Afghanistan's Taliban Draw World Attention Again

by M.M. Ali

Afghan Gen. Abdul Malik Pahelwan did to his immediate superior and fellow Uzbek, Gen. Abdul Rasheed Dostam, what Dostam had done a few years earlier to General Najibullah, the originally Soviet-backed ruler of Afghanistan. Abdul Malik broke ranks with Dostam and invited the Taliban militia into the northwestern Afghan city of Mazar-e Sharif, forcing Dostam to flee to Turkey. This was a major breakthrough for the Taliban, who are mostly Pashtoons, and who had not been able to cross the Hindukush mountain range and engage the Uzbek armies of Dostam or the Tajik forces of Ahmed Shah Masoud in the north.

The May 24 capture of Mazar-e Sharif, which meant that Taliban occupied 90 percent of Afghanistan, drew headlines all over the world. The New York Times called it "A Triumph of Fundamentalism." The Washington Post reported "Opposition Bastion Falls in Afghanistan." And The Washington Times proclaimed "Opposition Collapses in Afghanistan." Russia, which when it was the Soviet Union was badly mauled by the Afghans, warned Taliban that it would send its troops to halt any Taliban spillover into any of the central Asian republics lying between Russia and Afghanistan. Pakistan and Saudi Arabia rushed to recognize the Taliban regime, and Iran expressed unhappiness over the apparent Taliban triumph.

The Taliban wasted no time in imposing its uniquely extreme version of Islam on the people of Mazar-e Sharif. The generally clean-shaven Uzbek men were told they would have to grow beards. Their wives were told they could no longer work outside their homes. Their daughters were told they could no longer go to school. Then the Taliban set out to disarm the city's existing militias, starting with the Shi'i Hazaras. The Hazaras resisted, and suddenly Taliban fighters found themselves fighting not only the Hazaras but also the well-armed Uzbeks, who had not enjoyed their brief taste of occupation.

Within 48 hours the Taliban had been ejected from Mazar-e Sharif, leaving behind an estimated 300 dead, along with many prisoners, including Taliban Foreign Minister Mullah Mohammed Ghouse, who was captured by the Uzbeks. According to Western press reports, a small Pakistani diplomatic contingent that had been sent to set up an office in the city also was detained briefly before being allowed to leave.

Since the fall of Kabul, Afghanistan's capital, to the Taliban more than a year ago, three ministates have existed simultaneously in Afghanistan, with most of the Iran-supported Hazaras subject to none of them. While the Taliban controlled the entire area south of the Hindukush mountains, former Defense Minister Ahmed Shah Masoud has consolidated his hold over Tajik territory in the northeast, and Uzbek General Dostam had occupied the northwestern Uzbek area.

The Taliban were kept at bay mostly by geography.

Meanwhile, although the Taliban had grown in strength and numbers as they moved north from Kandahar to Kabul over a three-year period, its followers were mostly untrained young men recruited from Afghan refugees attending Islamic schools in Pakistan. By contrast, Masoud and Dostam commanded more disciplined and better equipped troops, and Dostam even had a small but effective air force.

However, the Taliban were kept at bay mostly by geography. The Salang Pass was the only way of crossing from the south into the north, and both Masoud's and Dostam's forces were poised to halt any such Taliban crossing. Only defections in Dostam's ranks opened a way for the Taliban. When Abdul Malik led a mutiny on the ground, Gen. Yusuf Shah defected with the airplanes and helicopters of Dostam's air force from Mazar-e Sharif to Kabul.

A Fluid Situation

The debacle in Mazar-e Sharif is a major setback, but not necessarily a fatal one, for the Taliban. The situation is fluid, to put it mildly. Abdul Malik is again holed up in Mazar-e Sharif. Masoud has launched an attack on Taliban troops in the north and has blown up the Salang Pass, cutting them off from reinforcements from their Taliban compatriots in the south.

That problem, however, may be overcome. According to knowledgeable sources, Abdul Malik may still be willing to work things out with the Taliban if some of the fears of his Uzbek followers with regard to Taliban excesses can be allayed. With the loss to Taliban of the air force, Malik knows he is now on much weaker ground.

For its part, Taliban will have to show new restraint in dealing with the people of all of the areas it occupies. From reports trickling into Washington it is understood that "outside counsel" from Taliban's Saudi and Pakistani backers may prevail, and the coming weeks may see Taliban re-enter Mazar-e Sharif.

If this happens, Ahmed Shah may have to deal with the Taliban alone. His Tajiks, too, are sick and tired of Afghanistan's unending war. Afghanistan may come under unified Taliban control as early as this fall, or perhaps next spring when the snows melt and armies can move again, hopefully paving the way for post-war recovery work to start.

For example, a long-delayed $2.5 billion pipeline project of the Unocal Corporation of California, already agreed to by the Taliban, can be started as soon as stability returns. The pipeline will link the gas fields of Turkmenistan through Afghanistan to Pakistan and the sea. But peace, the prerequisite for the return of any semblance of prosperity to devastated Afghanistan, still is not necessarily just around the corner.