Egypt Signaling Independence From U.S. Mideast Policy

By Geneive Abdo

Each morning before the English-language news, a snapshot flashes across television screens in Cairo of President Hosni Mubarak wedged on a couch between Yasser Arafat and Yitzhak Rabin. A towering figure next to his diminutive comrades, Mr. Mubarak appears with his arms outstretched, his head moving from right to left in a poised position of high-level negotiation.

This is the self-portrait the Egyptian government wants to show the world. For 17 years, Egypt has played the role of peacemaker in a rough and hostile neighborhood. As a reward for this service, the United States has sent Egypt a total of $17.8 billion in military assistance and $15.7 billion in economic aid since 1975.

While acting as America's messenger and policeman in the Arab world, the Egyptian government has tried to remain within the three orbits once described by former President Gamal Abdel Nasser—the African, Arab and Islamic spheres.

It has been a difficult balancing act, and in recent months the government has demonstrated a desire to be emancipated, if only briefly, from its American patron. The government announced a few months ago it would not sign an extension of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty unless Israel, which has a substantial undeclared arsenal, also signs the accord, As the April deadline for signing draws nearer, the drumbeat against the accord grows louder.

By taking such a stand, Egypt has exposed Israel's nuclear capability, an issue Washington had been reluctant to discuss openly. While the Clinton administration has sounded a mantra against Iran's nuclear capability it has deliberately remained mum on Israel, its close ally.

The Egyptian government also has reminded its neighbors of Egypt's pivotal leadership role in the Arab world, and has pushed the anti-Israeli buttons of Arab nationalists and Islamists who have long been among Mr. Mubarak's harshest critics.

"Although it is an open secret that Israel's nuclear arsenal includes 200 nuclear devices, Washington takes advantage of Israel's silence on its nuclear capacity to act as though the weapons do not exist," wrote Mohammed Sid-Ahmed, one of Egypt's leading political analysts. "Many attribute Washington's attitude to a belief that Israel has a 'moral right' to maintain a nuclear arsenal as a guarantee for survival," he said.

Mr. Mubarak has defended Egypt's position and repeatedly has made the point that the nuclear issue is a matter of security. "If we give in to these forces, the results will be grave indeed. Violence and terrorism will escalate and the peace process will have a bad end," Mr. Mubarak said.

However, even as the president has proclaimed Egypt's refusal to sign the treaty unless Israel does as well, he has stopped short of publicly calling upon the Arab world to join the boycott. Such a leap would clearly antagonize the United States, and this is a line Mr. Mubarak is unwilling to cross.

When asked if Egypt was encouraging Arab states to refuse to sign, Mr. Mubarak replied in a recent interview in the London-based magazine Al-Hawadeth: "We do not interfere in the affairs of Arab states. Each state should do what it deems right. I am not using this issue to establish a caucus."

Washington pundits have interpreted Egypt's position as part of a scheme to cling to its role as a key player now that the peace process appears irreversible, despite major pitfalls. Egyptian officials vehemently reject this analysis, perhaps because the peace process seems to be foundering as viewed from the Middle East.

Whether by accident or design, the government's stance reflects growing anti-American, anti-Israeli public opinion in the country. The Egyptian-Israeli peace agreement signed at Camp David in 1979 ended the state of war between the two countries. But the "cold peace" never developed into real economic and cultural cooperation.

A reluctance to normalize relations with Israel is a point upon which both Islamists and secularists in the society agree. Egyptian writers, artists and intellectuals have never cozied up to their Jewish neighbor. Books by Israeli authors were banned from Egypt's international book fair earlier this year, and Israeli films were excluded from the Cairo film festival in December.

Bellydancers reportedly offered up to $100,000 to perform in Israeli nightclubs refused to take a one-hour plane ride to Tel Aviv. And a renowned playwright who published a novel about his adventures in Israel now has three bodyguards.

"We are not against peace but against Israeli greed," said Hamdi Gheith, director of the Egyptian actors' syndicate. "Israel still clings to the Golan, which belongs to Syria, and considers Jerusalem, which has holy sites important to Arabs and Muslims, its capital.

"Only when Israel gives up all this can there be normalization of relations," he said.

A survey published in January in Al-Ahram, the leading state-run newspaper, showed profound Egyptian sentiment against normalization. Asked whether they would buy Israeli products, 71 percent of those surveyed said no. Asked whether they were in favor of Israeli citizens visiting Egypt, 53 percent said no, while 43 percent said yes and 4 percent had no opinion.

"It's a problem of stereotypes," said Emmanual Marx, director of the Israeli Academic Center in Cairo. "Egyptians think we are a society of barbarians. We don't produce literature, we have no culture and no morals. Therefore, we can't be trusted."

At the time of this writing, it appears the Egyptian government could strike a compromise with Israel over the treaty before the April deadline. Mr. Mubarak has suggested the government would accept a pledge from Israel to sign within a specified time frame.

If Mr. Mubarak signs in the end, however, some will be quick to declare defeat for Egypt and chalk up another Israeli victory. But Egypt will have made its point: To play the role of policeman and peacemaker does not mean acting as America's lapdog.

Geneive Abdo is an American journalist based in Cairo.