered, was the co-sponsor—along with Kasten—of a 1985 proposal to reduce the interest rate on Israel's outstanding military loans from the US to five percent from about 11 percent; thereby effectively giving the Israeli government an additional $500 million in aid. (All current US economic and military assistance to Israel is on a grant rather than a loan basis. The interest payments are due only on US loans to Israel from earlier years).

Although it is uncertain exactly how much influence they had, pro-Israel PACs (political action committees) enjoyed an enviable success rate in the recent elections. Only one candidate—former Idaho governor John V. Evans—who received a substantial amount of monetary support from the 80 plus pro-Israel PACs failed to win. [Incumbent Senator Steve Symms (R-ID) edged Evans by a 52-to-48 percent margin in one of this year's many close senatorial elections.]

Beyond this, it is entirely possible that support, or lack of it, from pro-Israel PACs played a decisive role in at least 10 other Senate races. In particular, eight newly-elected or re-elected Democratic Senators who benefited from substantial pro-Israel PAC support won with 53 percent or less of the popular vote. Without that monetary support, it is likely that some, perhaps all, of these Democratic contenders would have been defeated. For example, Senator Alan Cranston (D-CA)—who by the end of the second quarter of 1986 had already received some $126,000 from pro-Israel PACs—defeated former Republican congressman Ed Zschau by a 51-to-49 percent margin. Similarly, pro-Israel PAC support also played a role in the close, but successful re-election campaigns of two Republican Senators—Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania and Robert Kasten of Wisconsin.

Changes in the House

Even though most House incumbents were re-elected, there will be a number of changes in the 100th Congress that could influence US Middle Eastern policy. In particular, there will be three new members of the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Europe and the Middle East. One of the subcommitee's former Democratic members, Harry Reid of Nevada, is that state's newly elected senator (replacing Paul Laxalt, who retired). [Reid, one of the eight winning Democratic senatorial candidates mentioned earlier, won with only 51 percent of the vote, while receiving substantial pro-Israel PAC support.] Two other subcommittee members, both Republicans, also will need to be replaced. One, former Representative Mark Siljander, lost his Republican primary race, while the second, former Representative Ed Zschau, lost the hotly contested California Senate race to incumbent Alan Cranston.

Beyond this, few changes occurred. For example, the chairmen and ranking minority members of the three key full committees with impact on US policy in the Middle East were all re-elected. Respectively, they are: Dante Fascell (D-FL) and William Broomfield (R-MI) of the House Foreign Affairs Committee; Jamie Whitten (D-MS) and Silvio Conte (R-MA) of the House Appropriations Committee; and Les Aspin (D-WI) and William Dickinson (R-AL) of the House Armed Services Committee. Likewise, Lee Hamilton (D-IN) and Benjamin Gilman (R-NY) of the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Europe and the Middle East, as well as David Obey (D-WI) and Jack Kemp (R-NY) of the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Foreign Operations, all were easily re-elected.

Dennis J. Wamsted is a Washington-based free-lance writer specializing in Middle East affairs and the US Congress.