Egypt's Third-Term President Facing Daunting Problems

By James J. Napoli

"In fact," said one Cairo cab driver, "we had three names on the ballot to choose from in this election: Mohamed Hosni and Mubarak." That kind of good-humored cynicism kept average Egyptians from despair in the face of the superfluous hoopla in the weeks leading up to the Oct. 4 referendum that rubber-stamped President Mohamed Hosni Mubarak's third six year term of office.

His name—and face—was the only one on the ballot. So there was no need to project the winner. More than 18 million voters were eligible to go to the polls to mark "yes" or "no" on the ballot, but the only issue in doubt was the number of points above the 90th percentile that Mubarak would receive in support.

When votes were counted, he had received 94.9 percent of votes cast by the 84 percent of eligible voters who participated. There were few "no" votes in part because some of the opposition parties, including the largest of them, the liberal Wafd Party, were boycotting the referendum, and in part because voters had to use their national identity cards to obtain ballots.

Staying on Stage

Mubarak, who became president after Anwar Sadat was shot to death in a military parade in 1981, had once said he would not stand for a third term. But the pomp and circumstance at the 10th anniversary celebration of his regime left no doubt from that time on that Mubarak was not ready to step off the stage.

During his first two terms, Mubarak has directed Egypt with a moderate hand, expanding freedom for the press, allowing a semblance of political opposition, upgrading the armed forces and building infrastructure. Further, he has served as a useful mediator for disputes among Arab nations, and between Arab nations, like Sudan and Libya, and the West. He also has been a prod for conciliation between Israel and the PLO, in the spirit of the Camp David accords.

For the future, Mubarak promises more political liberalization and a range of economic reforms, including privatization of much of the public sector and incentives for small-scale entrepreneurs. The problems facing Mubarak in the next few years are daunting, however, and beg the question of why anyone would want to be president of Egypt.

The deal struck between the PLO and Israel, for one thing, may ironically work to Egypt's detriment. Economic aid promised by the United States and Europe to help make a go of Palestinian autonomy is likely to come out of other pots, including the one designated for Egypt.

Poor and middle-class Egyptians already are laboring under high prices and poor pay, a situation likely to be exacerbated—at least in the short run—by reforms endorsed by the International Monetary Fund. Further, officials here fear that Egypt, with its weak economy and myriad social problems, could be left out of a potentially dynamic economic bloc including Israel, the semi-autonomous Palestinian territories, Jordan, and perhaps even Lebanon, Syria and Morocco.

In a discussion of domestic problems facing the president, one Egyptian official told the Washington Report that Mubarak will have to focus on three areas if he is to defuse popular resentment at his regime and weaken the Islamic extremists: the sharp divisions between the rich and poor, the lack of services and employment in rural areas, and the popular perception of corruption in high places.

Despite the installation of natural gas lines, the metro and other infrastructure in Cairo, you don't have to go far either north or south to encounter squalid villages without sewers, running water, health facilities or any other public services. Increasing numbers of young men living in such conditions, and without vocational skills, decent education or job prospects, are easy prey for radical movements.

Mahmoud Abouhalima, the alleged ringleader of the gang that planted the powerful bomb in New York City's World Trade Center last February, grew up in just such circumstances in the Nile Delta town of Kafr al-Dawar. He came to hate the regime ruling a country that offered his generation little hope. He was further radicalized by government roundups of his friends, including members of the Islamic Group.

The rank corruption of high government officials also builds resentments.

"The average Egyptian can live with paying off a cop or a bureaucrat, who, like himself, doesn't have enough money," the official said. "But they hate to feel—rightly or wrongly—that the rich are getting still more money, intended for them, from corruption. That perception must be changed."

Mubarak is still the only person in a position to change it.