Mideast Policymakers Conference Examines Peace Process, Gulf Security

By Shawn L. Twing

The Fourth Annual U.S. Mideast Policymakers Conference, held at the Virginia Military Institute in Lexington, Virginia on Sept. 17-18, brought together influential members of America's military, intelligence, foreign policy and academic communities to discuss two topics at the top of everyone's Middle East agenda: security and the peace process. This year's event, primarily sponsored by the National Council on U.S.-Arab Relations and hosted by the George C. Marshall Institute, was an intense two-day discussion of current U.S.-Middle East relations by some of America's most capable sources.

"Five Pillars of Peace"

Delivering the keynote address was Gen. J.H. Binford Peay III, commander-in-chief of the United States Central Command (CENTCOM), which is charged with protecting U.S. interests in 19 countries in the Middle East and Africa: Egypt, Sudan, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Djibouti, Yemen, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan. General Peay listed as the "five pillars of peace" in the central region: U.S. ability to project military power in the region; a strong forward presence, including naval and air components and pre-positioned equipment to support incoming American troops; joint military exercises with U.S. allies in the region; security assistance to America's allies; and a U.S. willingness to fight, if necessary, to protect its regional partners.

A five-person panel of experts chaired by Rear Admiral John M. Luecke, the director of plans and policy for the U.S. Central Command, discussed security issues in and around the oil-producing countries of the Arabian peninsula. Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Near East Affairs James A. Placke described the "oil paradox" confronting those countries, which have plentiful reserves and the lowest production costs in the world, but face continued stagnation of oil prices. Placke, who currently is vice president of Cambridge Energy Research Associates, said that production by non-OPEC members has led to the decline in real revenue for the oil-exporting countries of the Gulf.

Lt. Gen. John Jumper, U.S. Air Force commander in the Central region, stressed the need for the U.S. and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates) to work together to deter aggression, particularly in light of Iraqi President Saddam Hussain's repeated recent attempts to test their resolve. General Jumper also emphasized the difficulty created when security assistance is micro-managed for political reasons. Such inhibitions have resulted in sales to American allies of major U.S. weapons systems, but without the crucial battle management systems that should accompany them, thus reducing the utility of the weapons systems.

Discussing the future of Iraq in several different scenarios with and without Saddam Hussain as president, Dr. Phebe Marr, senior research professor at the Institute for National Strategic Studies, warned about the dangers inherent in a destabilized and fragmented Iraq that could result from violent attempts to overthrow the Iraqi leader. She said the Iraqi strongman's continued political survival results from excellent personal security, fear of the alternatives to Saddam, and the strength of his presence within the power structures in Iraq.

Mutual Misperceptions

Concluding the panel on Gulf security was Dr. Shaul Bakhash, the Clarence J. Robinson professor of history at George Mason University and a leading U.S. authority on Iran. Noting that it is difficult to cite a time since the hostage crisis when relations between the United States and Iran have been so bad, he focused on mutual misperceptions that have prevented improved relations. Criticizing current U.S. methods to facilitate change in Iran, Dr. Bakhash advised against the "all stick and no carrot" approach now being taken by the United States and urged the U.S. to consider Iran's legitimate national security concerns when formulating U.S. policy in the Gulf region.

Unique to the 4th annual policy conference was the discussion period that followed the panel presentations. The audience was broken down into small groups which then met with one of the panel speakers and an assisting moderator in an informal round-table discussion of the speaker's respective topics. This provided an opportunity for in-depth questions and constructive debate between members of the audience and individual presenters. Following the discussion sessions, everyone returned to the plenary sessions to summarize the general findings of the smaller sub-groups.

Many Arabs in the United States and elsewhere feel betrayed by the U.S. government's clear tilt toward Israel in the peace negotiations.

The second half of the conference focused on the Israeli-Palestinian peace process and the role of the United States in the negotiations. Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Near East and South Asia Les Janka chaired the peace process session. Janka, a former special assistant to Presidents Nixon, Ford and Reagan, encouraged the participants to take a realistic look at the peace process during the subsequent discussion period and not to be tempted to avoid the difficult but necessary issues involved in formulating a true, lasting peace.

Dr. William Quandt, a former director for Near East Affairs at the National Security Council and currently the Harry Flood Byrd professor of international relations at the University of Virginia, opened the discussion with first-hand insights entitled "Perspectives of a Former Participant." With reference to the current round of negotiations under the Oslo Accord, he noted that "beneath the surface not all is well."

Quandt, a prolific author on the Arab-Israeli peace process who was present at the Camp David meetings that gave birth to the Israeli-Egpytian agreement, said the U.S. should take a proactive role in the process, including pressuring the Israelis to make real concessions. He closed the presentation with the observation that "we haven't lost the chance for peace, but time is running out."

Continuing with the discussion of the American role in the process was former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Near East Affairs William Kirby, who currently is the executive director of the Initiative for Peace and Cooperation in the Middle East. Kirby encouraged the U.S. government to utilize non-governmental organizations (NGOs) in its relations with Middle Eastern countries, maintaining that the "soft" activities they create (e.g., cross-border communication between potentially hostile neighbors) is a valuable contribution to peace. He also warned U.S. leaders about the dangers inherent in advocating the agenda of one side in the issue over the other, saying that the United States should be constant in its approach to the peace process.

The last two panel discussants were executive director Khalil Jahshan of the National Association of Arab Americans, and Yo'av Karny, a correspondent for Globes publications in Tel Aviv and a contributor to Israel TV Channel One. Karny emphasized two key developments in Israel related to the peace process: the feeling of irreversibility on the part of the Israeli populace, combined with a sense of reluctance to follow through. He added that the greatest change wrought in Israel to date by the peace process has been that Israelis now distinguish moderates from extremists in the Palestinian camp.

Jahshan, discussing Arab perspectives of the peace process, offered a four-part spectrum of opinion ranging from optimists, who see the negotiations as working toward effective solutions, to the rejectionists who distrust U.S. leadership and are ideologically opposed to settlement with Israel. He noted that many Arabs in the United States and elsewhere feel betrayed by the U.S. government's clear tilt toward Israel in the peace negotiations.

Several of the speakers at the conference referred to the wise words of the late Gen. George C. Marshall, a former U.S. secretary of state, who said, "avoid trivia." During this overwhelmingly successful conference, the presenters, moderators and participants did just that.

Shawn L. Twing is the news editor of the Washington Report on Middle East Affairs .