Lebanese Brace for Possible Israeli Military Attacks In Run Up to Israel’s National Election in May

By Carole H. Dagher

There is growing fear in Lebanon that, with Israeli elections scheduled in May, Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu may seek to enhance his chances at the polls by launching attacks on Lebanese villages and infrastructure, as occurred during the run up to Israeli elections in 1996.

Such fears were intensified by a sudden redeployment of the Israeli-funded and -directed South Lebanon Army (SLA) at the end of December from Jezzine and Kfarfalous to Roum. There were also reports of infighting within the SLA, which suffered 35 dead and 42 wounded in 1998.

Many defections from the SLA have occurred since serious discussion intensified in Israel over whether Israeli forces (which suffered 24 deaths in Lebanon in 1998) should withdraw unilaterally from southern Lebanon. Departure to an “unknown destination” of SLA leader Gen. Antoine Lahd, also has been rumored.

Expressing his fears of a “military aggression” against Lebanon prior to Israel’s national elections in May, Prime Minister Salim Hoss said “only the United States is capable of preventing Israeli aggression against Lebanese infrastructure, such as electricity, water and road networks.” Hoss also told journalists: “Israeli occupation of a part of Lebanon is one of the main issues worrying the Israeli society and one of the main issues at stake in the electoral campaign. This is why we do not exclude the chance of Israel carrying out an act of aggression against Lebanon.”

The situation brings back horrific memories of April 1996, just before the Jewish state’s last general election, when then-Prime Minister Shimon Peres waged a major two-week offensive in Lebanon. The 17-day “Grapes of Wrath” onslaught left 175 dead, most of them civilians. That operation was officially meant to “crush” Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shi’i militia that has carried out the brunt of the fighting against forces in Israel’s “security zone” in southern Lebanon, but it was clear that Peres wanted to prove to the Israeli electorate that he could be as hawkish as his electoral opponent, Netanyahu.

This year, again, Lebanese diplomatic and media sources report that even Washington, a close ally, fears the Israeli prime minister will strike, perhaps at Syrian targets in Lebanon—in a bid to reinforce his popularity with Israeli voters. The U.S. concerns grew after the Israeli government issued a formal warning in early January that it would carry out costly reprisals if Lebanese guerrillas carried out new rocket attacks on northern Israel.

Violence has mounted in the region since the Dec. 22 Israeli air raid that killed a mother and her six children in the Bekaa Valley in eastern Lebanon, triggering a cycle of daily attacks and counter-attacks.

Since then Hezbollah has twice launched rockets into northern Israel, wounding 16 civilians. In turn, Netanyahu implemented a threat to strike Lebanon’s infrastructure in response to resistance attacks on Israeli targets in the security zone and northern Israel. Israeli bombardments damaged electricity and water installations in southern Lebanon.

Meanwhile, Israel’s new defense minister, Moshe Arens, said during a visit to northern Israel that he opposes a unilateral withdrawal from occupied south Lebanon. Arens was speaking after holding talks with the army chief of staff, Shaul Mohfaz, and the head of the Israeli-directed militia in occupied south Lebanon, Antoine Lahd. Arens pledged to protect Lahd no matter “what the future holds for the region.”

Lebanese President Emile Lahoud and Prime Minister Hoss reiterated the need to further consolidate ties with Syria, while Sheikh Mohammed Hussein Fadlallah, spiritual leader of the Hezbollah, said that “we’re turning round and round, since the Lebanese track is linked to the Syrian track and Israel is not willing to make concessions to Damascus.”

Launching Internal Reforms

Meanwhile, President Lahoud’s new regime is carrying out a series of measures to implement administrative reform. Prime Minister Hoss reasserted the government’s aims of “ending the troika system installed by the former regime” and “restoring the democratic process based on the separation of powers.”

Dozens of political appointees hired by former Premier Rafiq Hariri have been laid off, and semi-public agencies that do not fall under control of the administrative institutions have been abolished.

Transparency, privatization, a new electoral law and reducing the public deficit by putting together a balanced budget are the priorities of the new government for the coming months.

Carole H. Dagher is a free-lance Lebanese journalist and frequent visitor to the United States.