U.S. Public Puts Higher Priority on Middle East Than Does Clinton

By Richard H. Curtiss

(Prejudices change slowly, opinions can shift with a single event, and polls can be manipulated by their sponsors through timing, wording, respondent selection, or outright falsification. All, nevertheless, are straws in the wind, worthy of consideration by anyone interested in the meteorology of politics, or in modifying the political climate.)

Israelis on an Israeli-Syrian Peace

A public opinion poll released in the last week of February by the Jaffe Institute for Strategic Studies at Tel Aviv University found 54 percent of Israelis are willing to return parts of the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights to Syria, while 46 percent oppose any withdrawal. Of the 54 percent willing to return Golan territory, 33 percent are willing to return only a small part, and 6 percent are willing to return it all.

Reasonable conclusion: In the last week of February, Israelis were not yet ready for a realistic (total withdrawal for total peace) deal with Syria.

Israelis on Israeli-Palestinian Peace

The same February 1993 poll found 62 percent of the Israelis questioned favored returning some land to the Palestinians, and 89 percent strongly favored continuation of the peace talks.

Reasonable conclusion: In the last week of February, Israelis overwhelmingly wanted peace, but were not yet realistic about the amount of land seized in 1967 which must be returned to secure peace with the Palestinians.

Palestinians on the Peace Talks

Among Palestinians, a poll released at the end of February 1993 by the Palestinian-run Jerusalem Media and Communication Center found 84 percent of Palestinians opposed to renewing peace talks until the issue of the 400 Palestinian Muslims expelled last December from Israeli-occupied territories into Lebanon is resolved.

Reasonable conclusion: Barring return of the 400, or a pledge by the Israeli government not to resort to further expulsions, Israeli-Palestinian peace talks are derailed.

Americans on Somalia

Among 1,300 Americans polled by CBS from Dec. 7 through 9, 1992, within days of the Bush administration's decision to use its military forces to break the gridlock on delivering humanitarian relief to Somalia, 81 percent said the U.S. was doing the right thing to send troops to Somalia to make sure food gets to the people there, and 14 percent said the U.S. should have stayed out of Somalia.

Seventy percent of the same American respondents said sending troops to Somalia is worth the possible loss of American lives, financial costs and other risks, and 21 percent disagreed.

Forty-two percent of respondents said they were very concerned U.S. troops will get bogged down in Somalia's civil war; 37 percent said they were somewhat concerned; 19 percent were not concerned.

Nine percent of the respondents expected the operation to last one or two months, 33 percent expected it to last three to six months, 34 percent expected it to last six months to a year, and 16 percent expected it to last more than a year.

Reasonable conclusion: From its beginning, the American public was overwhelmingly in favor of the humanitarian effort in Somalia; more than two-thirds thought the operation worth the costs, and an overwhelming majority thought that the operation would last longer than President Bush predicted.

Americans on Middle East Peace

A poll conducted in late 1992 by the New York-based John Zogby Group for Al Wasat, an Arabic political weekly, found that 885 adult American respondents gave "finding a successful completion to the continuing peace talks in the Middle East" the highest ranking among several foreign policy questions facing the incoming Clinton administration. The same respondents gave American responsibility for "protecting its Gulf war allies in the Middle East" the second highest ranking.

Of the respondents, 61.2 percent gave the Middle East peace talks a "high priority" and 48.2 percent gave protecting Gulf war allies in the Middle East a "high priority." These figures compared with 38.6 percent who gave "high priority" to "ensuring the stability of new democracies in Eastern and Central Europe," 34.4 percent who listed as "high priority" the U.S. "intervening to end the bloodshed in Bosnia," and 23.3 percent who gave "high priority" to "intervening to end the civil war in Somalia."

In the event the Middle East talks become stalled, 61.5 percent would favor the new U.S. government "providing new ideas to restart the peace talks." Some 20 percent thought that if the talks stalled, the Clinton administration "should leave the parties to themselves to either succeed or fail"; and 10 percent thought the U.S. should "impose a solution."

In the same poll, 62.9 percent disagreed with the proposition that "the U.S. should maintain its current annual level of $3 billion in aid to Israel," and 51.5 percent disagreed with the statement that "the U.S. should continue to sell arms to its Gulf war allies in the Middle East."

More Americans agreed (42.3 percent) than disagreed (37.3 percent) with the statement that "the U.S. should be committed to an independent Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. " A majority (52.4 percent) favored a U.S. commitment to get all foreign forces out of Lebanon.

A thumping 90.5 percent agreed that "Iraq under Saddam Hussain represents a major threat to peace and stability in the Middle East."

In assessing blame for the Palestinian-Israeli dispute, a clear majority (52 percent) blamed "both sides equally," 16.6 percent blamed the Palestinians and 9.9 percent blamed Israel.

Assessing the position on the Israeli-Palestinian dispute of the outgoing Bush administration, 37.4 percent said it had been "fair and impartial to both sides," 34.2 percent it had "leaned toward Israel," and 6.2 percent said it had "leaned toward the Palestinians."

Reasonable conclusions: The U.S. public puts a higher priority both on settlement of the Arab-Israeli dispute and the security of its Gulf war allies in the Middle East than on other foreign policy problems. It is willing to link U.S. economic aid and military aid and sales to solving those problems, expects the Clinton administration to provide new ideas to restart the peace talks, and does not strongly blame either the Israelis or the Palestinians more than the other. The U.S. public strongly opposes Saddam Hussain, favors withdrawal of all foreign forces from Lebanon, and more Americans favor than oppose establishment of an independent Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza.