Washington Report, October 4, 1982, Page 4

Syria: In From The Cold?

As the next phase in the Lebanon drama unfolds, one of the major roles is being played by a country which has gradually but doggedly been changing its approach to the outside world.

The country is Syria—and its new approach is producing a degree of cautious optimism in Washington that a deal for an early Syrian and Israeli troop withdrawal can be made, providing Israel is ready to go along too.

Less than a year ago, Syria was still the odd man-out in the Arab Middle East, pushing a foreign policy that was in sharp conflict with its Arab neighbors. Alone, it was giving vigorous support to non-Arab Iran in its war with Iraq. It broke up an Arab summit conference in Fez, Morocco, last November, when it refused to back a Saudi peace plan that gave implicit recognition to Israel. It had recently signed a friendship and cooperation treaty with the Soviet Union, at a time when even "radical" Iraq was loosening its Soviet links.

During the past year, all of these Syrian policies have gone through a metamorphosis, to one degree or another. Syria's enthusiasm for Iran has waned, leading it to warn the Iranians last spring not to push into Iraq, and causing it to ban the showing on Syrian television screens of the push which eventually took place. In Fez, in early September, it not only agreed to attend the continuation of the summit conference which it broke up last year, but this time joined in supporting a new Arab "peace plan." And its confidence in the Soviet Union's importance as a card to be played in the Arab-Israeli confrontation was severely shaken by the ease with which Israel destroyed Syria's Soviet equipment in Lebanon, and by the Soviet's weak political response to the invasion.

Some U.S. officials see all this as part of a "new realism "—probably motivated in part by the regime's internal difficulties and by Saudi financial encouragement—which will have a favorable impact on the negotiations for troop withdrawals from Lebanon. In their view, the Syrians are now anxious to leave the Lebanese quagmire—and will be able to use the simultaneous withdrawal of Israeli troops as a face-saving way to do so.

Many other analysts are still doubtful. They believe Syria would like to keep its troops in Lebanon's Bekaa Valley as a security buffer against Israel. To do this Syria would almost certainly have to accept a permanent, de facto Israeli presence in South Lebanon—a trade-off which the Israelis might also find acceptable. If this scenario develops, the loser will once again be Lebanon.