Washington Report on Middle East Affairs, March 1998, Pages 42, 85

Letter From Lebanon

A Crucial Year for Democracy in Lebanon Opens With a Warming of U.S.-Lebanese Relations

By Carole Dagher

Positive signals have been sent to Lebanon during the last months, despite some important setbacks on the economic level as well as in the media policies of the government. In a much publicized move, Saudi Arabia deposited $600 million with the Lebanese Central Bank for a period of three years to activate the country's monetary reserves. Viewed as a "shot in the arm" by some economists, the Saudi initiative (that came through Saudi al-Ahli Bank), was welcomed by Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri, who said it should help Lebanon overcome its financial problems and strengthen its currency.

The Saudi deposit eased the tension that was affecting the Lebanese pound at the end of 1997. Lebanese businessmen were concerned about the slowdown in economic growth and a ballooning national debt, estimated at between $13.5 and $15 billion, that was threatening the stability of the currency amidst a set of corruption scandals that had reached the highest political circles. One of these became known as "the Middle East Airlines (MEA) case." It involved MEA chairman Khaled Salam, who had leased from Singapore Airlines three not-so-new Airbuses at a particularly high cost, despite the Lebanese national airline's budget deficit of $53 million for 1997. Under pressure of a media campaign that suggested kickbacks had been paid to MEA officials to sanction the deal, the MEA board resigned and a new board was established, including a former president of Air France. The MEA now has embarked on a complete restructuring process.

U.S. "New Moves" in Lebanon

It was said that the Saudi financial contribution had been encouraged by the U.S. administration, and discussed between Saudi officials and Assistant Secretary of State for Near East Affairs Martin Indyk during his Mideast tour last December.

At a time when U.S. policy in the Middle East is stalled because of Binyamin Netanyahu's intransigence, and when U.S. special envoy Dennis Ross has failed repeatedly in his attempts to revive the peace process, fostering stabilization in Lebanon and avoiding any major economic or political crisis seems to be of renewed American interest. Martin Indyk's meetings in Beirut included, beside President Elias Hrawi and Prime Minister Hariri, Lebanese Armed Forces commander-in-chief General Emile Lahoud and a Maronite opposition leader, Dory Chamoun.

Indyk's visit and discussions with the Lebanese leaders triggered a media debate over motivations for what was viewed as the "sudden U.S. interest in Lebanon." Hezbollah Secretary-General Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah viewed it as an attempt to "separate both Lebanese and Syrian tracks."

The U.S. presence in Lebanon has been an active one lately.

He also scorned announcements of financial contributions by U.S. Ambassador Richard Jones, and compared them to the U.S. annual budget for Israel. "It is ridiculous that the ambassador donates $10,000 to this or that institution or distributes some cows to farmers in the Bekaa while the U.S. offers $3 billion each year to the Israeli enemy," he said.

However, the Hezbollah leader was the only major political figure in Lebanon who expressed fear of a certain amount of American involvement in Lebanon on both the economic and political levels. According to local analysts, he was reflecting Syrian concern about possible "competition" between Damascus and Washington in Lebanon or "use" by the United States of mainly Christian political elements hostile to Syrian hegemony in Lebanon to put pressure on the Damascus regime.

This concern is diminishing, however, since most observers view the U.S. role as either a neutral one in regard to Syria, or even reflecting Syrian-American coordination in Lebanon. In fact the U.S. presence in Lebanon has been an active one lately.

Ambassador Jones launched some meaningful economic and development programs in various regions of the country, including the Bekaa Valley, met and received leaders and representatives from a broad political and social spectrum of the country, and has emphasized the necessity of holding the municipal elections, scheduled for May, on time—a "hope" also expressed by President Clinton to President Hrawi two months ago.

Meanwhile, and in the wake of Secretary of State Albright's decision to lift the travel ban on Lebanon and her visit to Beirut last September, U.S. delegations including members of Congress and American businessmen of Lebanese descent visited Lebanon in early January, and met with all major political and religious representatives of the country. They were also received in Syria by President Hafez Assad.

Most meaningful was the announcement of the re-opening of the Kfarfalous road linking the Jezzine area to the rest of the country through the city of Sidon. This announcement coincided with Martin Indyk's visit to Lebanon and was attributed to the U.S. mediation with its ally, Israel, to make that re-opening possible by restraining the Israel-funded and directed South Lebanon Army (SLA). (A first attempt to open the road last summer was faced with shells from SLA positions). Before leaving Lebanon, Indyk had announced to the Lebanese people "a surprise within six weeks."

Israel Recognizes Resolution 425 "On Condition"

Further developments regarding southern Lebanon took place a few weeks after the re-opening of the Kfarfalous passage. The "surprise" predicted by Indyk presumably was the recognition by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu of U.N. Resolution 425, calling for the "total and unconditional withdrawal of Israeli forces from all Lebanese territories." However he attached to this "recognition" pre-conditions (such as security arrangements and the integration of the SLA within the Lebanese Armed Forces) that were impossible for the Lebanese government to accept.

Nevertheless French Foreign Minister Hubert Vedrine, who visited the Middle East in mid-January in an attempt to launch a European initiative regarding the peace talks, said that "Israel's acceptance of Resolution 425 is a good start and a positive development." Somewhat more caustically, Lebanese Foreign Minister Fares Boueiz added: "they finally recognized it 20 years after the U.N. Security Council voted the resolution. So maybe we'll have to wait another 20 years for them to drop any pre-conditions to its implementation."

After discussions with Lebanese officials, Vedrine also acknowledged that the Israeli recognition of 425 "is not yet in accordance with the real framework of the resolution, since it is coupled with a lot of conditions" that render it meaningless. He reiterated the position of French President Jacques Chirac, stated in 1996, that France would participate in any international security mechanisms in southern Lebanon in case of Israeli withdrawal.

Israeli officials have hinted that they may implement a first withdrawal from the Jezzine area. The general perception, however, is that Israel is only maneuvering and will not soon pull out of the south or change its policies there.

Broadcasting Restrictions Trigger Protests

Opening up the "year of elections," viewed by all major observers as the "test year for democracy in Lebanon," the government banned satellite broadcasting of political programs and news. The decision followed a controversial TV talk-show appearance by a prominent opposition member of Parliament, Najah Wakim. His appearance capped a series of talk-shows where opposition figures trashed economic policies of the Hariri cabinet. The government said its decision to suspend TV satellite broadcasting licenses was because these talk-shows were "sending a wrong signal to potential investors abroad that Lebanon is no safe haven for their investments."

The government also prohibited the live broadcast of an interview with Gen. Michel Aoun, who headed the military cabinet of 1988 to 1990. He is living in exile in Paris.

The television bans triggered a demonstration by protesters who gathered for a sit-in in front of the TV building. When police sought to break up the protest TV cameras picked up beatings and arrests that led to further widespread demonstrations. For three days, and for the first time since the end of the civil war in 1991, all major universities in Lebanon witnessed sit-ins while the Beirut and Tripoli Bar Associations and the Engineers Council went on strike.

All politicians and deputies (friends and foes of General Aoun alike) vilified the government's decision that threatened freedom of the press and of expression. U.S. Ambassador Jones emphasized, during a visit to the Maronite patriarch, the need to respect "freedom of expression for all."

Despite the government's suspension of the right to gather and demonstrate, AUB students organized a march through downtown Beirut. The protests reached their peak when some 3,000 university students organized a peaceful sit-in in front of the parliament.

Unrest ended only after arrested students were released and General Aoun appeared on Jan. 11 in a televised interview from Paris, watched by 89 percent of the Lebanese people, according to some media polls. Aoun reiterated his opposition to the "Syrian occupation of Lebanon and the violation of Lebanon's independence and sovereignty" and called for "privileged and tight relations of cooperation and friendship with Syria, on an equal and fair basis for both countries."