Currents of Political Liberalization Flowing in Arab World, Too

By Michael Collins Dunn

Some commentators have argued that the democratic changes sweeping Eastern Europe and making themselves felt from Mongolia to Nicaragua have not been felt in the Arab world. No Berlin Walls have fallen, no Ceausescus have been shot by firing squad, but from the Atlantic to the Gulf there are signs of new political openness, multipartyism, a freer press and demands for more. There is definitely a wave of change building in the Arab world.

Single Party Strength

Historically, even those Arab countries which had formal multiparty systems have tended to be dominated by a single party, with the smaller parties essentially limited to providing constructive criticism. This was true of Egypt before the 1952 revolution and again of Egypt since the restoration of a multiparty system in the 1970s. Although the ruling party wins elections comfortably, the opposition is vocal, and its press surprisingly free and sometimes outrageous. It can even bring down a government official, as when al-Sha'b published tapes of Interior Minister Zaki Badr threatening to arrest a wide range of Egyptian leaders.

In Tunisia, a similar situation has prevailed. Although since Habib Bourguiba's departure in 1987 there has been a great liberalization of the political system, in the 1988 elections the ruling party won all the seats. Recently it has offered some concessions, changing the electoral system to encourage opposition victories in local elections. The opposition, however, wants new national parliamentary elections. And the single most powerful opposition force, the Islamic Nahda movement, is still barred from formal party activities.

In Morocco, there has been a long tradition of party life and party newspapers, but the parties have always been basically supportive of the monarchy and have little real power. There have been efforts to shift the balance a bit, however, and give more genuine power to the mulitparty parliament.

Algeria has been the real surprise in North Africa. Until 1988, the ruling National Liberation Front (FLN) saw itself as a genuine revolutionary party which claimed to represent all elements of society. That claim was shattered in October 1988 by attacks on party offices and violent riots throughout the country. Since then, dozens of political parties have come into existence. Many of them represent small factions but others, such as the only currently fully legal Islamic party in the Arab world, have a great deal of support. The press has also become vigorous and pluralist.

Multiparty Traditions

Sudan, with a history of vigorous multiparty competition is one Arab country where the tide has been flowing the other way. Last year a civilian, multiparty government in Sudan was overthrown by the military. But the new military rulers seem uncertain and insecure.

Another country with a tradition of democratic multipartyism is Lebanon, though its "parties" have always been communal, religious, or even family/feudal in their orientation. Despite the incredible impediments created by the civil war and the factions within society, parliament managed to meet twice last year and constitutionally elect two presidents, Rene Muawwad and, after his assassination, Elias Hrawi.

In Jordan, where parties had been banned for more than 20 years, withdrawal of Jordan's claim to the West Bank made it feasible to hold new parliamentary elections. The Parliament elected last year includes abroad mix of nationalists, leftists and Islamic revivalists. The strong showing by the Muslim Brotherhood captured international media attention, but in Jordan the Brotherhood has long supported the monarchy. The government is now moving to allow the restoration of political parties, which are already functioning in all but name.

Iraq is seeking to open up the National Assembly to greater pluralism. The new constitution, due to see the light of day later this year, is expected to call for a multiparty system and a free press, though what restrictions there may be on these, and on who can participate in political life, remains to be seen.

Saudi Arabia and the other states of the Gulf have long observed the tradition of the majlis, in which a ruler meets regularly with any of his subjects who wish to bring complaints to him, and to the tribal tradition of shura, or group consultation, which results in government by consensus rather than by individual fiat. The Arab states of the Gulf contend, therefore, that they have successfully functioning democratic systems, far better adapted to Arab and Islamic traditions than Western parliamentary formulas.

Kuwait, however, also has a tradition of parliamentarianism dating back to the 1920s. In recent years, ironically, the history of Kuwaiti parliaments has been regularly punctuated by their dissolution, when an Amir tired of endless debates or harsh criticisms.

Freedom of expression has been growing apace.

Last December, with the events in Eastern Europe drawing so much attention, a number of former Kuwaiti parliamentarians and local leaders began holding political discussions at their own homes. Kuwaiti authorities soon found that crackdowns merely spurred more protests. In March, the Crown Prince and Prime Minister, Sheikh Sa'ad al-'Abdullah, indicated that he had concluded that Kuwaitis wanted a return to an elected parliament this year. At this writing the ruling family is still discussing new "regulations and criteria," but the return of some sort of parliament in Kuwait now seems nearly certain.

Elsewhere in the Arabian Peninsula, both Yemens are seeking political liberalization and unification. North Yemen held elections in 1988 for an Assembly which, while parties per se were banned, saw the emergence of interest groups representing Islamic, Arab nationalist and other movements. Marxist South Yemen has committed itself to a shift to a multipartty system. Skeptics may say that it is simply reacting to cutbacks in Soviet aid, but it is also opening up its economy to foreign investment and seems to be embarking on a real period of change.

Changes in the Arab world have not been as dramatic as those in Eastern Europe, because few of the existing regimes are totalitarian or so oppressive that change seemed impossible. But single-party systems are giving way to multi-party systems and the press is proving more vigorous throughout much of the region. Democratic expression creates the necessary climate for a change to democratic institutions, and freedom of expression has been growing apace. Those who say that the waves of democracy have not reached the Middle East have not been paying attention.

Michael Collins Dunn, Ph.D. is senior analyst with The International Estimate, Inc., a Washington consultancy, and Middle East editor of its biweekly newsletter, The Estimate.