After the Gandhi Assassination, Only Unpredictability is Predictable

By M. M. Ali

If Rajiv Gandhi had any premonition about the tragedy that awaited him on May 21, 1991, he would not have precipitated the political crisis that led Prime Minister Chandra Shekar to resign and call for general elections. Of all the possible outcomes of the resulting elections I discussed in the May/ June issue of the Washington Report, only such a heinous assassination never occurred to me. Murders, political or otherwise, do not offer any solutions to issues such as those presently facing India.

When I left Washington on the day Rajiv Gandhi was assassinated, I had hoped to do a pre- and a post-election analysis from New Delhi. Now, after the tragedy that has changed all my assumptions, hundreds of journalists have descended on New Delhi from all over the world.

All will discover that images are not universal and perspectives change with time and place. The view of the world that was available to me from Washington was progressively reduced. The outlook from Islamabad or New Delhi is at best regional, and generally merely national. Political lines on the globe are deeper here.

The political changes in the area, nevertheless, are important to the world at large. Over a billion people here live in abject poverty, the economic growth rate is minuscule, and the population keeps increasing at over 25 million each year.

Had Sonia Gandhi agreed to be even the nominal head of the Congress Party, she would have been ruthlessly attacked from the left and right. The fact that she was born in Italy, not India, would have made her a very vulnerable target.

The electorate in a parliamentary democracy, unlike a presidential system, does not elect the chief executive (the prime minister). It only elects members of the legislature. The legislators, it is important to note, are elected most of the time on the basis of local and/or state agendas. The political parties in turn organize their respective legislative groups. The party that controls the majority in the legislature forms the government. Its leader becomes the prime minister. This elementary understanding of the system is important, particularly in the light of current developments.

The democratic tradition that we all thought was gradually evolving in India for the past 35 years or so has abruptly been challenged. Now nothing can be taken for granted. Unpredictability has become the hallmark of Indian politics.

The assassination of 47-year-old Congress Party leader Rajiv Gandhi removed the leader of the only national party of any consequence. The Indian elections that were less than half-way through had to be suspended. With their resumption, dark horses may have their day. All " odds " on the election are suddenly "even."

"Compromise" the Key Word

Narasimha Rao, 70, the new Congress president, is merely an interim leader to see the party through the rest of the elections. Originally Rao had declined to run in these elections on grounds of health. He agreed to become the party chief as a compromise candidate. From now on, "compromise" will be the key word in Indian politics.

Indian leaders seeking to fill the vacuum created by the removal of Rajiv from the scene are largely men and women who enjoy local or at most regional support and acquaintance. Many are former Congressites now identified with religious fanaticism, such as that of Advani's Bharatiya Janat Party (BJP), or with unfinished agendas like the cause of the depressed classes and the untouchables, as in the case of the Janta Dal of V.P. Singh. Other dissidents like Chandra Shekar are still searching for a vehicle. Everyone is scrambling.

In early May, the speculation was that no party would win an outright majority and India would be faced with yet another hung Parliament.

Now, with Rajiv gone, the splintering could be much more severe. To avert further fracturing of the nation's body politic, elder statesmen are calling for an all-party national government. Such a consensus, however, does not seem to be in the works. Initially at least, competing leaders do not appear to be in any mood for compromise.

Such an atmosphere is ominous in a country too big for such persistent internal strife. What happens in India in the coming months will have major repercussions on all of the other countries of the region. In the present political chaos, events in India may also have unexpected impacts on global affairs. In our world to date, unpredictability is not confined to India, but increasingly has become a hallmark of our age.

M. M. Ali is a professor at the University of the District of Columbia.