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May/June 1991, Page 48 Special Report
The Taif Agreement: Still On Schedule After 1-1/2Years
By Susan SmithSupported by the Arab Summit Conference in Casablanca and brokered in October 1989 by the Higher Arab Committee, composed of the kings of Saudi Arabia and Morocco and the president of Algeria, the Taif Agreement was launched with the endorsement of the League of Arab States and the United Nations. In November 1989 it was ratified by the Lebanese Chamber of Deputies, and Lebanon's new National Unity Government adopted the Taif Agreement, now called the Document of National Accord, as its program of work. Then, the president and prime minister, in September 1990, promulgated the Second Republic of Lebanon, and the Taif Agreement became an integral part of the Lebanese constitution. High among its lists of promises are:
Militiamen have left the city but "are still going to bed with their guns tucked under their pillows."Now a year and a half old, the Taif Agreement seemingly has brought an effective end to 16 years of civil war in Lebanon. Dr. Khalil Makkawi, Lebanon's ambassador to the United Nations, says the Agreement has allowed the Lebanese "incrementally to put their house in order. " President Elias Hrawi has been able to keep up with the Taif Agreement's timetable, while avoiding the fate of assassination met by two of his predecessors in the past nine years. In November of last year, the routing from the Baabda Palace of General Michel Aoun, who had sought to set up a rival government, proved a watershed. All militias in the Greater Beirut area got the message that, sooner or later, they too would be isolated and defeated. All were disbanded or withdrew from the city. Obstacles remain, however. At least one of the private am-lies, Hezbollah, has publicly defied the government's edict to surrender its weapons to the state of Lebanon, and others may have held back. In the words of one American Druze who had just returned from the Chouf, militiamen have left the city but "are still going to bed with their guns tucked under their pillows." Despite this and the new economic havoc wreaked on Lebanon by the Gulf war, the government was able to expand its cabinet last December to 30 members, including representatives of six of the eight militias. Exceptions were the Iranian-funded Shi'i Hezbollah and the Maronite Christian Lebanese Forces. Then, in the last week of March, Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea resigned, nominating in his place Roger Deeb, who in turn joined. the National Unity Government as minister of state.
The Government Reaches OutThis broadly-based government has thus reached out to include potential sources of resistance. At present the Hezbollah remains the only Lebanese militia refusing to take part. However, Ambassador Makkawi believes that, with direct elections in the offing, the Hezbollah will be forced to join the bandwagon or else face exclusion from a government in which Muslim parties will be contending among themselves for at least half of the representation. Meanwhile, some 11,000 Palestinian fighters spread throughout the country are continuing to use Lebanon as their battlefield, while Israeli forces support the attacks upon them and other destabilizing activities carried out by Antoine Lahad's renegade South Lebanon Army. To counter such external and undermining influences, the Lebanese government is actively pursuing the liberation of all Lebanese land according to Taif guidelines. In January of this year, the army and internal security forces were deployed to the south and in the west Bekaa, extending Lebanese sovereignty to some areas adjacent to the so-called "security zone" occupied by Israel and Lahad's fifth columnists. Then, in March, the government began moving into a pivotal phase of the program to disband all militias, by meeting with Syria's Vice President Abdel Halim Khaddam to discuss the role of the 40,000 Syrian troops in Lebanon. The first high-level meeting of its kind in 10 years, it was sanctioned by a provision of the Taif Agreement which says that "the Syrian forces shall thankfully assist the forces of the legitimate Lebanese government to spread the authority of the State of Lebanon within a set period of no more than two years, beginning with the ratification of the national accord charter, election of the president of the republic, formation of the national accord cabinet, and approval of the political reforms constitutionally." Along with Israel's occupation of southern Lebanon, the Syrian military presence in Lebanon remains a major bone of contention among Lebanese. Meanwhile, the official government relationship with Syria is viewed as a political arrangement between the two countries, designed to end Lebanon's civil conflict while setting the stage for democratization, secularization and Syria's full withdrawal in the future. By utilizing Syria's military assistance in the short term, and by extending the government's sovereignty. over Lebanon in incremental stages and through its own forces, the Taif Agreement will theoretically achieve all of its objectives in the long run. If all goes according to schedule, Syrian troops will redeploy in September 1992 into the Bekaa area, at which time a joint Lebanese-Syrian military committee will determine the strength and duration of the Syrian presence in Lebanon. At this stage, success in the battle to regain Lebanon's sovereignty and restore its territorial integrity depends largely on the ability of the Lebanese to hold onto their faith in the Taif agreement. Their patience is being tried both by the Syrian presence and the implementation of reforms which do away with Christian political hegemony. While many Christians wistfully reminisce about the days when the mountains of Lebanon had a pervading European or "Phoenician" air, the Taif Agreement describes Lebanon as "Arab in belonging and identity." The key reform increased the size of the Chamber of Deputies (Parliament) from 99 to 108 members while dividing seats equally between Christians and Muslims, thereby doing away with the 6:5 status quo established with the National Pact of 1943. The current "interim period, " which will serve as a prelude to direct elections, was fully launched in December, when the seats of the Chamber were divided proportionately between the denominations of each sect and district. Direct elections on a national and secular basis are planned for Lebanon once Parliament passes an election law free from sectarian restriction. Ambassador Clovis Maksoud, the former representative of the League of Arab States to the United Nations, believes this will be done within "a two- to three-year time frame if the United Nations energizes itself in bringing about the implementation of Security Council Resolutions 425 and 508. " While law and order are being restored, however, direct elections will be relegated to a back burner, as arrangements continue for simultaneous or sequential withdrawal of Syrian troops from the Bekaa and Israeli troops from southern Lebanon. In the meantime, remaining empty seats in the Chamber of Deputies will be filled by appointment, giving the Deputies the power to enact laws at a later stage. In the near future, a committee comprising former presidents (all Maronites), former prime ministers (all Sunnis), and other Lebanese notables will be set up to study the electoral law proposed. Then, once the new non-sectarian electoral law is adopted by Parliament, a new Parliament will be elected. Makkawi explains that the goal is to create the equivalent of the Senate and House of Representatives in the US Congress. Although the majority of deputies elected could belong to one religious community or another, they would be balanced by the formation of a political body similar to the Senate, in which all religious bodies would be equally represented.
A Dramatic ShiftGiven Lebanon's large Muslim population, national and non-sectarian parliamentary elections could bring about a dramatic shift in the country's traditional balance of power, with the election of a Muslim president a distinct possibility. Ambassador Maksoud, a Lebanese Christian, says that if a majority leads to the election of a non-Maronite president, many Christians, including himself, "won't mind at all." In any case, he believes a reunified Lebanon would elect a Maronite president in the foreseeable future, despite a Shi'i majority. "There is a basic and profound understanding and sense of recognition for a Lebanon with a substantial Christian presence, which has meaning not only from the Lebanese themselves but for the Arabs and Muslim world, " he explains. According to Makkawi, the election of a Muslim president depends on the formation of a coalition between the Shi'i and Sunni populations. Alone, he says, neither has the potential to command a majority vote, and, to regain its place in the Arab world, the Second Lebanese Republic must be built upon compromise. Former Lebanese Ambassador to the United Nations Ghassan Tueni also endorses direct elections for Lebanon. In a letter to The Washington Post in March, he wrote, "Free elections in Lebanon are feasible, necessary and the beginning of any democratic solution that will enhance peace and stability in both Lebanon and the region."
The Role of SyriaStill, the role of Syria in implementing it casts a cloud over the Taif Agreement for many Lebanese. Oneshopkeeper who reluctantly fled Beirut to rebuild his life on Brooklyn's Atlantic Avenue laments that "Beirut may be reunited, but at the expense of Hafez Al-Assad eating the rest of Lebanon. " Lebanese officials, however, are the first to disagree. They cite Syria's demonstrated commitment to implementing the Agreement on schedule. Such accusations, they say, are a pretext to undo the Agreement that offers Lebanon's best, and perhaps only, hope of emerging from its 16-year ordeal as one united country. The Lebanese government position is that Syrian involvement in Lebanese internal affairs has two distinct phases. In the current first phase, Syrian troops provide Lebanese army and internal security forces needed leverage to restore Lebanese sovereignty and national integrity. Then, as spelled out in the Agreement, Syrian forces will serve a defensive, strategic function in Lebanon until September 1992, at which time they will redeploy to the Bekaa. Once Israeli forces withdraw from Lebanese territory in compliance with UN Security Council Resolution 425, Syrian forces also will withdraw. The success of the Taif Agreement then, depends greatly on the Security Council's sincerity and tenacity in getting Israeli troops out of the country, a step which would place the ball squarely in the Syrian court. According to the Lebanese ambassador, the Security Council has demonstrated its clout in liberating Kuwait, and must rise to meet the demands of the new world order by applying the same yardstick of international justice in Lebanon. If this optimistic scenario continues on schedule, the world will have to find a new adjective to describe the problem both the Soviet Union and Iraq face at present. The term "Lebanonization" may well drop from the political glossary. In fact, as the Lebanese look beyond their borders to the destruction and havoc wreaked on the once-thriving oil producing regions of the Gulf, they have a grim reminder that, in an age of long-range missiles and smart bombs, myopic politics and vain leaders may be a luxury they no longer can afford. Susan Smith is a free-lance journalist based in New York City. She has studied at the University of London and Tel Aviv University and holds a master's diploma from the American University in Cairo. SIDEBAR
Composition of the Lebanese Government (formed in December 1990)Omar Karame President of the Council of Ministers Michel Al-Murr Vice President of the Council of Ministers and National Defense
Minister Nazih Blzri Minister of State Khatchik Babiklan Minister of Justice Jamil Kebbe Minister of Health and Social Affairs Michel Sassine Minister of Works Georges Saade Minister of Telecommunications Ali Al-Khalil Minister of Finance Boutros Harb Minister of National Education and Fine Arts Mohamad Youssef Beydoun Minister of Hydraulic and Electric Resources Marwan Hamade Minister of Economics and Commerce Nabih Berri Minister of State Walid Jumblatt Minister of State Albert Mansour Minister of Information Mohsen Dalloul Minister of Agriculture Zaher Khatib Minister of State for Administrative Reform Nadirn Salem Minister of Public Works and Transportation Mohamad Jaroudi Minister of Industry and Petroleum Gen. d'Etat Mal. Sami Khatib Minister of the Interior Chawki Fakhourl Minister of State for Ground, Sea and Air Transportation Nicholas Al-Khoury Minister of State Agop Jokhaderian Minister of State for Environmental Affairs Abdallah Al-Amin Minister of State Assaad Harclan Minister of State Mohamad Beydoun Minister of Housing Fares Bouelz Minister of Foreign Affairs Roger Deeb Minister of State Elie Hobeika Minister of State Suleiman Tony Frangleh Minister of State Emir Talal Arslan Minister of Tourism |