Should the PLO Talk With Shamir?

By Jerome Segal

Should Prime Minister Shamir negotiate with the PLO? The question has an obvious answer. Israel cannot have peace and security unless it reaches a settlement with the Palestinians. The PLO is the clear national representative of the Palestinian people. Only the PLO can bind the Palestinians.

The question also has a complex answer. The PLO and the Palestinian people are striving to bring the state of Palestine into existence. No settlement of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict can be reached unless it carries with it the acceptance of a Palestinian state. The continued frustration of Palestinian nationalism is a recipe for future wars. Thus, there is an even more appropriate partner for Shamir than the PLO: the provisional government of the state of Palestine.

It is not the Shamir government which will make peace. It is the next government after Shamir, or even the one after that.

Yasser Arafat has already been named as president of the state of Palestine. Over 100 countries have already recognized the new state. The new state should name its ambassador to Israel and send him off to Jerusalem on a mission of peace. If Shamir is interested in peace, he should welcome the Palestinian ambassador and arrange for face-to-face negotiations.

Fantasy? Unfortunately, yes. Shamir's basic objective is to prevent a Palestinian state from coming into being. To accomplish that objective, he seeks to end the intifadah. His opposition to negotiating with the PLO is rooted in his knowledge that it will not be possible to reach an agreement with the PLO which falls short of a Palestinian state.

Negotiations are not a panacea. It is often thought, "if only negotiations can be started, the process would be transformative. Even if the parties are far apart, perhaps negotiations will bring them closer together." The issues to be negotiated: statehood, boundaries, demilitarization, the right of return, Jerusalem, water rights, etc., are so complex that even with the best will in the world, negotiations are apt to break down.

Where do events go from there? Quite possibly a negotiations deadlock will result in much more violent and desperate efforts to end the occupation and the intifadah. In the end it will be a disaster for all involved.

Israel needs to undergo deep political transformation. The Palestinians have just begun their effort to bring that transformation about. Their peace initiative should focus on the average Israeli, not the Shamir government. On the one hand, the Palestinians should expand their contact with the peace camp, and they must continue to speak to Israeli fears. But, at the same time, they should continue their efforts to bring the Palestinian state into being through the establishment of a provisional government; the development of a governmental infrastructure within the territories, and the issuing of passports, stamps, and a national currency.

When Israelis begin to perceive that a Palestinian state is coming into existence without their permission and that it is deeply committed to living at peace with Israel, then the time will be ripe for negotiations.

It is not the Shamir government which will make peace. It is the next government after Shamir, or even the one after that. Thus, perhaps rather than asking "Should Shamir negotiate with the PLO?," we should ask a different question: "Should the PLO negotiate with Shamir?"

Jerome M. Segal is a Research Scholar at the Institute for Philosophy and Public Policy, University of Maryland. He is author of Creating the Palestinian State—A Strategy for Peace (Lawrence Hill Books), available through AET