Mounting Communal Tensions Increase Need for Cyprus Settlement

by James Dorsey

Mounting tension in the eastern Mediterranean pitting NATO members Turkey and Greece against one another is persuading the United States, the European Union and the United Nations once again to attempt to resolve the protracted inter-communal dispute on the island of Cyprus.

Cyprus, widely viewed as one of the world’s potentially most dangerous flashpoints, fueled international concern with the disclosure early this year that it was purchasing at a cost of $660 million a Russian-built surface-to-air missile system similar to the Patriots made by the United States.

The disclosure, part of an accelerating arms build-up on the island, raised the spectre of renewed military confrontation that could drag Turkey and Greece into the conflagration and create chaos in NATO. Under NATO regulations, member states would be obliged in times of war to aid both Turkey and Greece.

Veiled Threats

Already, Turkey is making veiled threats of a pre-emptive strike against the missiles. “If necessary, the Turkish armed forces will do their duty,” Turkish Prime Minister Necmettin Erbakan said.

“Those who play with fire have to take the responsibilities for their actions,” added Turkish Defense Minister Turhan Tayan, drawing a comparison to the 1962 Cuban missile crisis, when the United States was poised to attack Cuba after the Soviet Union stationed missiles on the island in America’s backyard.

Noting that Turkish troops invaded northern Cyprus to protect Turkish Cypriots after a Greek-backed junta seized control of the Cypriot government in 1974, Tayan warned: “We will do the same again. If needed, we will strike.”

Turkey has kept some 30,000 troops in the north ever since 1974, and the Turkish- occupied portion of Cyprus unilaterally declared its independence in 1983. Turkey is the only country that has recognized the self-declared state.

Cyprus defends the planned acquisition of the missiles, which have a range of 150 kilometers, as a first step toward building a credible air defense system. The missiles would neutralize the air superiority Turkey has had since 1974.

“Basically, the system can lock onto Turkish planes and take them out in Turkish airspace, which is a significant change over the equipment [the Greek Cypriots] currently have,” says a Western military official.

The missile purchase is only the latest link in a chain of incidents that have fueled regional tensions, and follows a recent build-up of weapons by both sides. Cyprus already is one of the world’s most heavily militarized countries, on a per capita basis.

On the south side of the Green Line patroled by a United Nations peacekeeping force, 12,500 Greek Cypriot troops backed by more than 50 battle tanks serve to protect some 650,000 inhabitants. The force pales against Turkey’s 265 tanks poised on the north side of the boundary to defend a region comprising 175,000 people. Both Turkey and Greece have defense commitments to their respective Cypriot communities.

After a period of relative calm, tension began to build again last August, when a group of motorcyclists arrived in Greek Cyprus determined to ram their way through the U.N.-controlled buffer zone. Turkish defenders killed two bikers when they tried to carry out their threat. Tension increased in November when Turkey ordered its warplanes to overfly the Cypriot capital of Nicosia—a move that Greek Cypriots now use to justify the purchase of an air defense system.

If escalating tension is not enough to persuade the international community to focus again on peacemaking in Cyprus, expected negotiations with the EU over Cypriot membership is certain to do the trick.

With Turkish and Greek Cyprus so deeply divided and unable to agree on a solution to their inter-communal conflict, the government in Nicosia can only negotiate on behalf of the Greek Cypriots.

That raises complex questions for both Turkey and the EU, including whether Europe wishes to import the Cyprus conflict by adopting only one of the island’s communities. At the same time, Turkey is unlikely to take kindly to Greek Cypriot membership at a time when Europe is unwilling to honor Turkey’s own long-standing request to become part of the union.

Some European officials believe that the prospect of EU membership negotiations with Greek Cyprus as well as glaring economic disparity between the more prosperous Greek and economically lagging Turkish parts of the island, may serve to break down resistance in Turkey to a compromise resolution.