Turkey Cautiously Moving Toward "Normalizing" Relations with Iraq

By Sami Kohen

From the moment that Saddam Hussain's forces invaded Kuwait, the Turkish government decided to oppose strongly the Iraqi action and to side with the US and its Western allies.

President Turgut Ozal joined the anti-Saddam front promptly and without hesitation, cutting off all contacts and trade ties with Turkey's southern neighbor and implementing the UN-sponsored sanctions, including the closing down of the Kirkuk Yumurtalik oil pipeline. During the hostilities, the Ozal administration allowed the US to use its base facilities in Turkey not only for transit to the war zone but also for air raids against Iraq, in spite of domestic opposition. And, after the war, the Turks cooperated closely with the US and other allies for the return of the Kurdish refugees to their homes in northern Iraq, despite fears that coalition protection of Iraq's independence-minded Kurds might lead to political unrest in eastern Turkey.

Second Thoughts About Iraq

Now, 10 months after the start of the Gulf crisis, and three months after the end of the war, Turks are having second thoughts about their future policy towards the regime of Iraqi President Saddam Hussain. There are, in fact, indications of a shift in their attitude towards Iraq, and on Western policy in the Gulf as a whole.

Ozal, unlike his critics, is not sorry about the line taken by Turkey all through the Gulf crisis. He still defends it, firmly believing, as do many other Turks, that this was the right policy. Turkey opposes armed aggression on principle, supports the United Nations, and supports the US and other NATO allies. Ozal also considered Saddam as a threat to the whole region, including Turkey itself. In taking such a stance, however, Ozal also hoped that the US-led coalition would eventually win the war, and that Turkey would benefit from it.

Indeed, Turkey was on the winning side, but it suffered huge economic losses by fully implementing the sanctions, and it failed to receive the financial support which was promised by friendly European and Gulf nations. Moreover, at the end of the day, Turkey was confronted with the Kurdish refugee problem, which assumed dangerous domestic political dimensions.

All that is the background to the Ozal administration's new attitude. The Turkish president was very hopeful, along with US President George Bush, with whom he has been in constant touch by phone, that shortly after the war Saddam would be toppled. This did not happen, and, according to Turkish intelligence estimates, it will not happen soon.

So, Ozal believes, the time has come to deal with Saddam, whether one likes him or not.

Thus, the Ozal administration, which had ignored Saddam throughout the past 10 months, is renewing "contacts" with his regime. The visit of Iraqi Vice-Premier Tariq Aziz to Ankara was scheduled on June 12 and 13 as the first such contact.

Ozal believes the time has come to deal with Saddam.

The Iraqis had sent feelers as early as March for a resumption of normal relations with Turkey, but Ozal declined. Then ' late in May, Tariq Aziz expressed to former Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit, now leader of the Democratic Left Party, Iraq's disappointment over Turkey's lack of response. Aziz said the Iraqis were ready to "let bygones be bygones and start anew in our relationship."

Ozal seems now to agree. He calculates that the war and the crisis already have cost Turkey between $4 billion and $7 billion, and that the continuing economic embargo against Iraq is adding to that bill.

The Ozal administration has been under strong domestic pressure to ease or end the embargo. Iraq has signaled that it is ready to import large quantities of agricultural and industrial products from Turkey. In return it would sell oil to Turkey as in the past, if Turkey would agree to reopen the pipeline.

Although opposition parties, much of the press, and elements of the business community would support this, Ozal is reluctant to take unilateral action on the sanctions.

"There is no question of breaking the embargo, as long as the UN sanctions remain in force," according to senior Turkish officials. But the government is seeking loopholes in the UN resolutions. Turkey is likely to send food and medicine as "humanitarian" aid. There might also be "unofficial" trading through third parties (such as Jordan) or smuggling over the mountainous borders.

Ozal himself now seems convinced that the UN should reconsider its sanctions. He has told foreign diplomats and international bodies that sanctions will not work. On June 5 he told a visiting group of European Parliamentarians that "what is needed to end the sufferings in Iraq is a political solution. The economic embargo is not sufficient to bring about the desired solution. " Clearly Turkey will now campaign for easing, if not lifting totally, the sanctions.

The Turkish government also is feeling the disadvantage of having closed down its embassy in Baghdad. Talks between Kurdish leaders and the Iraqi government have been taking place without the Turks—who feel directly concerned—being properly informed about what is being said.

An Exchange of Views

Tariq Aziz's visit to Ankara provided an opportunity for such an exchange of views. The Turks want the Kurds in Iraq to have only limited autonomy that does not threaten Iraq's territorial integrity. Any special status that would encourage the Iraqi Kurds' desire for separation and independence would be considered a threat in Turkey, too, since most of the 12 million ethnic Kurds in Turkey live in the country's southeastern region, along the border with Iraq.

Politicians like Ecevit advocate closer contacts from now on with the Iraqi government on the Kurdish issue, in an effort to contain Kurdish aspirations. Ironically, the interests of the two neighboring countries are now closer than before on the Kurdish issue and, whether Ozal likes him or not, he has to deal with Saddam on this vital problem.

In the past, Saddam cooperated with Ankara on the Kurdish question, allowing Turkish troops to enter Iraqi territory in "hot pursuit" of Kurdish rebels engaged in attacks inside Turkey. The rebel Kurdish Communist Party (PKK) is still active in Turkey and now has "bases" in northern Iraq.

One way of continuing necessary contacts and exchanges is to restore normal diplomatic relations. Therefore Turkey is now considering reopening its embassy in Baghdad, to be directed at first by a charge d'affaires, rather than an ambassador.

Whether or not the US and Turkey's Western allies are happy with such a shift towards Iraq, the question now is only how far and how soon Turkey will be moving in the weeks ahead in "normalizing" its relations with its southern neighbor.

Sami Kohen is an editor of Milliyet newspaper in Istanbul.