Senators Propose Middle East Arms Moratorium While Israel Is Still Ahead

By Dennis J. Wamsted

Five senior House Democrats wrote President Bush last month urging him to halt—at least temporarily—all US arms sales to the Middle East. The letter, drafted by Rep. Richard Gephardt (D-MO), the House majority leader, calls on Bush to use this "unilateral pause" to begin negotiating a comprehensive and enforceable multilateral agreement to curb arms sales to the region.

In addition to Gephardt, the letter was signed by Reps. Lee Hamilton (D-IN), the chairman of the Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Europe and the Middle East, Dante Fascell (D-FL), the chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee, David Obey (D-WI), the chairman of the Appropriations Foreign Operations Subcommittee, and Sam Gedjenson (D-CT), the chairman of the Foreign Affairs International Economic Policy and Trade Subcommittee.

The five argued that sales to countries in the Middle East and Persian Gulf, accounting for roughly 33 percent of all international arms transfers, "help promote an arms race and raise tensions in a region characterized by instability." Further, the five wrote, this arms race "is absorbing resources badly needed for regional economic development."

Leading The Chorus

Even before this, Sen. Joseph Biden (DDE), the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations European Affairs subcommittee, had called for the creation of a supplier group, including the five members of the UN Security Council—the US, USSR, China, France and the United Kingdom—and several other major arms suppliers, to monitor and control arms sales to the Mideast.

The goal of this cartel would be to prevent countries in the region from securing the technology "needed to build or deploy offensive ballistic missiles, chemical weapons, biological weapons and nuclear weapons," Biden told his Senate colleagues in a floor statement in March. "This supplier's cartel must also control the proliferation of advanced conventional arms," he continued, calling for the convening of a conference to establish these new controls.

Although far from fruition, Biden held a hearing on his proposal in April and began drafting language to create the supplier group. Similar legislation is being supported in the House by Rep. Mel Levine (D-CA).

Administration Action

While President Bush is on record as opposing a moratorium on conventional arms sales to the Middle East, the congressional initiatives apparently had an impact. According to a report in The Washington Post, the administration is planning to propose an arms control initiative for the Middle East this month that will include a ban on the sale of ballistic missiles with ranges greater than 90 miles. The proposal will also reportedly call for greater reliance on supplier groups, as proposed by Biden and Levine.

The Impact

Exactly what, if any, action Congress and the administration will take on this issue remains uncertain at this point. However, it is almost certainly true that future arms sales will be scrutinized even more closely than past sales, which were difficult proposals in their own right.

The proposed moratoria, if enacted, would have the effect of solidifying Israel's existing qualitative military superiority.

For example, Biden's proposed ban on the sale of nuclear technology to the region ignores the fact that Israel already possesses a large nuclear weapons research and development facility and, in all likelihood, nuclear weapons. Similarly, Israel already possesses ballistic missiles with ranges of more than 1,000 miles, which could undercut the administration's proposed ban.

Undoubtedly with this in mind, Moshe Arens, Israel's defense minister, and Thomas Dine, the executive director of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), Washington's principal pro-Israel lobby, have recently voiced support for a regional arms sales moratorium.

Still, to date, the uproar has had little practical effect. A $1.6 billion sale to Egypt, including 46 F-16 jet fighters, was not challenged by Congress when it was proposed in late February, and has now gone into effect. Several smaller sales to other countries in the region, particularly the Gulf countries, are also expected in the coming months.

The question that remains, however, is what will happen to the second part of the' huge sale proposed for Saudi Arabia last fall. Much discussed, this sale is now said to be under review by administration officials. Other sources say that the sale has been delayed partly at Saudi request, because of cash flow problems and the need to pay the roughly $10.7 billion the country still owes the US for the Desert Storm operation.

Ban on Aid to Jordan Eased

In an interesting turn during consideration of the supplemental funding measure for the current fiscal year, passed by Congress in late March, a proposal sponsored by Sens. Don Nickles (R-OK) and Dennis DeConcini (D-AZ) that would have barred all current and previously approved but unspent aid to Jordan was withdrawn at the last minute under pressure from the administration. In its place, Nickles and DeConcini substituted a weaker proposal restricting aid to Jordan in fiscal 1991, but allowing the president to deliver the aid provided he determines it is in America's best interests.

"Ostracizing Jordan with punitive measures of this sort can only hinder the peace process... "

The original Nickles-DeConcini proposal would have slashed roughly $300 million in aid for Jordan approved by the US over the past several years. However, strong opposition from the administration and several senators convinced the two to offer a substitute; their action effectively begins what is certain to be a long climb back into favor for Jordan's King Hussein, who sided with Iraq during the Gulf war.

While noting their unease and unhappiness with King Hussein's policies during the past several months, a number of senators cautioned against rash action against the kingdom. For example, while criticizing King Hussein for siding with Iraq, Sen. Dave Durenberger (R-MN) added: "In recent decades, Jordan has played a key role in the Middle East, and I expect that that will continue in the future ... Ostracizing Jordan with punitive measures of this sort can only hinder the peace process...

"Cutting off aid to Jordan in this manner may satisfy the immediate desire to punish Jordan—and let there be no doubt that this is a punitive measure—but we must take the long-term view," the Minnesota Republican said.

It will be many months, perhaps years, before Jordan is back in favor inside the halls of Capitol Hill, but this little-noticed debate probably indicates that the rehabilitation process has already begun.

Dennis J. Wamsted is a free-lance writer specializing in the Congress and Middle East affairs.