Washington Report on Middle East Affairs, July/August 1998, Pages 52, 95

Special Report

UNSCOM’s Richard Butler Tells Chicago Audience He Is “Truly Mystified” by Saddam Hussain’s Behavior

By Sam Cahnman

Just four months ago the United States, with thousands of its troops in the Persian Gulf and thousands more mobilized at home, went to the brink of another war with Saddam Hussain, this time over Iraq’s blocking of United Nations arms inspectors from certain so-called “presidential sites.”

The leader of those inspectors, Australian career diplomat Richard Butler, told a packed hotel ballroom in Chicago’s western suburbs this spring that “we aren’t that far from the end [of our mission of ridding Iraq of weapons of mass destruction] except for biological weapons.” But Butler tempered his optimism by describing those biological weapons as a “dark hole.”

Butler, a frequent talking head on the Sunday morning news shows as the crisis escalated in February, told the Chicago Council on Foreign Relations that the crisis was never just about palaces, but about government and office buildings as well.

“Last December Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Tariq Aziz told me of certain sovereign presidential sites which ‘you are absolutely prohibited from going to.’ I said I don’t think the [United Nations] Security Council will like this. When I told the Council, they didn’t. Then we went to five minutes to midnight.”

Butler, who was involved in the preparation for U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan’s February mission to Baghdad, said he wouldn’t have bet on its success. But the Australian diplomat now has nothing but the highest praise for Annan, declaring, “His visit to Baghdad will stand in the annals of 20th-century diplomacy as second to none. He was able to get Iraq to agree to a document which is of irreducible significance—to allow us to enter the eight presidential sites, and to withdraw from the notion that some sites were off-limits [to inspectors] in Iraq. Now there’s no place we can’t go.”

Since the signing of the agreement, Butler’s inspectors, accompanied by a team of diplomats as required by the agreement reached by Kofi Annan, have been to all eight presidential sites, with more than 1,000 buildings. There were some disputes with the Iraqis, but, Butler said, “We negotiated and solved the bumps in the road.” Butler wouldn’t directly confirm reports that the sites had undergone extensive evacuation, saying his team was surveying the buildings rather than inspecting them. However, with tongue in cheek, he did say the Iraqis had “cleansed them a bit, perhaps out of hospitality.”

Butler said he’ll send the inspectors back to the sites for more thorough inspections.

Butler credited Annan’s success to diplomacy backed up with “a hint of force” and Annan’s personality. “He has a touch in relations with people that is truly remarkable,” Butler said.

Iraq is unique in the 53-year history of the United Nations.

The Australian, who acknowledged Illinois’ world-renowned hero by mentioning that his 19-year-old son is a big Michael Jordan fan, pointed out that Iraq is unique in the 53-year history of the U.N. “Iraq is the only U.N. member to ever completely invade and annex another entire member state,” Butler said. He noted that this in part explains why the U.N. singled out Iraq for such strict treatment regarding its weapons of mass destruction.

Butler noted that the elimination of Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction was set up as a three-step process. First Iraq had 15 days to declare what weapons it had and where they were. Then Butler’s team, officially called the United Nations Special Commission (UNSCOM), was to verify Iraq’s declarations. Finally UNSCOM and Iraq together were to “destroy, remove, or render harmless” all Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction. Once the weapons are eliminated, the U.N. resolution calls for continued monitoring to ensure that Iraq does not rebuild them.

The main hang-up has been Iraq’s failure to make truthful declarations about its weapons of mass destruction. For example, Butler said the Iraqis initially divided their missiles into two categories: “what they told us about and what they hid.”

Butler noted that for four-and-a-half years, the Iraqis denied having any biological weapons program. Although Iraq now has revealed some of its biological weapons, Butler disclosed that in April international experts concluded that Iraq’s declarations on biological weapons were “not credible.”

Butler said he is “truly mystified” by Iraq. “I can’t understand how it can be worth it to the Iraqis to give up all that oil revenue [because of trade sanctions] to hold on to a small amount of [highly toxic] VX [gas] or a certain amount of biological weapons,” Butler said.

Further Revelations

The Australian pointed out that once the Iraqis reveal certain facts, his experts know that other unrevealed facts must follow. For example, if there are warheads, there must be something with which to fill them—chemical or biological agents. If there are missiles, there must also be launchers. For biological weapons, if there is a certain amount of one item, Butler’s experts know how much of another item it took to make it.

Butler showed his human side when asked about the effects of sanctions on the citizens of Iraq. Because sanctions prevent Iraq from selling oil, the government does not have the money to buy enough food and medicine for its population.

Brad Simpson, of the Chicago-based anti-sanctions group Voices in the Wilderness, asked if the sanctions, which he claimed killed half a million Iraqi children, weren’t more destructive than any chemical or biological weapons Iraq might have. Butler demurred, contending that sanctions weren’t part of his job, but then added that the sanctions were not directed at the Iraqi people.

But after his talk, Butler pulled the Northwestern University graduate student aside and, according to Simpson, expressed frustration at what the sanctions are doing to the Iraqi people. “We’re between a rock and a hard place,” Simpson said Butler told him. “Our folks are really concerned about this. They don’t know what to do and are frustrated by Saddam’s behavior.”

The American History Ph.D. candidate, who saw mothers caring for dying children in hospitals when he helped deliver donated medical supplies to Iraq in December 1996, asked Butler how he could explain the necessity of sanctions to an Iraqi mother who lost a child because of them. “I couldn’t,” Butler responded.

Butler said progress has been made in the areas of nuclear weapons, long-range missiles and chemical weapons, except for VX gas. That and the biological weapons are the main areas left for his inspectors.

He added that if the Iraqis read his report to the U.N. Security Council closely, they will see a road out. If they give U.N. inspectors total cooperation and allow them unfettered access to any place in Iraq, the whole process could be over in 1998, Butler concluded.

(At publication time in mid-June Butler, with Aziz by his side, told reporters in Baghdad that he had reached an agreement with Iraq on a two-month timetable to end U.N. inspections. After two months, Butler and Aziz are to review the status of disarmament, and if the work is done satisfactorily, Butler said he believed the U.N. would be in a position to lift the sanctions. That decision, however, is up to the Security Council, whose Russian and French members are pressuring Butler to end the inspections as soon as possible, according to diplomatic sources in Baghdad. U.S. officials remain skeptical about a quick end to the sanctions, but declined to comment, according to the Associated Press.)

The chief weapons inspector disagreed with those who say that even if the weapons issue is resolved with the U.N., the United States would still insist on maintaining sanctions for other reasons, such as human rights violations, as long as Hussain is in power. “There would be no political will to maintain the sanctions if the weapons issue is resolved,” Butler said.