Beginning of a New Era Or Beginning of the End?

By M. M. Ali

India is not just a country, but a continent. These past 44 years the government in Delhi, with the help of the Congress party, has held together more than 800 million people speaking a multitude of languages, espousing strong and divergent religious affiliations, and entertaining provincial and regional loyalties. However, the Congress has fractured and the government has weakened in recent years.

Nor did the last general election, or the two resulting coalition governments, produce political stability. No single party appears to have caught national attention and support. The elections in late May, therefore, have disturbing implications.

James Clad of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace observed in The Washington Post: "The upheaval in India is every bit as profound as the Soviet Union's disintegration, and seems certain to alter the future course of events in the country in unsettling ways. " Others describe the present Indian phase as the real beginning of a new era, or as a final phase of a brief period of democratic experiment.

A Slippery Slope

India may very well be on a slippery slope. How fast or far it slides, only time and a few more elections will tell. However, two elections in quick succession are only eroding the political system and accelerating the national crisis. India's vast size, which has been its best insurance against paralyzing destabilization, may become its undoing if the slide cannot be halted.

Historically, India has been a geographical entity, but politically diverse. Optimistic friends remind me that the present "unrest" and "instability" are mere symptoms of heterogeneous elements interacting within an encompassing homogeneity. That the current pulls away from the center and toward the circumference, they assure me, is just a feature of a continuous synthesizing process. Skeptics, however, warn that we are witnessing the fraying of the cords that have held the system together. Somewhere between these two views the truth may lie.

India in the '90s presents an unnerving spectacle. The absence of the leadership that held together huge segments of this multifaceted society creates uncertainty and polarization. No one at the helm seems to possess the foresight and forbearance of a Gandhi or the charisma and stature of a Nehru. Consequently, leaders with local or, at best, regional agendas are out wooing poor and illiterate voters in a muddied political circus.

The Indian National Congress, which not too long ago held the key to political success, is now reduced to seeking unholy alliances just to keep itself alive and competitive. Rajiv Gandhi, desperately seeking to resuscitate the Congress party apparatus without a tangible focus or agenda, finds himself pressed from the left and the right. The Bofors arms purchase scandal that rocked his last administration is still an issue to be reckoned with.

More than 520 million people will be called upon to vote in May.

With the failures abroad of their external gods, left-wing parties are searching for a platform to stir popular interest beyond their traditional strongholds in the provinces of West Bengal and Kerala. If Jyoti Basu and Namboodripad win more than the 50 parliamentary seats they gained in the last elections, that would be a big victory.

V. P. Singh, who maybe described as the man in the middle of the left, could enlarge his Janata Dal by befriending the Harijans (the "untouchables"), the deprived classes, and minorities like the Muslims. Singh's rival, caretaker Prime Minister Chandra Shekar, who burned his fingers by shaking hands with Rajiv Gandhi, may find it very difficult to work out a respectable niche for his Janata Dal (S) dissidents.

The fireworks in the elections will likely be supplied by right-wing parties that have assembled under the banner of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). BJP, led by Advani, Vajpayee and Joshi, will inevitably rekindle the Ayodhya issue (a Hindu temple vs. a Muslim mosque on the same site in the largest province of Uttar Pradesh) to capitalize on Hindu susceptibilities. Political unrest in Assam and Sikh militancy in Punjab can produce further surprises. The election in India also is bound to further heat up separatist fever in Jammu and Kashmir, a disputed state.

More than 520 million people will be called upon to vote in May. If the whole exercise produces another hung Parliament as happened last time, the country will again be in for demoralizing political trading. Such political splintering only weakens the democratic institutions, possibly beyond repair.

Democracy Still a Luxury

Democracy, though the best political system that humankind has been able to produce, is still a luxury that must be sustained by numerous supportive institutions and assumptions. Each piece has to balance with the other to create a delicate equilibrium, particularly in the early formative phase. Mindless abuse of the system can disturb the consensus that takes years of experience and care to achieve.

The prime minister is the real executive in a parliamentary system. A president or a queen is merely a ceremonial head. But the constitution and tradition bestow authority on the ceremonial head to be exercised only in times of crisis or national emergencies. Repeated invitations to a ceremonial head to use discretion in the formation of government can imperceptibly pass power from the premier to the president, and thereby destabilize a democratic equation. India runs such a risk today.

Additionally, political democracy places policy formulation and decision-making in the hands of the elected representatives. The civil service and the military are the administrative functionaries that carry out the executive orders. Repeated requests to the army to quash civil unrest undermine the authority of the political institutions, and are likely to germinate political ambitions among the men in uniform.

The election in India could have four outcomes: the current polarization could strengthen regionalism; or the Congress could put back together its fractured parts and pieces and provide a national platform; or the middle-of-the-road and left-wing parties could bury the hatchet by making ideological adjustments and produce a secular and less confrontational economic agenda; or, finally, resurgent right-wing religious parties could make further gains and push for the Hinduvta (land of the Hindus).

These are not just possibilities or independent options. Any one, any combination thereof, or all of the above can come about. For definitive answers, India may have to wait for more electoral rounds. Chandra Shekar has undermined the grand plans of Rajiv, the national strategy of Raja (Singh) and the elaborate schemes of Advani by his sudden resignation. Between now and the elections, they all can only scramble.

M. M. Ali is a professor at the University of the District of Columbia.