Soviet Immigrants to Israel Cost Five Times More Than Immigrants to US

By John Asfour

Israel has given a preliminary estimate that one million Soviets settling there over the next five years will cost some $40 billion. This may be wildly optimistic based on past performance of the Israeli economy. In any case, most of the cost would have to come directly from United States government sources. Settling the same number in the United States and Europe would cost no more than one fifth of that figure, according to published figures and the history of the refugee relief program.

When the US government, under the direct influence of Israeli officials and some US Jewish organizations, decided two years ago to close down the Rome and Vienna processing centers for Soviet refugees, it effectively constricted the program to an understaffed US Embassy in Moscow. It also ignored the known desire of Soviet Jewish immigrants to go to the United States or Western Europe rather than to Israel. Some American Jewish organizations felt uncomfortable with forcing the Soviet Jews to go to Israel by capping the US program for refugee visas for Soviet citizens to about 50 percent of the total US refugee intake worldwide. But their views were muffled and ignored by the mainstream US Jewish organizations which coordinate more closely with the Likud government in Israel.

Past Costs to US Taxpayers

The cost to US taxpayers for past surges in Soviet Jews going to Israel indicates that each recent immigrant to Israel cost at least $20,000 in additional Israeli budget deficits during the first year, and an additional $25,000 over the next four years after the immigrant's arrival. This would indicate that the cost of one million Soviet Jews would be closer to $50 billion during the coming five years, taking inflation into account.

Considering the deficit status of Israel, and the fact that its perpetual deficit economy is tied to exports of diamonds and defense goods, and to tourism receipts—all expected to be affected very negatively in the '90s—cost of settlement of Soviet Jews will have to come from two sources: US government special appropriations, and largely tax deductible gifts from US Jewry.

Settlement of Jews in Israel has always been costly. Even during the 1950s, the amount spent per family of three or four was about $15 thousand the first year and another $20 thousand over the next five years for investment in job-creating industries and support. Inflation has been high in Israel and that accounts for the considerably higher cost in the 1990s for the necessary industry and job-creating investment that must be made.

Another factor making the settlement in Israel potentially far more expensive to the US Treasury than bringing refugees to the United States is the fact that most of the one million projected refugees will emerge from the Soviet Union in the next three years. A lion's share of the $40 billion would have to be appropriated by the US Congress in FY 1992, an election year, and the two following years. Projecting the numbers indicates that current US aid to Israel would have to leap from $3.6 billion in the last fiscal year (including the special supplemental appropriation) to something approaching $8 billion in FY 1992, $10 billion in the following year, and $12 billion in FY 1994. Can that possibly be defended?

Disguised Appropriations

Of course, what will happen are efforts within Congress to disguise the appropriations. These would include the forgiveness of all Israeli debts to the United States, permitting the reduction of these figures by $2 billion and perhaps $3 billion a year in new appropriations. The US government, of course, would have to assume the forgiven debts, and the interest thereon, so long as the US budget is in deficit.

By comparison, resettlement of one million Soviet refugees in the United States could be done at less than one fifth of that cost. Organized programs to do just that in the past, involving US Jewish and Russian Orthodox or Evangelical resettlement agencies, has meant less than $3,000 in first-year costs per refugee, and perhaps $5,000 in additional welfare or job-training and job-creation programs over a five-year period.

Quite aside from the present negative political impact on US foreign policy objectives of diverting Soviet emigres into the volatile Middle East, dispersing many of these immigrants into the $6 trillion American economy is economically much more attractive. The decision, however, was made neither on US economic nor US foreign policy grounds, but solely in accordance with the Israeli doctrine that all Jews must eventually come to Jerusalem.

It has been pointed out that enough musicians to form 200 complete Soviet symphony orchestras are expected to arrive in Israel in the next few years. The likelihood that this many musicians could ever find work in their field in Israel is, of course, preposterous.

This projection simply demonstrates that the better choice for American decision makers in the Department of State, at the Immigration and Naturalization Service and in the White House would have been to leave undisturbed the free choice of destinations formerly allowed emigres of all religious persuasions. (About half of the Soviet citizens applying for refugee status are not Jewish. They include Armenians, Evangelical Christians, and other minorities.) At Rome and Vienna, before these centers were closed, only 10 percent of those who identified themselves as Jewish were choosing to go to the Jewish homeland.

Enough musicians to form 200 complete Soviet symphony orchestras are expected to arrive in Israel in the next few years.

The decision to close the door to all but an annual 50,000 refugees, of whom 40,000 would be Jewish, trying to escape the chaos of the Soviet Union, was made in close consultation with congress members operating under the influence of an Israeli government more and more committed to "transferring" by force Palestinians from the West Bank, if not Gaza, and replacing them with a Jewish population. Under pressure from these congress members and senators, the Department of State came up with the decision to shut down the free choice points in Rome and Vienna. If the ultimate cost to the US taxpayer is at least $40 billion, that is an amount equal to the cost of all child-care programs throughout the United States during this same period.

The political cost? A National Security Council Middle East policyrnaker defended the policy to a Washington, DC audience by saying that one million new Soviet Jewish immigrants would "reassure Israelis and make it possible for Shamir's government to make peace" with the Palestinians. A Palestinian American in the audience responded: "Outrageous, simply outrageous."

John Asfour is a specialist on the economy and demography of the Middle East.