Washington Report on Middle East Affairs, September 20, 1982, Pages 2-3

South Lebanon: Going?

The assassination of President-elect Bashir Gemayel and the takeover of West Beirut which followed in its wake are raising new questions about how long the Israelis plan to stay in Lebanon. Observers are in general agreement that Israel will eventually evacuate most of the country, but there are much stronger doubts about the answer to this question:

Does Israel really plan to leave south Lebanon?

Despite Prime Minister Begin's assurances that Israel "does not covet one square inch" of the country, there are plenty of indications on the ground that it may be laying the foundation for a de facto, if not official, annexation of the area which lies south of the Litani River.

Adding weight to this prospect are the expressed views of many Israeli economists that access to the waters of the Litani are essential for Israel's continued economic development, and a number of statements by senior Israeli officials espousing biblical claims. Cabinet minister Yuval Ne'eman said this summer that south Lebanon is "geographically and historically an integral part of the Land of Israel," and Mr. Begin has referred to the city of Tyre as a source of cedar wood for the building of Jewish temples in the biblical era.

Ever since the invasion, the Israeli attraction for south Lebanon has been evident in actions as well as words. From almost the moment it took control, Israel began using it as a market for its goods—and by now has already sold as much in south Lebanon as it sold to Egypt during all of 1981. The standard currency in the area has become the Israeli shekel. Although Israel has not at any time consulted Lebanon's central government over such formalities as import permits or customs duties, its vehicles move across the border delivering clothing, food, building materials and plastics. Ironically, many of the shops in Sidon which were wrecked during the Israeli invasion now sport brand-new windows of plate-glass, made in Israel. But even bigger and better imports are still to come, if you believe David Brodet, an official of Israel's Ministry of Industry and Trade which has opened an office in Sidon. Mr. Brodet told a visitor that Israel plans eventually to export to south Lebanon high-technology products such as medical diagnostic equipment.

To cope with the boom in trade—and with an influx of Israeli-sponsored tourism—the transportation links between south Lebanon and Israel are being tightened. Israel has begun to schedule short commercial plane flights between Israeli airports and a renovated air strip near the south Lebanon town of Nabatiyeh. An Israeli airlines (El Al) office in Sidon takes bookings. Israel has closed down seaport operations in Sidon and Tyre, and suggested to local exporters that they move their goods through the Israeli port of Haifa. A newly paved road between Lebanon and Israel is used by Israeli trucks for trans-shipments.

In addition, utilities and other services have come under Israeli control. Israelis oversee the distribution of electricity, water and fuel, and channel mail from south Lebanon through the Israeli postal system. A direct-dial telephone system has also been put into operation between Israel and Lebanon's south.

Meanwhile, although one of Israel's declared war aims has been the establishment of a "strong, central government" for Lebanon as a whole, it has not been giving any encouragement to this idea in the south. Units of the Lebanese army, which Lebanon's government has been trying to use as replacements for the nation's independent militias, have been disarmed by Israeli troops. On the other hand, militias sympathetic to Israel, such as the Phalangists and the troops of Israel's longtime Lebanese proxy, Major Saad Haddad, have been allowed free rein to act as Israel's enforcers and settle old scores.

It is being noted by some analysts that Israel succeeded, during the four-year period between its earlier, 1978 invasion and the new one of last June, in keeping a de facto military presence in a strip of Lebanon's territory through the use of a surrogate Lebanese militia—even after Israel had assured the U.S. and the U.N. that it had withdrawn entirely from Lebanese territory. They think there is a good chance that history could repeat itself—but this time, the "unofficial" Israeli control would extend over a much larger area.