Arab-American Voting Patterns Reflect U.S. Regional Preferences

By Richard H. Curtiss

A telephone poll of potential Arab-American voters released Oct. 10 by the Arab American Institute and Arab Network of America revealed a surprising concurrence between Arab-American voters and the views of the general population in the regions in which they live.

The poll of 403 likely voters also supported some demographic conclusions about Arab Americans as a group. Of the sampling, 55.2 percent were immigrants and 44.8 percent were American born. Three in five (60.l percent) had traveled to the Middle East, while two in five (39.8 percent) had not. Three-quarters of the respondents said they had friends or family in the Middle East.

A strong majority of 61.3 percent said they follow Middle East news “very closely,” while another 31.9 percent said they follow it “somewhat closely.” Only a tiny 6.8 percent minority said they do “not follow it closely.”

Another overwhelming majority said they supported an independent Palestinian state “strongly” (60.3 percent) or “somewhat strongly” (21.2 percent). By contrast, those who disagreed with a Palestinian state “somewhat” (2.3 percent) or “strongly” (5.2 percent) totaled only 7.5 percent. On this question 11 percent were undecided.

On Israel’s right to exist, 60.3 percent “strongly agreed” and 21.2 percent “somewhat agreed,” for a total of 85.7 percent positively inclined toward Israel’s right to exist. On the same question, 2.4 percent “somewhat disagreed” and 5.4 percent “strongly disagreed,” for a total of only 7.8 who disagreed with Israel’s right to exist. Another 6.5 percent were not sure.

Support for lifting the ban on U.S. citizen travel to Lebanon was almost as strong, with 53 percent strongly agreeing, 24.9 percent somewhat agreeing, 5.5 percent somewhat disagreeing, 4.7 percent strongly disagreeing, and 11.9 percent undecided.

Support for lifting the sanctions against Iraq was far weaker: 24.7 percent strongly agreed, 21.2 percent somewhat agreed (total positive 45.9 percent) while 11.9 percent somewhat disagreed, 27.7 percent strongly disagreed (total negative 39.6 percent), and 14.5 percent were not sure.

Of the potential voters polled, 42 percent are registered Republicans, 36.5 percent registered Democrats, and 21.4 percent are Independents or registered in third parties or no party. One-third (33.l percent) have contributed to a political candidate and 63.5 percent have not.

An overwhelming majority of the Arab Americans polled said a candidate’s position on the Middle East was very important (57.4 percent), or somewhat important (30.9 percent) for a positive total of 88.3 percent. Only 8.2 percent said it was not important to them.

Yet when asked how they planned to vote, the responses of the Arab Americans seemed very much in keeping with general voting patterns as of the same period in the various parts of the country in which they live. Overall 43.4 percent planned to vote for Bill Clinton, 29.6 percent for Bob Dole, 6.5 percent for Ross Perot, 3.4 percent chose other candidates (particularly Ralph Nader, who is Arab American), and 17.2 percent remained undecided at the time of the poll approximately a month before the election.

Clinton’s lead over Dole was greatest in the East (49 to 29.7 percent) and the Great Lakes/Central area (43.6 to 22.7 percent). The gap was narrower in the West (37.4 to 28.1 percent), and the two candidates were very close in the South, with 41.4 percent for Clinton and 39.8 percent for Dole. As with other Americans, Clinton’s lead over Dole among men (41.8 to 31.8 percent) was weaker than his lead among women (45 to 27.4 percent).

The poll, which was conducted by the John Zogby Group International of New Hartford, NY(ck), was structured to reflect the ethnic background of the Arab-American population which, according to the poll, is: Lebanon 46.2 percent, Palestine 13.3 percent, Syria 10.8 percent, Egypt 8.9 percent, Jordan 4.4 percent, Iraq 3.3 percent, with “others,” including some who identified themselves as “Arab,” “mixed,” or “American” totaling 13.1 percent.