Washington Report on Middle East Affairs, October/November 1998, pages 27, 52

Election 1998

All Six Arab-American Incumbents Favored; All Three Challengers Underdogs

By Shirl McArthur

With the mid-term congressional elections less than two months away, the six Arab-American incumbents (four Democrats and two Republicans) remain favored to return to Washington, and the three remaining Arab-American challengers (two Democrats and one Republican) appear to be running behind in their races. The September issue of the Washington Report included profiles of all the candidates. Since that was written, one of the Arab-American challengers, Republican Sam Zakhem, has lost his party’s primary election. Although Zakhem is considered a conservative Republican, his prospects were dimmed when two leading Colorado conservatives threw their support to eventual winner Tom Tancredo, another conservative, just prior to the election.

According to soundings taken by the Capitol Hill publication Roll Call, three of the Arab American incumbents are considered “safe:” Pat Danner (D-MO), Ray LaHood (R-IL), and Nick Rahall (D-WV). Rahall and LaHood are both unopposed in November, and Danner has won by increasing margins since her first election to the House in 1992. (However this does not stop her from being nervous about last-minute “surprises.”)

The other three incumbents, Democrats John Baldacci in Maine and Chris John in Louisiana, and Republican John Sununu in New Hampshire, are all considered by Roll Call to be “likely” winners.

The most interesting race of the six appears to be in New Hampshire’s 1st district, where the leading Democratic challenger to first-term Republican John Sununu was discovered to have assaulted a state police officer 11 years ago. She offered to withdraw, but the state Ballot Law Commission ruled that the only way she could remove her name from the ballot would be to move from the state. She moved from the state, and the commission allowed the Democratic Party to replace her name with that of longtime Democratic stalwart Peter Flood. Needless to say, this leaves the Democratic Party in disarray, and increases the chances that Sununu, who was already favored, will win re-election. Sununu’s campaign manager says that the sudden switch of opponents does not affect their campaign, since Sununu is running for re-election based on his record, and this would be true regardless of whom the Democrats chose to put up to oppose him.

Of the challengers, Democrat Eileen Ansari, who is not Arab-American but who is married to a Pakistani-American Muslim, reports that polling shows she is making “substantial inroads” in California’s 41st district. Nevertheless, as of late August, Roll Call still considered her opponent the “likely” winner. An independent-minded, outspoken moderate who has been mayor of the city of Diamond Bay and is a two-term city council member, Ansari is running a bare-bones campaign based heavily on door-to-door canvassing by volunteers backed up by a professional staff. Her opponent is a wealthy developer who has a tremendous financial advantage over Ansari. While she allowed for this in recruiting volunteers, she obviously would benefit from enhanced donations to help her meet him on more equal terms in a district in transition with a growing Latino population and a 16 percent undecided vote that could throw the election either way.

Touma and Maloof

The other two challengers, Democrat Phil Maloof in New Mexico’s first district and Republican Leslie Touma in Michigan’s 12th district, are both in close races where Roll Call sees the incumbents holding slight leads.

Touma, with extensive experience in public relations, Michigan politics and in federal positions in Washington, Geneva and Brussels, seems to have an excellent chance of joining the ranks of Arab-American incumbents, although the current incumbent, Sander Levin, has almost a 2-to-1 advantage in campaign contributions. Although Roll Call quoted one analyst as saying that Levin would have to make mistakes and Touma would have to raise over $1 million for her to beat him, Touma has an impressive fund-raising record. As of early September, her campaign chest stood at $535,000, compared with more than $750,000 for Levin.

Furthermore, Levin might be hurt by the growing discord in Michigan’s Democratic Party. The Democratic nominee for governor, Geoffrey Fieger, is a controversial attorney best known for defending Dr. Jack Kevorkian. He has made several outrageous statements, including calling Jesus Christ “just some goofball who got nailed to the cross.”

Increasingly, analysts are saying that a disastrous Fieger candidacy could bring down Democratic congressional candidates across the state. Touma has issued a press release challenging Levin to speak out about Fieger, saying “if Levin stands with Geoffrey Fieger, does that mean he agrees with his caustic and divisive statements? Does he agree with his stances on the issues?”

The national Republican Congressional Committee has targeted this seat as one to pick up from the Democrats. This means financial help for Touma from the national committee, plus help from high-profile Republican leaders. House Majority Leader Dick Armey (R-TX) was in Michigan campaigning for Touma in mid-September.

In New Mexico, Democrat Maloof lost the hotly contested June by-election to Heather Wilson by a 45 percent to 39 percent vote, with Green Party candidate Robert Anderson taking 16 percent.

Although Wilson’s incumbency now gives her an advantage in November’s election, the race still is considered very close, because the Democrats have a slight edge in voter registration and voter turnout should be higher in November than in the special election. A main unknown is whether or not Anderson will hold on to the people who voted for him in the previous election, or whether enough of them will switch to Maloof to overcome Wilson’s lead.

Maloof’s main problem is that he has been somewhat divisive, and has alienated New Mexico’s Democratic Party chairman, who said that about half of Anderson’s votes came from Democrats who were disenchanted by Maloof.