JULY 2000, pages 50-53

Southern California Chronicle

Future of Iran, Iraq, Arab Gulf States Explored at UCLA International Conference

By Pat and Samir Twair

A decade after the Gulf war and 20 years since the onset of the Iran-Iraq war, UCLA scholars hosted a two-day conference entitled “Iran, Iraq, and the Arab Gulf States in 2000 and Beyond.”

A stellar cast of Middle East experts appeared for the May 3 sessions focusing on “Internal Concerns” and May 4 panels dealing with “Regional Concerns.” The conference was organized by Dr. Joseph A. Kechichian.

“Trends for the Future” was the title of the concluding panel with Prof. Afaf Lutfi al-Sayyid Marsot as chair. The consensus was that the Gulf Cooperation Council states need to expand ties with Iran and Iraq.

This was exemplified by Hassan Hamdan al-Alkim, who stated: “The United States views Iran and Iraq—not Israel—as the biggest threat to the region. Baghdad and Tehran are neighbors of the Gulf states, not Tel Aviv.”

In his paper dealing with “Challenges to Gulf Security in the 21st Century,” the United Arab Emirates University political scientist stated: “Unsettled border disputes, the arms race, as well as winds of change seem to have affected the people of the Gulf, but not their rulers.”

Even though unstable oil prices threaten the positions of the ruling families, Al-Alkim said there is a reluctance to concede to the demands of the people.

Reasoning that U.S. Gulf policy is driven by its concern for the security of Israel and the free flow of oil, the U.S. has spent more than $60 billion on the defense of the region. Part of this plan, he said, has been the dual containment of Iran and Iraq which has led to a dead end.

China and Russia object to the heavy U.S. presence in the Gulf. European nations, which obtain 20 percent of their oil from the region, disagree with Washington’s policy of making Israel its foremost concern in the Middle East.

“The U.S. obsession with Israel’s wellbeing fuels the arms race in the region,” the UAE scholar concluded. “The U.S. presence is creating regional instability and is preventing democratization by propping up monarchies and interfering in intra-family struggles, all of which deter concessions to the people.”

Dr. Shireen Hunter of the Center for Strategic and International Studies examined the potential for cooperation between Iran and the Gulf states.

Since the 1997 convening of an Islamic Conference in Tehran, there has been a general trend toward reconciliation, she pointed out. “And, in light of the provocative rhetoric of the Iranian revolutionaries, it is surprising that so many Arab states attended.”

Despite contrasts in population and resources and sectarian differences, Dr. Hunter said there is hope for reconciliation as territorial disputes are being solved. She noted that Washington prefers a state of distrust between the Arab Gulf states and Iran.

In fact, she said, the biggest threat to Iran may be its exploding population, which calls for creating one million new jobs each year.

Saif bin Hashil al-Maskery, who heads the Center for Research and Consultancy in al-Khuwair, Oman, opened his talk with population statistics. Iran and Iraq account for 76 percent of the total population, and when Yemen is brought into this equation, the three make up 82 percent of the population of the region.

Since the Gulf war, the Gulf states have explored three scenarios for stability, al-Maskery said. The easiest, but most expensive, is to depend on the West for protection. The second alternative was the 6 plus 2 (Syria and Egypt) solution, which was dropped after three months. The third, and least accepted, proposal was to create an axis with Iraq, Iran and Yemen, with a deterrent force of more than 100,000 troops.

Challenges facing the GCC states are internal border disputes, growing population with minimum job opportunities, slower economies since the oil boom, foreign workers (tensions between India and Pakistan affect Gulf states), and competition among GCC states, which hampers economic integration.

Noting that Iraq belonged to many sub-regional organizations before the Gulf war, Dr. al-Maskery said the mechanism of including Yemen, Iran and Iraq into regional cooperation should not be overlooked.

Author John E. Peterson tackled the topic, “What Makes the Gulf States Endure?”

Stressing that the Gulf states have gone through considerable changes over the past 50 years, Peterson noted that the basic conservative political lines and the institution of monarchy are intact in a world that for the most part has rejected monarchies.

“A generation of Gulf citizens has grown up with a common GCC identity” he noted. “The regimes have been responsive to the needs of their constituents and merchants have been allowed to operate in freedom.”

However, he predicted, if the monarchies are to survive, they must adapt to changes. The rapid growth of an educated middle class, which no longer accepts the paternal father-son model, must be taken into account. Royals who used to indulge in excesses must accept the reality that the oil boom was only temporary.

He pointed out that the U.S. has been behaving like a global bully, putting short-term emphasis on the status quo rather than on democratization. Satellite TV, he warned, will erode the paternalistic role of the monarchies.

“Relations are minimal with Asia, but that is where the economic future of the GCC lies,” he concluded.

The relationship between Central Asian states and the Gulf was detailed by Theodore Karasik of RAND, who pointed out that petroleum reserves in the Caspian area are not as high as they initially were believed to be.

He said the Russian imperial legacy is still very strong in the region. Iran earlier tried to reinvigorate trade, but these efforts failed. Security of Central Asia will depend on what Russian President Vladimir Putin wants it to be, because Central Asia remains within the Russian sphere of influence.

Further, Karasik noted, Saudi and Iranian efforts to establish diplomatic ties with Central Asian states are starting to fray. He attributed this to the “Bin Laden factor” or the export of Islamist philosophy to countries which have been influenced by the Soviet model for so many decades.

Lebanese Community Celebrates Israeli Withdrawal

Members of the Lebanese community in Los Angeles staged a celebration of the liberation of south Lebanon at an impromptu reception June 4 at the Four Points Sheraton Hotel near Los Angeles International Airport. The flags of Lebanon and the United States festooned a reception room where more than 200 celebrants gathered to hear speeches by the Lebanese consul general, a Lebanese-American Superior Court judge, poets, a Shi’i sheikh and community leaders.

Recalling the words of the classical Arab poet Almoutanabi, who said one must gather all his strength and with the help of God fearlessly face danger, Lebanese Consul General Dr. John Makaron said the Lebanese united to gather their strength to rid their land of the Israeli occupier.

“Whatever is taken by force, will be regained by force,” he said. “The Lebanese people love peace, but they will not remain passive forever under occupation.”

Sheikh Sayed Moustafa Qazwini prefaced his remarks by stating that although he is an Iraqi-American, he is a brother to all the Lebanese who struggled under Israeli occupation.

“Israel was occupying land that didn’t belong to it and the Muslims won because they were on the side of justice,” the Muslim leader said. “The Israelis didn’t withdraw from south Lebanon because they suddenly decided to be kind and adhere to U.N. Resolution 425. They left because of the peoples’ struggle to remove them.”

Issam Nasrallah was master of ceremonies and introduced Judge James Kaddo, who said: “How sweet it is to hear the words that our beloved south is free again.

“May 25 shall hereafter live in our memories as a day of significance. The Lebanese people proved their belief in God and belief in their cause that human flesh is mightier than armored steel.

“Our Shi’i brothers restored liberty. Let us honor those who have fallen and make sure their blood was not shed in vain by resolving to build a new Lebanon where one is not judged by his religion or the region in which he was born, but by his love of Lebanon.”

Hassan Essayli praised Hezbollah forces for their peaceful move into south Lebanon. He cited the situation during World War II when, he said, the Nazis abruptly pulled out of France and 10,000 French collaborators were rounded up and massacred by the resistance forces.

“The Israelis expected a similar act of retaliation when they suddenly withdrew,” he said, “but not one Lebanese collaborator died at the hand of the Hezbollah.”

Commented Dr. Souhail Toubia: “The Wall Street Journal quoted Ariel Sharon as boasting that Israel’s power came not only in being the military superpower of the Middle East but also in being able to manipulate the minorities within the Arab world to its advantage.

“We certainly disproved that when all the groups and all the minorities in Lebanon came together to defeat Israel.”

Arab American Press Guild president Samir Twair gave a bilingual commentary in which he stated Israel has met its worst nightmare: a forced withdrawal from its Vietnam…south Lebanon. “Now Israel may have to face its next nightmare: Peace on its border with Lebanon.”

Twair said the Lebanese will win if they don’t fall victim to Israel’s future provocations from across the liberated border. “This has been a civil takeover of the liberated land. Now we must communicate to the world that it is we who want peace.”

Druze Sheikh Mouazza Aridi delivered a rousing poem commemorating the liberation of south Lebanon. Other speakers were Khairi al-Hawari and Michel Shehadeh.

Sponsors were the consul general of Lebanon, Supporters of the Syrian Social National Party, Supporters of the Lebanese Movement of Southern Lebanon, the American-Arab Anti-Discrimination Committee and Arab American Press Guild.

Saudi Oil Minister Views Future of Market

In the early 1970s, it was predicted the world would start running out of oil by the 21st century, stated Ali I. Al-Naimi, minister of petroleum and mineral resources of Saudi Arabia, but the predictions were a bit off. “Now, the U.S. Geological Survey estimates there are two trillion barrels of oil in the ground,” he told the Los Angeles World Affairs Council at a May 8 program.

While the Arabian Gulf region continues to contain the bulk of global oil reserves, he noted that other areas, such as offshore West Africa, the eastern coast of South America and possibly the Caspian area, will add new reserves.

Conservation of oil has come about primarily through government mandates, he explained. In the early 1970s, 30 percent of the world’s electric power generating plants burned oil products as fuel, but this is declining to less than 10 percent.

Commenting on the hike in oil prices by the first week of March this year, when the price exceeded $34 per barrel, the minister said Saudi Arabia was concerned about the high prices and their possible negative impact on consuming countries and the world economy at large.

In response, OPEC producers and others increased production before the end of March by two million barrels. He explained that OPEC has adopted a mechanism to stabilize the oil market so that a sharp decrease in prices as occurred in 1998 or the recent price hike can be avoided.

In the future, Minister Al-Naimi said, the oil industry will be shaped by four critical factors: population growth, economic growth, government regulations and technology.

“Population is expected to increase most in the less-developed economies, where oil is used primarily for cooking, heating and lighting,” he said. “However, as these expanding societies seek modern transportation systems and heating and cooling technologies, their call for petroleum will rise dramatically.”

“We expect a global economic growth rate of at least 3 percent in the coming decades,” he continued. “This, along with an expanding global population, will boost annual oil demand by at least 1.5 percent.”

There are offsets to this predicted 1.5 percent annual growth, he pointed out. The most important is government policies that can shape the future use of oil. Excessive taxation on oil products, as occurs in Europe, can minimize oil consumption, but he attributed the spectacular economic growth in the U.S. to less regulation and lower taxation of oil.

Minister Al-Naimi defined technology as the most important factor for the future of the oil market. It can be the catalyst for increasing oil reserves through production methods, and/or it can lead to lower use of oil and the rapid development of alternative energy.

It is technical innovations that discovered vast global reserves in the past two decades, he stressed. While research into alternative energy technology is being vigorously followed, practical substitutes for oil are not likely to be found in the foreseeable future.

“Oil may be a finite resource,” he concluded, “but it brought bright light during the last century to our world, and we should keep it doing so for our coming generations in this century.”

Jordan’s King Abdullah Eyes Information Technology as Key to Economic Survival

Lauding communications technology as a means to make Jordan’s desert bloom economically and stating the political situation is ripe for immediate peace, Jordan’s King Abdullah II struck a high note of optimism at a June 5 address to the Los Angeles World Affairs Council.

In his first visit to California since he assumed the throne last year, King Abdullah and his radiant Palestinian wife, Queen Rania, received a standing ovation from the audience of more than 1,000 who turned out to see the young royals.

The couple was accompanied by former Secretary of State Warren Christopher, who that morning had escorted them on a whirlwind tour of high tech firms in Northern California’s Silicon Valley, some 400 miles north of Los Angeles.

In introducing the monarch, who attended the Deerfield Academy in Massachusetts, Oxford University and the Royal Military Academy at Sandhurst, Secretary Christopher noted that King Abdullah is trying to learn firsthand the needs of his people. He specified the young king’s penchant for donning a disguise and visiting trouble spots.

“He may appear as a rotund, bearded, one-eyed vagabond,” Christopher joshed. “He doesn’t travel in a limousine. He takes a taxi” (on his junkets to observe the performance of civil servants and the attitudes of his subjects).

“The world watches the United States and gets a glimpse of things to come,” Abdullah told his Los Angeles audience. “In the U.S., people watch what is happening in California and they predict the model of the future.”

The king said he wants his nation to develop a California-style economy, with telecommunications and data systems that will enable Jordanians to work and prosper in their own country.

“Jordan is a small country with big ideas,” he continued. “California has set an example to the world for dealing with natural resources and, unfortunately, natural disasters. It offers many lessons in productivity. We in Jordan are closely watching.”

He noted the Middle East is finally heeding the call of ordinary men and women, both Arab and Israeli, to find solutions to complex issues that divide, and adopt simple human virtues that unite.

In an unspoken reference to his fellow new monarchs in Morocco and Bahrain, Abdullah said “We all realize we shoulder a great responsibility toward our people and toward humanity. It is an obligation to develop a new code of conduct that would secure the right of all, to live in peace, to belong to stable homelands, and to be free of the burden of military occupations, and the threats of violence.”

Turning to the subject of regional cooperation, the monarch said this should emphasize the need for transnational coordination in security matters, joint development of resources and free movement of goods and services across borders.

Not only would such a model address disparities between states in the region, but would “lay the foundation for implementing projects related to water desalination and conveyance, energy exploration and distribution and environmental protection.”

Through the development of information technology, services and tourism, the king expressed his vision of a Jordan whose people will have the opportunity to live, work and prosper in the nation of their birth.

He expressed pride that Jordan was the only nation to be admitted last year to the World Trade Organization.

“We have made it a priority to secure the necessary means for elevating educational and training standards. This is the real advantage that will launch information technology in Jordan,” he concluded.

During the question-and-answer session, the king was asked how, in light of Israel’s and Dubai’s foothold on technology, can Jordan hope to compete?

“We are not speaking of competition, so much as cooperation,” he replied. “It is fantastic what Dubai has achieved, but we have human resources to go around. I don’t want the United Arab Emirates to take our workers, I would prefer our workers to have jobs at home.

“If all of us could come together in cooperation—the Israelis, Syrians, Jordanians, Palestinians, Lebanese—think what an unbeatable pool of talent this would be.”

Another question dealt with the region’s water shortage.

“I am concerned this could be a source of conflict. But we can also use water to bring countries together. All the downstream nations must cooperate.”

When asked if Jordan is financially able to carry out the goals he had enumerated that afternoon, Abdullah replied: “Not as much as I would like, but I can’t give up.”

He recalled pledges of financial aid made in the 1980s to Jordan which never came through. This, he said in a June 3 interview with CNN’s Larry King, left Jordan heavily in debt to the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.

On the sensitive issue of Jerusalem, he diplomatically stated: “If we are to begin the new millennium the right way, we should look at Jerusalem with open hearts. Politically, I believe there is enough room for two capitals for two people. From the religious perspective, Jerusalem is a holy site for three religions, and wouldn’t it be good for it to be open for all to live together?”

A final question dealt with Israel’s withdrawal from Lebanon.

“The withdrawal has been a terrific plus for the peace process. Initially there was great concern there would be strife on the border. There have been no cross border incidents since May 25.

“Some would say it is too difficult to have peace. I recall when the Israelis and Palestinians were at a deadlock during talks at the Wye Plantation. My father left his bed at the Mayo Clinic to mediate between both sides. He lost his temper in exasperation and told them it takes people to open doors and it was their responsibility to find a way to make peace, that it was for the welfare of their people.

“We can’t afford to give up on peace and the future for our children.”

Syrian Americans Mourn Assad’s Death

Immediately after receiving word of the death of Syria’s President Hafez Al-Assad on June 1, the Syrian Arab American Association of Southern California began planning an a’zzaa (wake) for the fallen leader. The future Syrian-American Community Center is under construction in the city of Norwalk, so SAAA board members decided to present the a’zzaa at the Norwalk Marriott Hotel across the street from the center.

A reception room was rented for the evenings of June 11 and 12 and during the first two hours of the first day, more than 200 mourners paid their condolences. Among them was Syria’s honorary Consul General Dr. Hazem Chehabi.

“This is a tragic loss for all of us,” stated the Newport Beach-based physician. “Under the guidance of Hafez Al-Assad, Syria gained a prominent position in the world [and] he saved our brothers in Lebanon”

As surahs from the Qur’an were continuously recited, guests entered the reception room where flowers and the Syrian flag flanked a large photo of Hafez Al-Assad. Guests shook hands with board members of the SAAA and with others seated in chairs placed against four walls. On one wall were large photos of Assad and his son, Bashar Al-Assad.

Pat and Samir Twair are free-lance journalists based in Los Angeles.