Amendments, Abolitions, Autonomy

By James M. Dorsey

Turkey has liberalized its military-era constitution, easing the way for its customs union with the European Union. Nonetheless, to be sealed finally, the deal may still require improvement in Ankara's human rights record.

Moreover, Prime Minister Tansu Ciller's unexpected victory in the Turkish parliament in getting the constitution amended has ironically fueled speculation that Turkey may go to the polls prior to the scheduled election in the fall of 1996. Although Ciller denies that she is contemplating an early election, analysts say two scenarios are realistic:

One is organization of by-elections to be held no later than Oct. 20 for 22 vacant parliament seats. Analysts caution, however, that such by-elections may be difficult to organize if parliament only returns from recess on Oct. 1. By-elections can't be held after Oct. 20 because the constitution bans such polling within one year of general elections.

Under the alternative scenario, Ciller could call for a surprise general election in November to exploit both positive economic indicators and her possible success in salvaging the customs union.

Despite the danger that election politics would wreak havoc on public finances, Ciller is likely to assure the international financial community that she will emerge from general elections stronger than ever, and therefore be able to press ahead more effectively with privatization and structural reform of the economy.

Which way Ciller decides to go is likely to be influenced by whether the constitutional amendments are sufficient to persuade the European Parliament that Turkey is well on its way to adopting the standards of the European Convention on Human Rights. The amendments expanding political participation and lifting some restrictions on unions are part of a democratization program Prime Minister Ciller unveiled over one year ago.

That program was in response to a threat by the European Parliament to reject the customs union due to take effect on Jan. 1 if Turkey has not democratized by that time. For her part, Ciller again is warning Europe that Islamic fundamentalists will gain influence in Turkey if the EU keeps postponing the customs union.

"Turkey's integration into the West will make the values of modern civilization and their development irreversible," Ciller says. "But Europe must not isolate us, or else the danger arises that ideologues who exploit the Turkish people's religious sentiment will win ground. The impairment or non-realization of the customs union would serve the interests of religious fundamentalists. The European Parliament should consider this."

Ciller-backed amendments to the Turkish constitution are, nonetheless, but one step in the direction of the European Parliament's demands for democratization. Turkey has yet to move on a host of other issues, including the lifting of restrictions on freedom of expression.

Abolishing Article 8

With the Turkish parliament going into recess, the assembly will only discuss the crucial issue of abolishing Article 8 of the anti-terrorism law when it returns on Oct. 1, according to Murat Ersavci, Mrs. Ciller's spokesman. Article 8 has been invoked against people who argue for broader Kurdish political and cultural rights.

Scores of writers and others are in jail for publishing books about modern Kurdish history, criticizing alleged human rights abuses in the mainly Kurdish southeast or expressing Kurdish nationalist sentiments.

Hard-liners in the parliament—and within Ciller's own True Path Party (DYP)—
reject changing Article 8, arguing it would only encourage the 11-year Kurdish guerrilla war for independence or autonomy in southeast Turkey.

As a result, European parliamentarians could refuse to endorse the customs union, arguing that Turkey has yet to meet fully their demands for democratization, which also include an end to torture in police interrogations and recognition of Kurdish rights. Western diplomats argue that signs that Turkey is willing to relax restraints on freedom of expression or release jailed Kurdish members of parliament could satisfy the rights-conscious European Parliament and remove potential obstacles.

A debate on whether the constitutional amendments can be applied retroactively could offer the government and parliament a formula under which to release Kurdish members of parliament jailed on charges of abetting terrorism. Of the seven Kurdish deputies in prison, one who had been released previously was jailed in July under Article 8 for contempt of court, just as parliament moved to pass the constitutional amendments.

The Turkish parliament's adoption of the constitutional amendments came after weeks of fierce in-fighting in which Mrs. Ciller's secular opponents from both the opposition and from within her own DYP joined forces with the Islamist Refah Party.

"Non-realization of the customs union would serve the interests of religious fundamentalists."

Concerned that she would not be able to muster sufficient support for the changes, Mrs. Ciller suspended the debate in parliament during the second round in July. Her spokesman, Mr. Ersavci, and political analysts said the fear that rejection of the amendments would ultimately strengthen the pro-Islamic forces and result in early elections prompted many deputies finally to vote in favor of the amendments.

"The deputies were under pressure from the public, which wants closer ties to Europe," Mr. Ersavci said.

The amendments expand political participation by lowering the voting age to 18 from 20 and allowing associations and unions to get involved in political activities.

The amendments also removed from the constitution a paragraph praising the 1980 military takeover, raised the number of parliamentary seats from 450 to 550, and permitted deputies to switch parties.

Although the amendments gave civil servants the right to negotiate collectively, they cannot strike. Union leaders therefore complain that the changes do not sufficiently broaden union rights to bring Turkey up to International Labor Organization standards.

Increasing the pressure on the Turkish government to meet European demands is a report commissioned by an influential Turkish business group. That report urges improved treatment of Turkey's more than 10 million Kurds as a solution to the 11-year-old Kurdish separatist rebellion.

The report by the Union of Chambers and Trade Bourses (TOBB) says support for the rebellious Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) would weaken if the government heeded Kurds' social and economic grievances and permitted the expression of pro-Kurdish sentiments. "Suspending freedoms and postponing democratic rights in the fight against terrorism is imitating the terrorists," the report said.

The report is remarkable because Turkish establishment groups have rarely questioned the official view that the PKK rebellion is nothing but a "terrorist" problem. Past studies have largely neglected the opinions of Kurds affected by the violence.

The report also included an opinion poll which raises the taboo subject of Kurdish autonomy.

The poll indicated that most Kurds would opt for autonomy in the southeast, or for being part of a national federation if they had the chance to change Turkey's political make-up. At present, forming separatist political parties or advocating the division of Turkey in any way is against the law.

The report criticizes the practice by Ciller and previous leaders of treating the Kurdish problem as solely a security issue. "Pushing forward with economic, administrative and cultural initiatives independent of the [military's] armed campaign would have benefits," according to the report.

Of the more than 1,200 people interviewed in the poll, most of them Kurds, 34 percent acknowledged having friends or relatives among the PKK guerrillas. However, the vast majority of interviewees were against a separate Kurdish state.

The Marxist PKK stressed independence in the first years after it took up arms in 1984, but recently it has been calling for Kurdish autonomy instead.

More than 40 percent of those polled said they favored a federal political system in Turkey. Thirteen percent wanted a Kurdish state, while another 13 percent were for autonomy.

The report concluded: "The solution is not in coming to agreement with the PKK, but with the local people."

James Dorsey is an American free-lance writer based in Istanbul.