Yemen Again On Path to Democracy, Economic Growth

by Katherine M. Metres

“Something wonderful has happened in Yemen,” gushed The New York Times in May 1993. Citing Yemen as a model of Middle Eastern democratic transition, the editorial lauded the recently unified republic’s success in holding free parliamentary elections with universal suffrage.

The praise seemed warranted at the time, but the following year Yemen’s progress (and President Ali Abdullah Saleh’s leadership) dissolved into a bloody civil war. The Times editorialists confided in a Yemeni colleague that they felt very foolish to have prejudged the transition to democracy.

Today, in the run up to parliamentary elections scheduled for next April, Yemen’s political outlook lies between these extremes: While Yemen’s democratic transition now appears far from ideal, the unified republic has made moderate progress toward pluralism and free-market reform.

The Republic of Yemen, located to the southwest of Saudi Arabia, was formed in 1990 from the consensual merger of the (North) Yemen Arab Republic and the (South) People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen. Nationalists in both states had long called for reunification, but Yemen had been continuously divided since the 17th century. The southern Marxist-Leninist government petitioned for unity when the loss of Soviet and East German aid left it economically unviable.

As the weaker partner, former South Yemen was forced to accept the subordination of its laws, as well as the leadership of the northern President Ali Abdullah Saleh. Not surprisingly, some called for a return to separate states. The resulting secession crisis led to a war in May 1994 which journalists on the scene attest was initiated by the northern authorities. By July, Sana’a had succeeded in crushing southern resistance to northern hegemony. Saleh’s party, the General People’s Congress (GPC), formed a coalition government with the moderate Islamist Yemeni Congregation for Reform (Islah) as a junior partner.

Like fellow Arab states Egypt, Jordan and Kuwait, Yemen has a freely elected parliament but an autocratic executive that limits the parliament’s effectiveness. In 1978 Lt. Gen. Saleh, a poorly educated man of humble tribal origins, came to power with the support of the army, the tribes, Saudi Arabia, and the United States. His administration began on a sour note as a result of his alleged involvement in the assassination of his predecessor, the popular President Ibrahim Muhammed al-Hamdi.

Though at first Saleh commanded little popular support, in time his modest efforts to broaden political participation, unify the nation, establish the rule of law, and develop the economy won him the respect or at least acceptance of his countrymen.

In 1990, Yemen proclaimed a new constitution, calling for a democratically elected president who would serve a maximum of two terms. Saleh interprets this clause to allow him to finish his rubber-stamped term of six years before putting himself up for election. If the people elect Saleh twice, he will have been president for 31 years.

As a result of such backsliding, the United States no longer cites Yemen as the model of emerging Arab democracy. Now, Yemen appears on the U.S. political horizon only when its policies run counter to America’s priority in the Gulf: the protection of friendly oil-rich regimes.

Yemen’s anti-coalition position in the Gulf war, however, seriously antagonized U.S. policymakers and led to the immediate suspension of its aid program. Since then, relations have thawed considerably with the rapprochement between Yemen and Saudi Arabia, symbolized by the recent exchange of high-ranking officials and the completion of a border security agreement. This year’s withdrawal of the USAID mission in Yemen is characterized by U.S. officials as a purely budgetary decision.

The Washington Report asked several prominent Yemenis in August to assess the transition to democracy. Their responses ranged from gratitude for Yemen’s atmosphere of freedom and rule of law to bitter allegations of corruption and anti-democratic maneuvers. On the “glass half-empty” side, Dr. Mohammad A. al-Mutawakil, political science professor and vice president of the Yemeni Organization for Defense of Human Rights and Democratic Freedoms, took the time before a meeting between opposition figures and Islah to describe the concerns that motivate these unusual discussions between Left and Right.

The Islah-opposition dialogue, Dr. Mutawakil explained, aims to guarantee clean elections by challenging how the General Peoples’ Congress manages the elections process. Although Islah is part of the ruling coalition, as a junior partner it has had little influence in the operations of the Supreme Elections Committee, which oversees election procedures.

According to Yemeni law, a citizen may register to vote in his or her hometown, workplace, or army base. The GPC has manipulated this policy to register its troops in locales where the ruling party is weak. For example, the former South Yemen province of Hadramawt, which would be expected to vote for socialist or independent candidates, contains as many soldiers as the indigenous population. On election day, the troops’ votes, rather than being counted toward the results in their home provinces, will have the final say on who will represent that area. Worse, the GPC allegedly has asked many soldiers to register (illegally) and vote in more than one place. Many southerners view this as occupation via the ballot box.

Supreme Court Justice Dr. Naguib al-Shameiry is confident that the courts can remedy all complaints of voter registration irregularities. He pointed out that there were soldiers registered in several places in 1993 also, and these errors were corrected before the elections. Falling firmly into the “glass half-full” category, Dr. Shameiry commented, “The democratic transition is going on smoothly. One can talk openly now more than before.” Asserting that the executive does not interfere in his work, Dr. Shameiry cited a number of cases in which the court ruled against a minister or even the president.

He also observed the change that has occurred in Yemen’s socio-political culture. Yemen is an underdeveloped, mostly rural country with a traditional population. In personal legal disputes, complainants usually seek the mediation of a tribal elder (sheikh) or, in the case of marital disputes, a male relative. Although many disputes are thus resolved peacefully, others result in bloodshed between the heavily armed tribes.

Dr. Shameiry noted, “It’s good that people now resort to the court. The courts are playing an increasing role in this [conflict resolution] process. This was not the case before. Now even tribes go to court.”

However, Yemeni judges of the “glass half-empty” opinion raised issues of concern at the Second General Conference of the Judicial Forum in August. Head of the Dhamar Primary Court Mohsen Yahia al-Ghashm stated, “The whole environment in which we work is authoritarian. In other words, one cannot really achieve full independence. Therefore, what we are talking about is relative” (Yemen Times, July 26).

Complaining of corrupt judges who accept bribes or rule according to social connections or political pressures, the judges called for (1) politicians to stay out of legal proceedings, (2) improved compensation and security that would help judges resist offers of bribery or threats to their person, and (3) better compliance of security forces and police in the implementation of sentences.

Prosecutor Raja A. Obaid lauded the fact that the former South Yemen appointed women as judges. She remarked, however, that “Our northern colleagues frown at this.” In fact, with the Islamist party in control of the Ministry of Justice, the women judges in the South faced termination last year. President Saleh and male colleagues weighed in on their behalf and the women were reappointedbut with the compromise stipulation that they may not rule on murder cases. Some Islamists maintain that women are too emotional to think objectively about such crimes.

As long as such attitudes about women persist, only elite women will have the opportunity to work outside the home, depriving the economy of half the potential work force. Further, Yemen does not possess the oil riches of its Gulf neighbors.

Yet the U.S.-based Hunt Oil company gave Yemen’s economic future a boost in 1984 when it found oil in commercial quantities near the ancient city of Marib. Today oil is the major source of Yemen’s export earnings. Still, unless more oil is discovered it is difficult to envision Yemen’s natural resources alone supporting its population, which is growing at the astounding rate of 3 percent a year. Already Yemen has an estimated population of 16 million.

In addition, Yemen allegedly suffers from corruption that enriches government officials while the people remain impoverished. The economy is also hampered by a huge civil service (read: jobs program) and a state-oriented structure.

Recognizing this, in October 1994 the government resolved to implement reforms that would transform Yemen’s economy to a free market. Today Yemen has completed the first stage of a World Bank/IMF economic reform program.

According to World Bank resident representative Dr. Osman Ahmed, the reforms are beginning to bear fruit: “Inflation has been contained, the dollar exchange rate of the riyal fairly stabilized, and an overall environment conducive to business is now in place” (Yemen Times, July 28). Clearly, an important component of a business-friendly environment is the rule of law. Investors must have confidence that the judiciary is able to resolve commercial disputes fairly. This July a conference sponsored by the Yemeni Institute for the Development of Democracy concluded that democracy is the “basis for any meaningful economic transformation” (Yemen Times, August 5).

Not only democracy but information and infrastructure are key to economic development. In August, Yemen became linked to the Internet, a crucial source of international information sharing. Furthermore, in cooperation with the government, the Yemen Company for Investment and Development laid the cornerstone for the Aden free-trade zone, scheduled to begin operations in April 1999. The former capital of South Yemen, Aden, is today the republic’s commercial capital. Modernization of Aden’s port, communication and transportation facilities will help Yemen attract desperately needed international investment.

While Yemen is clearly not on the verge of a rapid economic takeoff or substantial political transformation, the future holds hope of modest development. With good governance, Yemen finally can become the success story that The New York Times once so boldly, and prematurely, proclaimed it.