Palestinians Support Peace Agreement but Distrust of Israeli Intentions Grows

By Ella Bancroft

A clear majority of 56 percent of West Bank and Gaza Palestinians still support the proposed Palestinian-Israeli agreement on West Bank redeployment by the Israeli army and transfer of authority to the Palestinian National Authority, but an overwhelming 81 percent of Palestinians no longer trust Israeli intentions, according to a poll conducted by the Center for Palestine Research and Studies in the West Bank town of Nablus. One in a regular series of polls conducted by the Center, with financial and methodological assistance from the International Republican Institute of Washington, DC, the current figures were compiled from 1,109 interviews (719 from the West Bank and 390 from Gaza) with Palestinians 18 or over from July 6 to 9.

In the days preceding the poll the main points of a possible agreement had been published in the local press, and expectations were running high that the agreement would be signed before the end of July. The poll nevertheless showed sharply increasing distrust of Israeli intentions, from 72 percent eight months ago to the present 81 percent, and a decrease in support for PNA President Yasser Arafat from 64 percent in May to 52 percent in July. Additional results from the poll:

While 56 percent of respondents supported the proposed agreement and transfer of authority, 29 percent opposed it.

Some 44 percent were looking forward to the transfer of authority to the PNA, while 51 percent said they were "neutral" or had some reservations.

Only 43.5 percent believed that an Israeli redeployment in the West Bank would mean that the establishment of a Palestinian State is near; 39 percent did not share that view.

A minority 31 percent evaluated positively the PNA's management of the negotiations with the Israelis, 19 percent said PNA management was fair and 26 percent said it was weak.

Evaluations of PNA handling of the release of prisoners were similar, with 36 percent saying it was good, 19 percent saying it was fair, and 38 percent saying it was weak.

Sixty-four percent of respondents were critical of appointments to Palestinian institutions, saying they were based on wasta (personal and family connections).

Fifty-one percent of respondents supported a proportional representation system for Palestinian parliamentary elections and 32 percent supported a majority (winner- take-all within each district) system.

Some 68 percent of Palestinians said they would take part in elections if they occur.

Support for Yasser Arafat as president of the PNA was at 49.3 percent, compared to Sheikh Ahmad Yassin (imprisoned Hamas leader) at 13.4 percent, independent Gaza leader Dr. Haider Abdel Shafi at 7.6 percent, Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine leader Dr. George Habash at 3.9 percent. Support for others totaled 25.7 percent. (Figures of support for Arafat in the same organization's previous polls ranged from a low of 44.2 percent in November 1994 to a high of 56.5 percent in March 1995.)

Support for Arafat's mainstream Fatah party dropped from 49.2 percent in May to 43.6 percent in July. While the popularity of the group had not changed in the West Bank, it had plummeted 13 points in Gaza, dragging down the overall average.

In general, the results of the latest poll show that support for Yasser Arafat leads that for all rivals by a significant margin. As distrust of the Israelis increases and hope for an agreement and a Palestinian state declines, however, support for Arafat and his party inevitably is eroding.

Dole's Jerusalem Pander Unpopular

If Sen. Bob Dole's support for legislation to force completion of a move of the American Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem by the end of 1999 had been aimed at influencing the American public to favor his presidential candidacy, it would have to be written off as a dismal failure. In fact, however, it was aimed at one-issue Jewish donors and voters, primarily in New York and California, two states whose delegations he hopes to capture in his campaign for the Republican presidential nomination.

According to a poll commissioned by the Arab American Institute and conducted by the John Zogby Group of New York, 46 percent of respondents favored the position of the Clinton administration that "the status of the city should be negotiated between the Israelis and the Palestinians," while only 20 percent favored the Dole position.

The AAI poll of 900 registered voters was conducted from July 17 to 20, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percent. It showed 29.8 percent of respondents supported a Jerusalem divided between Palestinians and Israelis, 18 percent thought it should be entirely Israeli, 6.5 percent said it should be neither (the original 1947 U.N. partition plan called for an internationalized Jerusalem), and 45 percent were not sure or had no opinion.

Regarding basic public sympathies, 22.7 percent were more sympathetic to the Israelis, 24 percent indicated sympathy with both parties, 7.2 percent were more sympathetic to the Palestinians, and 30 percent were not sure with whom they sympathized.

Israelis Now Favor Rabin

A comprehensive poll conducted in late June by Israeli pollster Mina Tsemach showed that in a head-to-head contest for prime minister, incumbent Labor Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin would edge Likud leader Benyamin Netanyahu 39 to 38 percent. The numbers mark a remarkable recovery of some 10 points for Rabin from earlier in the year when Palestinian terrorist actions were frequent.

The poll indicated, however, that because of the proliferation of right-wing parties and the fracturing of Likud, the number of Knesset seats garnered in Israel's 1996 elections by right-wing and religious parties very likely will outnumber those going to Labor and the tiny left-wing parties. If so, although Labor may receive the largest number of votes, to form a government Rabin might have to look to the right for a major coalition ally—perhaps Likud defector David Levy, whose breakaway following, consisting largely of blue-collar Sephardic Jews, is expected to include many of the voters who previously have supported Likud.

Bosnia Polls Show Shifting Opinion

A Time-CNN poll in July found 50 percent of Americans opposed lifting the U.N. embargo on arms to former Yugoslavia, and 36 percent supported ending the embargo. That survey found 59 percent of respondents believed the U.S. had done enough in Bosnia, and 31 percent felt the U.S. should do more.

A subsequent poll, released July 25 by the American Task Force for Bosnia, found a plurality of 39 percent of respondents favored lifting the embargo, with 22 percent opposed.

Both polls were completed before the congressional votes to lift the embargo, and their veto by President Bill Clinton, and before the revelations of mass murders of Muslims by Serbs in the U.N. "safe area" of Srebrenica and the stunning victory by the Croatian army against breakaway Serbs in the Krajina area, adjoining western Bosnia.

Ella Bancroft covers U.S. and Canadian affairs for overseas newspapers.