India Goes to Polls Again

By M.M. Ali

Even if the turnout is very low in the elections underway in India, the number of voters will be way above the combined populations of the United States and Canada.

The Indians, whose numbers have almost reached one billion, have an electorate close to 400 million people. This year’s democratic exercise, therefore, is no easy task for the Election Commission. Nor is it any solace to the already drained Indian treasury, especially since the country again is holding national elections less than two years since the previous one. The absence of a clear majority for any single political party in the parliament (Lokh Sabha) has led to the quick fall of successive coalition governments. Nor are there indications that any party is likely to gain enough seats to be able to form anything but another shaky governing coalition after the current vote.

The era in which the Indian National Congress party, under the leaders of the Nehru dynasty, could count on a large majority in the parliament is over. The ’90s have seen both an eroding of the Congress Party and the emergence of the right-wing Hindu Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Since neither the Congress nor the BJP have been able to rule without building a coalition based upon regional parties and individual (non-BJP and non-Congress) politicians, these outside elements have gained an inordinate degree of importance. In fact it is they who have determined the life span of the coalition governments that Congress and BJP have been able to put together in the last few years.

This regional factor appears to be the phenomenon that will determine the final outcome of the present elections if no party wins a clear majority. Jayalalitha, the colorful and individualistic AIDMK leader from the state of Tamilnadu who controlled 18 seats in the last Lokh Sabha and was part of the BJP government of Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee, was instrumental in the fall of his government that created the need for these fresh elections. Such national leverage by small regional groups has led to several leaders running for elections under their own party banners and shunning the BJP or the Congress. They hope to cash in on their winning numbers to drive a hard bargain with the party or parties that come to seek their support in forming a coalition government at the Center. The tactics may very well pay off in the face of a hung parliament, as has happened three times before.

Role of Regional Politics

To form a government any party requires the support of at least 272 of the 543 Lokh Sabha members. The rough geographical breakdown of seats is: North-151, South-132, East-142, and West-118. Leaders enjoying regional support who have avoided the BJP and the Congress are to be watched. They are the ones who will play a significant role in the formation of the next government. Among those who have been flexing their political muscle are: Jyoti Basu and Harkishen Singh Surjeet from the Communist Party of India (CPI), who control West Bengal, parts of Behar and Kerala; Mulayam Singh Yadav from the Samajwadi Party, who enjoys considerable political support in Uttar Pradesh and was largely responsible for thwarting Congress efforts to form a government when BJP fell the last time; and Kansiram and Mayawati of the Bahujan Samaj Party, also from U.P., who counterbalanced Mulayam Singh and played their own cards in the formation of coalitions at the center.

Laloo Prasad Yadav of RJD, a former chief minister of Behar who commands unflinching support from the Muslims and lower caste Dalits and has had his own share of problems, will be in a position to dangle carrots before the Congress, and at the same time flirt with other anti-BJP forces. He can still win votes for whoever wants his support. Elsewhere, Sharad Pawar from Maharashtra, who recently broke away from Congress and formed his own National Congress Party, commands support in and around his home ground, Mumbai (Bombay), and is planning to become a kingmaker, if not king, himself.

As noted above, Jayalalitha of the AIDMK is once again campaigning and knows she can be a major player in the formation of a coalition government in Delhi. Then there is Chandra Babu Naidu of Telegu Desham Party of Andhra Pradesh, who helped Vajpayee in the past and may once again throw his weight to one side or the other at the last minute and make a difference. And there are few additional lesser or regional players who can suddenly attain political importance, depending on the final electoral count, and who are not members of the BJP or the Congress.

BJP vs. Congress

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), led by Atal Behari Vajpayee, emerged as the single largest party in the ’90s after the decline of the Congress party. However, its pariwar (cohorts) are right-wing Hindu extremists like the Vishwa Hindu Parishad, the Rashtriya Sewak Sang and the militant Shiv Sena that have caused more secular-minded voters to reconsider supporting the BJP.

Nevertheless, establishment of Hindutva (land of the Hindus) remains the plank of the BJP, and the party has made some recent political gains. Its prestige was boosted after the testing of nuclear devices last year, and again this year after the Kargil episode in Kashmir, when Indian troops clashed with Pakistan-backed Kashmiri intruders, not only supplied but apparently reinforced by the Pakistani army, as reported.

BJP capitalized on the support it received on the issue from the Western powers. It went on a media blitz and publicly charged Pakistan with responsibility for fomenting trouble inside Indian territory. On Aug. 1 it shot down an unarmed Pakistani military aircraft which it charged had violated its borders, and although most of the wreckage fell inside Pakistan, India has refused to pay any compensation for it.

These events and a steady economy have helped Vajpayee look better to Indian voters today than did his BJP party a few months ago. Still, the BJP is not out of the woods altogether.

The Congress party, under the leadership of Sonia Gandhi, the Italian-born widow of assassinated Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi, has managed to keep its ranks together ever since Sharad Pawar left the party. However, political rivals keep harping on her Italian heritage and Italian-accented Hindi. To counteract this she has been taking her daughter, Priyanka, and more recently her son, Rahul, as well, with her in all her public appearances. She has also been talking to powerful BJP dissidents and opponents outside the Congress party in a bid to form a coalition government after elections, should that become necessary. Sonia has filed for election to the Lokh Sabha from Bellary in Karnataka, a safe Congress constituency. However, Sushma Sawaraj, an eloquent former spokesperson for BJP, has followed Sonia to Bellary, and filed to run against her. Sushma speaks Kanarda, the local language, and is a swadeshi (daughter of the soil) unlike Sonia, who is a vedeshi (foreign born).

This definitely will be the most closely watched contest in an election in which Congress may once again fail to get the majority in the Lokh Sabha, but will certainly emerge as one of the two major parliamentary parties, alongside BJP.

Sonia Gandhi has the stamp of Gandhi lineage, but no governing experience. The Congress party elected her as its president as a compromise candidate and to help avert a breakup of the party. That she would become the prime minister was not in the original cards.

Atal Behari Vajpayee, on the other hand, has experience but lacks the charisma to draw in the non-religious groups—the large segment of the lower castes, the Muslims and the secularist elements. Although BJP remains the party of the Hindu rank and file, religious extremist elements have always damaged BJP political fortunes by frightening off potential supporters.

Whether Vajpayee can overcome this political shortcoming is partly what the current elections are all about. Unfortunately, they may not produce conclusive answers. India may end up with another unstable government. This has international implications in the present circumstances where either of two nuclear-armed but politically unstable governments in Pakistan and India, deeply divided over the half-century-old Kashmir dispute, might be tempted to seek domestic support by playing the jingoist card. It’s a situation made for far-sighted, disinterested U.S. diplomacy, but at a time when that quality appears to be virtually invisible in Washington, DC.

Prof. M.M. Ali is a consultant and a fellow with the Center for Planning and Public Policy based in the Washington, DC area.