Mideast Bills: The Finale

By Allan Kellum

Three Middle East-related bills are expected to be considered before the gavel falls on October 4 to close the 98th session of Congress: 1) Foreign aid legislation, 2) a bill to create a free trade area with Israel, and 3) the so-called "Jerusalem Bill."

It is virtually certain Congress will appropriate funds for the foreign aid program. What is most likely to happen is that this legislation will be attached to a larger omnibus stop-gap funding measure called a "continuing resolution." Israel is expected to receive the largest amount of any single country: a total of about $2.6 billion, composed of $1.4 billion in military aid and $1.2 billion in economic assistance. For the first time ever, the Reagan Administration has asked Congress to provide all assistance for Israel (as well as for Egypt) entirely on a grant basis, with no repayments whatsoever. Congress has so far concurred, and may also offer an amendment so that, henceforth, U.S. economic aid to Israel will be at least as much as Israel's annual debt to the U. S. Egypt, which, since the signing of the Camp David Accords, has received only slightly less aid than Israel, is expected to get close to $2 billion.

"Best Aid Package for Israel"

There is also a strong likelihood that policy-setting amendments favorable to Israel will be attached to the continuing resolution. For example, for the second consecutive year Israel is expected to get permission to spend a portion of its military aid to develop its own Lavi jet fighter. No other country is allowed to spend its American aid money in this way. Another provision expected for passage would allow Israel to receive all $1.2 billion of its U.S.-supplied economic assistance within the first quarter of fiscal 1985—rather than in quarterly installments, as is customary. Both these provisions and others were approved last month by a House appropriations subcommittee, which chairman Clarence Long (D-MD) described as "the best aid package for Israel we have ever been able to get through."

On top of all this, Israel may ask the Administration this month for an additional $750 million in "emergency aid." This money also could be attached to a continuing resolution.

Congress is also considering legislation which would authorize the Reagan Administration to conclude a free trade area (FTA) with Israel, whereby all tariffs and non-tariff barriers would be removed on trade between the two countries. Criticism of the bill has been growing, with members arguing that it would result in a loss of American jobs. The Senate Finance Committee approved the measure last May and has attached it to an omnibus tariffs bill. A House-Senate conference on the bill is expected as soon as it is passed by the full Senate, and as soon as the House (which has already approved the larger omnibus bill) approves its version of the FTA—which is currently in the Ways and Means Committee, chaired by Dan Rostenkowski (D-IL). How quickly Mr. Rostenkowski moves on the measure may well determine whether or not it is approved by Congress this year.

The fate of the so-called "Jerusalem Bill"—the bill mandating that the U.S. embassy in Israel be moved from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem—depends upon the outcome of current negotiations between the White House and congressional representatives of the two House subcommittees handling the legislation, who are seeking some sort of compromise. If the White House gives in, the bill may not surface again until next year, and then in a new, non-binding form. But, if the Administration does not budge, the House is expected to move ahead rapidly, with passage a virtual certainty if it comes to a vote.

It is a different story on the Senate side, where Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Charles Percy (R-IL) has confined the bill to a single hearing and promises to keep the bill bottled up. Furthermore, Senate Majority Leader Howard Baker (R-IL) would like to keep it off the Senate's agenda. However, Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan (D-NY) may try an end run by attaching the bill to some other legislation, such as the continuing resolution.

Allan Kellum is editor of Mideast Observer. A sample of his publication may be obtained by writing Mideast Observer, P.O. Box 2397, Washington, D.C. 20013.