As Sectarianism Rises, India Braces for Crucial State Elections

By M. M. Ali

The spontaneous world outpouring of concern for the families of thousands killed in the Sept. 30 earthquake that devastated an area in Maharashtra state in central India was a sad diversion from the depressing news of rising sectarianism threatening the weak secular foundations of Indian democracy. Among the dozens of countries, including the U.S., which offered relief supplies for the hurt and homeless even before India could assess its needs, if any, was Pakistan, which offered help to its former opponent in the three wars that have convulsed the subcontinent since the independence of India and Pakistan in 1947.

The reconciliation implied by the offer, unfortunately, was not reflected in political news concerning the area. In a recent seminar in Washington, an Indian participant bluntly warned that any attempt from outside to disturb the status quo in Kashmir would bring down such Hindu wrath on the 120 million Muslims scattered all over India that the massacres of Bosnian Muslims "would look like a picnic."

Reflecting the same theme, correspondent Edward Gargan reported from India in the Sept. 17 New York Times: "Slowly, gradually, but with the relentlessness of floodwaters, a growing Hindu rage toward India's Muslim minority has been spreading among India's solid middle class Hindus—its merchants and accountants, its lawyers and engineers—creating uncertainty about future ability of adherents of the two religions to get along."

Seeking to ride these dangerous undercurrents to political power is India's largest opposition group, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The BJP would replace secular India with "Hindutva" (the land of the Hindus). The concept is advanced by BJP leaders L.K. Advani and Murli Manohar Joshi and by the even more extreme Bal Thackrey of Bombay.

BJP's strength is in the vast area known as the Hindi belt, and the key state is Uttar Pradesh in the north. Indian Muslims traditionally have voted with the Nehru dynasty's secular Congress Party, which directed the country for more than 40 years. With the assassination of Rajiv Gandhi, that dynasty has ended, at least for the time being.

Long-standing tensions between Hindus and Muslims have taken a much uglier turn since the destruction of the 16th century Muslim mosque in Ayodhya, Uttar Pradesh. Thousands of Hindu militants dismantled the mosque, brick by brick, on grounds that it had been built by Muslim conquerors on a site revered as the birthplace of the Hindu deity Ram. A commission appointed by the Indian government to investigate the politically charged incident, witnessed by the world on television, has made no progress to date.

Congress, under Prime Minister Narasimha Rao, a man who was called out of retirement as a compromise candidate to succeed Rajiv Gandhi, holds power with a slender majority in the Lokh Sabha, the lower house of the Indian parliament, thanks to the help of left-wing political parties. The four states—Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh and Rajasthan—where governments headed by the BJP were abolished and president's rule established last year after widespread communal riots following the Ayodhya affair, all will hold elections in November.

In a bid to halt BJP demagoguery and also to reassure Muslim voters, Rao tried to prohibit exploitation of religion in politics. His attempt failed when left-wing parties declined to support him. Now all eyes are turned to Uttar Pradesh, where the BJP is pursuing its Hindutva platform. There "the three Singhs"—Arjun Singh, who is vying for the Congress leadership and the prime minister's seat; V.P. Singh of the Janata Dal, who continues to appeal to the Muslim minority and the Harijans (lower caste Hindus); and Mulayam Singh, who is running as the UP's "favorite son"—are the stalwarts on the other side. Unless the three Singhs come to some understanding, however, the BJP is likely to return to power in the UP and that may encourage its following in the other three states. The entire climate is charged with communal tension. Writes India's largest magazine, India Today: "The end of November will witness what may turn out to be one of the most crucial elections in the country in the last two decades . . . the 145-million-strong electorate of the Hindi heartland will go to the polls. . . It could turn out to be a referendum on the BJP's Hindutva plank and give a new ideological dimension to the nation's politics. . . Prime Minister Narasimha Rao's own survival is at stake."

Indian minorities, particularly the Muslims, are terrified after the demolition of the Babri Masjid (Ayodhya Mosque), the Bombay riots and now the prospects of a much worse situation developing in practically the whole of north India. BJP offers them no comfort, nor are Congress and the other non-BJP groups of much help. The worst fear of minority groups is that if the BJP senses that the elections are not likely to go its way, it is capable of creating yet another Ayodhya. Hindus, for example, venerate the cow and India's Muslims eat beef. This alone has been the cause of hundreds of riots in India. In a charged environment, a planned provocation can set off a major round of killings. A whole lot is riding on the November elections.

International Relations

Indian Prime Minister Narasimha Rao took time out from the disconcerting internal political and economic scene for two significant visits abroad—one to China and the other to Iran. One result was agreement in Beijing to a "line of control'' (Aksai Chin) in a treacherous piece of real estate in the snow-clad Himalayan border. That was the line to which the Chinese troops withdrew after their 1962 assault on India. The land lies inside the already disputed territory of Kashmir.

By agreeing to the line of control, New Delhi has reduced the military tension with China that has cost it a great deal economically and militarily. India has made another significant international move by extending a friendly hand to Iran's Shi'i Islamist regime, bordering the Muslim Central Asian republics and the Arab world. If India's interest is largely political, Iran's interest is largely economic—access to the large Indian market to replace markets lost to the U.S. boycott.

The Kashmir issue, however, continues to be a thorn in India's side. The thorn wants to work its way out, and it is a continuing source of tension with Pakistan.

Since both India and Pakistan acknowledge nuclear capability, CIA Director James Woolsey recently observed to a congressional committee:

"The arms race between India and Pakistan poses perhaps the most probable prospect for future use of weapons of mass destruction, including nuclear weapons . . .Millions of innocent civilians in this densely populated region would be vulnerable. "

The Clinton administration, it appears, would like to see the dispute resolved through direct negotiations between India and Pakistan, but would not object to inclusion of Kashmiris in the discussions. Unofficially, Washington also has given its blessing to inclusion of Kashmir in "conflict resolution" exercises involving the U.S. foreign affairs establishment. While strong leaders in New Delhi and Islamabad merely have resisted pressure to resolve the Kashmir issue, weaker leaders in both countries may be tempted to exploit it for domestic political purposes.

No Soviet Veto

In the past, with the former Soviet Union prepared to use its veto in the U.N. Security Council to support India, the Kashmir problem seemed frozen. Now Russia is more likely to go along with the U.S., particularly after the firm political support offered by President Bill Clinton to Boris Yeltsin in the latter's confrontation with opponents in the Russian parliament. With a new government in Pakistan, the U.S. or the U.N. may find a window of opportunity opening after India completes its state elections.

Meanwhile India also is pursuing further economic privatization in order to attract foreign investors. The World Bank and its subsidiaries, along with the International Monetary Fund, all have pledged adequate loan guarantees and assistance to India for its development program and structural adjustment. Expressing his gratitude to international finance institutions, the Indian finance minister, during a recent visit to Washington, explained:

"We are determined to stay the course and we have no doubt that we shall succeed." Like India's minorities, however, the international agencies are nervously awaiting the outcome of the November elections.