Americans Disapprove Present Israel Aid Level by Three to One

By Ella Bancroft

Americans who believe U.S. aid to Israel should be eliminated (23 percent) or decreased (42 percent) outnumber those who want it maintained at the present level (23 percent) by 65 to 23 percent—nearly three to one—according to a poll conducted April 19-24, 1995 by the John Zogby Group International of New York. Twelve percent of the 1,004 respondents contacted by the nationwide poll, conducted on behalf of the Saudi-owned Asharq Al-Awsat publishing group, had no opinion on the question.

The results were similar to a survey of 482 respondents conducted from Sept. 6-9, 1994 by the Wirthlin Group of Irvine, CA for the Council for the National Interest (CNI) of Washington, DC. In that poll, Americans who believe U.S. aid to Israel should be phased out (33 percent) or reduced (36 percent) outnumber those who believe it should be supported at the current level (18 percent) or increased (6 percent) by 69 percent to 24 percent—also nearly three to one—with six percent offering no opinion.

Wording of the question answered by the Wirthlin respondents was: "Israel has received 65 billion dollars in direct U.S. aid, the largest U.S. aid program in history. Given this, which of the following four statements comes closest to your opinion?" The four alternative statements suggested phase out, support at a lower level, support at the current level, and additional aid in view of the costs of peacemaking.

A second Wirthlin poll conducted April 17-20, 1995 for CNI asked 424 respondents: "What do you think is the level of annual U.S. foreign aid to Israel for each man, woman and child in Israel?" Thirteen percent of respondents chose $5 per Israeli; 17 percent chose $50 per Israeli; 20 percent chose $500 per Israeli; 14 percent chose $1,000 per Israeli; 14 percent chose $2,500 per Israeli and 22 percent offered no opinion.

In fact, U.S. aid to Israel's 5 million resident citizens includes $4.3 billion in direct military, economic and other grant aid and $2 billion in loan guarantees for a total of $1,260 per Israeli. That means that of the 78 percent of respondents who answered the question, 64 percent underestimated and only 14 percent overestimated per capita U.S. aid to Israel.

Summarizing both polls, it appears that 86 percent of Americans are unaware of the magnitude of U.S. aid to Israel. Yet, even though they underestimate the size of that aid, two-thirds of Americans want that aid reduced or discontinued. This makes even more remarkable the decision of congressional leaders of both major parties to take reductions in U.S. aid to Israel "off the table" in current budget reduction negotiations.

Israelis Oppose Golan Withdrawal

In a June 1995 survey, Israeli pollster Mina Tsemach found Israelis were 58 percent against and 29 percent for "a full withdrawal from the Golan Heights in stages in return for full peace with Syria and suitable security arrangements." An additional 13 percent were undecided. The findings were consistent with polls over the past three years in which Israelis have opposed the current Israeli government's goal of a land-for-peace deal with Syria by margins of two to one.

Surprisingly, spokesmen for both the Golan settlers opposed to the agreement and Israeli peace groups supporting it were unimpressed with the negative reaction by the volatile Israeli public. Golan settler spokesman Uri Heitner said his group's goal is to prevent an agreement with Syria before Israel's Oct. 29, 1996 elections, in which the incumbent Labor coalition government headed by Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin may be replaced by a coalition headed by Likud leader Benyamin Netanyahu, who opposes any land-for-peace deal.

If an agreement is reached before that date, Heitner predicts, "Rabin will try to brainwash the people with fear. He'll tell the voters: 'We've already reached an agreement with Syria, and if you reject it in a referendum, the Syrians will go to war with us.'"

From the Israeli left, Peace Now leader Tsali Reshef also predicts that if the Rabin government can reach a peace agreement with Syria, Israeli attitudes concerning trading the Golan Heights for peace will undergo an "upheaval." He cites the example of the years before Egyptian President Anwar Sadat's 1977 visit to Israel during which Israelis generally opposed giving up all of the Sinai for peace with Egypt by ratios of four to one. Yet eventually Israel withdrew totally from Sinai.

"As long as there is no agreement, Israelis feel there's no one for us to talk to," said Reshef. "But the moment Assad demonstrates his readiness for peace, there will be an upheaval in public opinion. As soon as Rabin and Assad are photographed shaking hands, it will be a whole new ballgame. The shift in public opinion will be almost automatic."

Palestinians Still Support Arafat, Fatah, and Peace Negotiations

Despite setbacks in the peace process, 67 percent of Palestinians living in the West Bank and Gaza supported continuation of the peace negotiations with Israel in a March 16-18 poll conducted by the Center for Palestine Research and Studies of Nablus, Occupied Palestine. The Center, which eschews political positions and which receives support from the International Republican Institute in Washington, DC, bases its results on questionnaires prepared during face-to-face interviews conducted by pairs of pollsters throughout the West Bank and Gaza. Each pair of poll workers must include at least one woman to facilitate access to households throughout the area, with respondents selected to give an accurate cross-section of the Palestinian population over age 18 in terms of geographical respresentation, age and sex.

The March poll, the 16th conducted by CPRS, was based upon a total of 1,296 interviews and, like its predecessors, revealed that Palestinians in the areas actually affected by the peace talks are considerably more positive about them, and the Palestinian National Authority, than might be expected from press coverage of events in the occupied territories and Gaza, and interviews with members of the Palestinian diaspora in surrounding countries and in the United States.

Following are the main findings of the poll:

67% of the Palestinians supported continuation of negotiations; 21% opposed continuing them;

33% supported armed attacks against Israeli targets; 44% opposed them; 23% had no opinion;

65% supported two independent states: Palestine and Jordan; 29% supported either confederation with Jordan (14%) or complete unity (15%).

49% were optimistic; 32% were pessimistic; 19% were not sure. Optimism was higher in Gaza, from which Israeli forces had withdrawn, than in the West Bank, where Israeli forces remained.

52% opposed extending the Palestinian Authority to Jenin before other areas; 33% supported it.

37% evaluated the Palestinian Authority's performance as excellent or good; 30% as fair; 17% as weak or bad.

53% felt that the economic situation had deteriorated. (Actually, the unemployment level in the West Bank and Gaza at the time of the survey had decreased to 38% from 51% the previous month.)

56.5% supported Yasser Arafat and 48.4% (presumably the same respondents) supported Fatah, his mainstream faction within the PLO.

Asked their preferences for president of the Palestinian National Authority, respondents selected Yasser Arafat by 56.5%; Ahmad Yassin, the imprisoned Hamas leader, 13.5%; independent Gaza leader Dr. Haider Abdel Shafi, 7.6%; George Habash of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, 3.2%; and others 19%.

Support for Arafat, which has grown steadily since November 1994 when it was 44.2%, was higher in the Gaza Strip than in the West Bank. Support for Yassin, which has declined steadily since November 1994 when it was 19.7%, was roughly equal in both areas.