Washington Report, May 3, 1982, Page 3

Camp David: The Gap Widens

Sinai had hardly been returned to Egyptian hands on April 25 before more evidence began piling in of the ever-widening chasm which continues to separate Egyptian and Israeli positions on the future of the second part of the Camp David 11 peace process"; granting "full autonomy" to the West Bank Palestinians.

During the hours following the withdrawal of their troops, Israeli leaders went on record with these statements:

"You cannot annex your own country. Judea and Samaria are part of the land of Israel, where the nation was born." (Prime Minister Menachem Begin, in answer to a question on whether Israel would annex the West Bank-i.e., "Judea and Samaria").

"In Sinai, in Yamit, we have reached the limits of our concessions. We shall turn to strengthening our security, to our development in every sphere. We shall turn to increasing and consolidating our settlements on the Golan Heights, in Judea, Samaria and the Gaza Di strict- settlements that are ... a true basis for political plans." (Defense Minister Ariel Sharon).

Egyptian leaders, on the other hand, were emphasizing that the withdrawal "is an important step towards a comprehensive peace" (President Hosni Mubarak) and also expressing the hope that talks on "full autonomy" for the West Bank would achieve "progress that would bring other parties into the peace process" (Foreign Minister Kamal Hassan Ali).

The U.S. kept an officially upbeat tone. President Reagan, in an official White House statement after the withdrawal, said that autonomy for the Palestinians "will not be an easy task, but with the example of Egypt and Israel before us, it can be achieved." At the same time, U.S. officials are said to be drawing up plans for an early resumption of the long-stalled talks, possibly in Washington.

How good are the chances for success on Camp David's second stage? Hardly any knowledgeable observers are giving the prospects more than a ghost of a chance. Here are some of the reasons for the murky outlook:

• Israel made it plain long ago that it does not intend to broaden in any meaningful way its definition of "full autonomy," according to which the Palestinians would neither have the right to exercise any legislative powers, nor have any authority over security, land ownership or water rights. The Israelis call it "autonomy for the people, but not for the land." For Palestinians, in the words of one of them, it means "we will be allowed to collect our own garbage."

• The Palestinians have refused to be a party to the talks from the beginning, because in their view even "successful" autonomy talks would be a failure-since they would fall far short of Palestinian aspirations. The Palestinians do not want autonomy; they want their own state, just as the Israelis have. Although Camp David allows the Palestinians to negotiate the "final status" of their territories during a five-year period once the structure for local autonomy has been set up, Prime Minister Begin has already said in advance, repeatedly, that the occupied territories will remain permanently under Israeli sovereignty. With Israel able to back up its claim with armed soldiers on the ground, the Palestinians' claim to sovereignty during a negotiating process would hardly have equal weight. In any case, the Palestinians look around them and see that Israel has come very close to establishing its de facto sovereignty already (see The Washington Report of April 5, 1982).

• Egypt will find it politically impossible to agree to an autonomy structure which would give the Palestinians so much less than they would be prepared to accept. The Mubarak regime wants to take over a leadership role in the Arab world once again, and needs to overcome any suspicion that it is willing to sell out the Palestinians. As a last-minute concession to Israel, made under pressure to ensure that Israel would not renege on its Sinai withdrawal, Egypt had to re-commit itself, in writing, to pursuing the autonomy talks. But that doesn't mean it has committed itself in advance to agreeing to autonomy proposals which it finds unacceptable.