First Round of Iranian Elections Indecisive in Conservative-Reformist Struggle

by Colin Barraclough

Winter came late to Tehran this year. On March 8, election day, patches of snow still dappled the city's streets and the white-powdered Alborz mountains, dominating the northern skyline, cast a wintry atmosphere on the capital. But although the late snow had brought a chill to Tehran, a furious debate within political and intellectual circles had become more heated than at any time since Iran's 1978-79 Islamic Revolution.

In the run-up to the election for a new 270-seat Majlis, or parliament, amid an unholy jostling for power among the country's Islamist leaders, Tehran came alive with political intrigue and gossip. It set old-style Islamist hard-liners known as the Association of Militant Clergy, led by incumbent Parliamentary Speaker Ayatollah Ali Akbar Nateq Nouri, against a group of economic reformists and technocrats known as the G-6 group, backed by President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani. Middle-class Iranians speculate that they are seeing early signs of a fundamental change within the ruling elite.

"There is an open debate now, especially in the universities and the newspapers," said Ali Reza, a political science student at the University of Tehran. "Political factions are being identified in the press and there's a lot more openness in the debate. In the Shah's time, no one wanted to talk about politics; it was too dangerous. Now, no one can talk of anything else."

Newspapers have criticized government policy. Weekly magazines distributed among the country's intellectuals have covered subjects ranging from the separation of mosque and state to alleged corruption among members of President Rafsanjani's family. Rival politicians, who had only one week to campaign, decorated the streets of Tehran with multicolored posters and banners to get their messages across to the electorate.

Over the past two years, reformist administrators such as the pragmatic mayor of Tehran, Gholam Hossein Karbaschi, have assumed a wider role at the expense of Islamic theologians who had directed much of Iran's domestic economic and social policy. Backed by President Rafsanjani, the reformists have begun to place sound economics above religious ideology in strategic decisions. Iran's attempts to develop trade links with Central Asia, its willingness to accept major foreign investment in its oil sector, and its prospective bid to join the World Trade Organization all point to a new pragmatism in Tehran.

But economic reforms such as a reduction in the gasoline subsidy and an experiment with a floating exchange rate have also sent inflation soaring to more than 50 percent a year. As Iranians went to the polls, they had to decide between the reformists, whose free-market policies entail higher prices as well as a more liberal social code, or the ruling clique of conservatives who cling to the strict line of Ayatollah Khomeini, whose authoritarian rule lasted from 1979 until his death in 1989.

Most Iranian and foreign analysts agree that the results of the current elections are genuinely unpredictable. "Rafsanjani's a liberal man and he's opening up the country, but his reforms have cost a lot," said an official from the Ministry of Islamic Guidance. "Karbaschi has changed the city, but at what cost? House prices have tripled with all his new taxes. The poor don't like him. At the same time, they don't like the Militant Clergy. It's difficult to see how the vote will go."

Early results proved inconclusive. Fewer than one-third of the 270 seats were settled through the first round of voting on March 8. Most will go on to a second round run-off vote on April 19. Both conservatives and reformists have declared themselves the dominant group based on first-round results.

The composition of the Majlis is important because it can hinder the president's policies, particularly on economic issues. President Rafsanjani, for instance, had considerable trouble getting some of his reform legislation and budgets through the last parliament. The Majlis also must approve cabinet appointments and has the powerand has used itto impeach ministers. Its speaker has considerable clout, with a seat on all the main councils of state.

Because of this, the parliament will serve as a springboard for next year's presidential election, when President Rafsanjani, having served two successive terms, must step down. If the conservatives are dominant in the new Majlis, Nateq Nouri will be speaker again. He will then have a good chance of mustering enough support to win the presidency.

A victory for the Rafsanjani-backed reformists could usher in a liberal new era in Iran, but foreign observers caution that even a parliamentary victory by moderates will not change the country overnight. "Parliament is only one arm of government," said one senior diplomat in Tehran. "In broad terms, Western governments want Rafsanjani's people to win, but you have to remember that even Rafsanjani is not a true moderate. He's not the sort of person who's suddenly going to embrace the Middle East peace process."

Others warn that the ruling authorities have not allowed candidates to challenge the Islamic system. Even liberal opposition groups such as the nationalist Freedom Movement of Iran have been prevented from campaigning. "People will not be voting for or against the Islamic Republic," said a European ambassador. "They'll be voting for nuances and personalities within the present system."

Nonetheless, progressive Iranians were encouraged by the debate itself. "There is a growing trend toward liberalization now," said Said Leylaz, a prominent television and newspaper reporter. "It's an uncertain path and problems are bound to arise at first. But technology and education are changing people so fast in Iran that there have to be political changes to match. Iran is at a turning point."

Intellectuals still are not allowed to challenge Iran's system of Islamic government, but they have begun to debate its nature. Students talk about democratic reform and discuss Karl Popper's theories of the open society. Abdolkarim Soroush, a liberal Islamic university lecturer, tentatively suggests that mosque and state should be separated. Politicians within the ruling elite criticize the executive power of the supreme religious leader. "The whole period has been a turning point for Iran," said one long-time foreign resident. "The intellectuals have left no subject untouched."

Indeed, Iran's youthhalf of the population is under 20 may well be having a decisive impact on this year's polls.

Revolutionary rhetoric means little to people who are too young to remember the last Shah's regime. Instead, young Iranians are flocking to study English or computer skills at the scores of private institutes opening in the major cities. "Iranians are starting to demand a modern society," explained Begum, a young school teacher from Tabriz in northern Iran. "They want better consumer goods and more contact with the outside world. They want to live in a civilized country."

In the long term, the present regime will also be challenged by dropping oil earnings: productivity is low, domestic consumption is high and oil prices are flat. However, development of non-oil exports is hindered by the bazaaris, powerful monopolistic traders, who offer vital support to the Islamic regime. Iranian analysts believe that the development of a modern, diversified exporting economy would entail breaking their hold. That in turn could upset the present system.

The authorities are uncertain how to react to these new currents. They fear that an established or effective opposition, even one within the system, would be too much of a threat. No one is expecting the mullahs to disappear from politics overnight. Nateq Nouri is still considered one of the front-runners for the 1997 presidential battle but the openness of the debate is a sign of gradual evolution within the Islamic Republic. "The growth of the technocrats is an irreversible trend in Iran," said the European ambassador. "There's definitely a feeling among the Iranians that they have to run the country better if they want it to survive."