Polls Show Palestinians View Settlements as Sabotaging Peace

By Ella Bancroft

A poll by the Center for Palestine Research and Studies (CPRS) in Nablus conducted from Feb. 2 to 4 throughout the West Bank and Gaza showed strong support among Palestinians for Yasser Arafat and his mainstream Fatah movement, but deep resentment over expansion of Israeli settlements and Israeli border closings.

The poll showed that unemployment in the West Bank and Gaza had been 32 percent in early January, but nearly doubled to 57 percent when Israel closed its borders following the Jan. 21 double bomb attack at Beit Lid in which 19 Israeli soldiers and one civilian were killed.

A total of 51.4 percent of respondents looked positively at Yasser Arafat's visit to Amman to sign an agreement between the Palestinian National Authority and Jordan. By contrast, 29.7 percent of respondents thought disputes between the two parties would not end because of the agreements.

Palestinians viewed negatively Yitzhak Rabin's suggestion of permanent separation between Israelis and Palestinians, with 64.3 percent suggesting it is a form of retaliatory and vindictive collective punishment and only 15.8 percent believing that the idea of separation is the beginning of Israeli acceptance of establishment of a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza.

The number of respondents who believe that the peace process which began with the Declaration of Principles will lead to establishment of a Palestinian state reached 55.3 percent in February, compared with only 45.1 percent of respondents in September 1993. Those who currently believe the agreement will not lead to a Palestinian state were 32.6 percent. The presence of the Palestinian National Authority clearly led to greater optimism in Gaza, where 62.4 percent believe the peace process will lead to a Palestinian state. The absence of the PNA from all of the West Bank but Jericho is reflected in opinions, where only 50.8 percent reflect this optimistic assessment.

Palestinian optimism vanishes almost totally, however, when asked whether, if the Israelis continue expanding settlements, the negotiations should continue. An overwhelming 81.3 percent of respondents rejected continuing negotiations in the context of expanding settlements. This is the highest opposition to continuing negotiations recorded since immediately after the Hebron massacre in February 1994.

A plurality of Palestinians expressed support for armed operations against Israeli targets, with 46 percent supporting them, 33.5 percent opposing them, and 20.5 percent with no opinion. Support for armed operations was higher among the educated. It was markedly lower among respondents over age 50 (40.9 percent support) than among respondents aged 18 to 22 (54 percent support). Although support for armed operations comes largely from Islamic opposition factions and the leftist rejectionist PFLP, it also is found among the two groups that support Yasser Arafat, Fatah (37.7 percent support for armed operations) and Fida (33.3 percent support).

Year of Polling Finds Palestinians Support Arafat

Journalists invited on Feb. 14 to International Republican Institute (IRI) headquarters in Washington, DC were briefed on a year of CPRS public opinion polling throughout the West Bank and Gaza by Dr. Nader Izzat Sa'id, who heads the Center's survey research unit in Nablus. The organization receives financial and technical support from the IRI aimed at keeping its polls accurate and free from identification with any Palestinian party or movement.

Dr. Sa'id described how CPRS pollsters, who travel in pairs which must include at least one woman, do their interviewing in homes, choosing the person to be interviewed within each home by flips of a coin. The final poll results compiled from more than 1,000 interviews are tabulated by geographical and demographic criteria to reflect an accurate model of the Palestinian community in Gaza and the West Bank by age, sex and education as well as by town or village of residence.

The results, he said, showed a decline in support for the Declaration of Principles from a high of 65 percent in September 1993 to 40.2 percent in February 1994. Support for peace negotiations depended upon whether or not Jewish settlements continued to expand. If settlements were halted, support for negotiations was 51 percent in January 1994 and 52 percent in September 1994. If settlements continue, Palestinian support for peace negotiations was only 8 percent in March 1994 and 14 percent in February 1995.

Palestinians strongly favored democratic freedoms in areas under the control of the Palestinian National Authority, with 65 percent opposed to a PNA ban on newspapers in August 1994, and only 16 percent supporting the ban.

Support for Yasser Arafat for president of the Palestinian National Authority averaged 50 percent in polls taken in November and December 1994 and February 1995. Other averages in the same polls were Hamas leader Sheikh Ahmad Yassin, 17 percent; independent leader Dr. Haider Abdel Shafi, 9.5 percent; PFLP leader George Habash, 6.3 percent; and all others, 18.5 percent.

Fatah wins consistently in all areas except Hebron.

Support for political factions, averaged for all polls from September 1993 to December 1994, showed the same trend. Support for Yasser Arafat's Fatah averaged 41 percent; Hamas averaged 14.1 percent, and the PFLP averaged 7 percent. Other specific movements included Islamic Jihad 3.4 percent, the PPP 2.5 percent, and the DFLP and its breakaway pro-peace offshoot, Fida, at 1.5 percent each.

Asked in a November 1994 poll which group was most likely to reach a solution acceptable to the Palestinian cause, 50 percent chose the PLO, 39 percent chose Islamic groups, 5 percent chose Jordan and 6 percent chose others.

Summarizing a year of polling, Dr. Sa'id said that the mainstream support camp, or Fatah alone, wins consistently in all areas except Hebron, where a coalition of Islamic groups may be stonger. Support for negotiations is higher than for the DOP per se. Support for Fatah has not dropped among the most vocal and most political groups. Support for the peace camp is lower among students, however, who are about evenly divided between 38 percent supporting pro-negotiation groups, 39 percent supporting opposition groups, and 23 percent undecided.

Refuting Western stereotypes, a large part of the support for Hamas and Islamic Jihad is among women, Dr. Sa'id said. This is because of the community support and social services the Islamic networks provide.

Israelis Pessimistic in Wake of Beit Lid Bombing

A poll of Israelis published Feb. 3 in the daily Yediot Ahronot showed that if a general election were held then, Likud opposition leader Benyamin Netanyahu would garner 52 percent of the popular votes, compared with 38 percent for incumbent Labor Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin. The poll, held immediately after the Beit Lid bombing, showed Labor would win 39 seats in the 100-seat Knesset, down 5 from the June 1992 elections which brought it to power; Likud would jump from 32 to 41 seats; the left-wing, pro-peace Meretz party would sink from 12 to 9 deputies; and other parties would remain roughly the same.

Commenting on diminishing Israeli support both for the Rabin government and for the peace process, Meretz party Knesset Member Dedi Zucker told The Washington Post: "Once the breakthrough happened (on Sept. 13, 1993) I thought the main thing had been decided. It would take more time or less time, more casualties or less casualties, but once two nations had recognized each other, that was it. The rest was technicalities. And then I found out that it is probably a severe mistake to think like that."

Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister Yossi Beilin told Washington Post correspondent Barton Gellman that neither Israeli nor Palestinian leaders were able to deliver on the agreement they had signed because they were caught between "terrorist activities on the one hand...and on the other hand settlers who every day put another [mobile home] on another hill" in the occupied territories they have no intention of leaving.

The Israeli government's decision to defy Egypt's demand that it sign the nuclear non-proliferation treaty as a condition for Egypt doing so received strong backing among Israeli citizens according to a Dahaf poll published in Yediot Ahronot newspaper Feb. 24. Of 501 Israelis surveyed Feb. 19 and 20, 71 percent said Israel should not give in, 23 percent said it should, and 6 percent did not respond.

In Egypt, a Dec. 29 poll by the English-language Al-Ahram weekly newspaper showed that 71 percent of Egyptians would not buy Israeli goods versus 26 percent who would; 63 percent said they have no desire to visit Israel versus 36 percent who would; and 53 percent don't want Israelis visiting Egypt, versus 43 percent who favor Israeli visits. Asked if the Middle East peace process had allowed Palestinians to regain their rights, 59 percent said no, 36 percent said yes, and 16 percent had no opinion.

Asked about their own situation, 50 percent of Egyptians said they would vote in the next Egyptian elections, 48 percent said they would not, and 40 percent said there was no political party to represent them.

An overwhelming 93 percent condemned violence in Egypt by militants, saying it was not to the people's benefit, while only 4 percent said it was. By contrast, 67 percent said non-violent Islamic groups were working for the good of the people, with 19 percent believing the contrary, and 14 percent undecided.

Ella Bancroft is a free-lance writer who divides her time between the U.S. and Canada.