Fencing Off the Palestinians Can Be the Death Blow to Peace

By Robert Hazo

After the Jan. 21 suicide bombings by Palestinians opposed to the so-called "peace process," Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin felt he had hit his lowest point since the signing of the Oslo accords. With an outraged and growing Israeli opposition led by Likud's Benyamin Netanyahu and fueled by 50 to 60 Israeli dead and hundreds wounded in recent months, the pressure to appease the Israeli rejectionists has become intense.

Riot police have been forced to use water hoses to break up Israeli demonstrations. Many demonstrators routinely referred to Rabin as a "murderer" or "traitor." Armed attacks by Israeli civilians on Palestinian civilians are regarded as a growing problem.

A Weakened Rabin Government

Rabin's broadcast stressing that there is no alternative to peace took some courage, even though he had no other options. He had, after all, staked the fate of his government on carrying out his peace plan. If he openly abandoned it, the case for retaining him as prime minister would become exceedingly weak. It has in any case been gravely weakened not only by events but by the Jan. 22 statement by highly respected Ezer Weizman, holder of the non-political, largely ceremonial presidency of Israel, publicly calling for a suspension of the peace process. Although the statement was to a large extent retracted the following day, the damage had been done.

Therefore, while still nominally endorsing the peace process, Rabin simultaneously has announced measures that will, if carried out literally, kill what is left of it. The key to Israeli policy in the future is to be "separation" of Israelis and Palestinians. Mention has been made of massive Israeli troop patrols and the construction of an electronic fence (in effect a chain-link Berlin wall) estimated to cost as much as $230 million and to require five years for construction. These and other measures would physically separate Israelis and Palestinians, no small feat given the inevitable contacts in a unified Jerusalem and given the ease with which the fence that has been built to seal off Gaza has been penetrated. Further, since Rabin has stated that Israel will never withdraw to the 1967 (Green Line) borders, just where the fence will be built will determine a border that was supposed to be negotiated under the spirit of the Declaration of Principles.

The policy of separation also leaves Israel's 800,000 Arab citizens in limbo. They are by no means fully integrated into Israeli society and are by no means content with their lot.

The Palestinians say they would welcome separation with sovereignty, but without sovereignty they would look upon it as imprisonment. Needless to say, the laborers from the West Bank have been blocked from going into Israel to work, and there is talk of blocking them permanently by continuing the importation of thousands of non-Arab foreign workers to do the manual labor.

Israeli government leaders do not look upon the Palestinians as equals and never have.

Bluntly put, the goal of separation without sovereignty would make explicit the fact that Israeli government leaders do not look upon the Palestinians as equals and never have.

Rabin's view of quiescent Palestinians living under Israeli autonomy is quite simply unrealistic. It is based on three false premises: 1) that Arafat, viewed by many as a leader who capitulated while claiming not to have done so, could control the opinion of the overwhelming majority of Palestinians; 2) that the Palestinians would accept a controlled election making Arafat president (probably for life) and establishing a rubber-stamp legislature rather than a parliament representing all differences of political opinion; and, most important, 3) that all of this could be realized while preserving Israeli security and hegemony.

In retrospect it can be understood how many Palestinians saw themselves as held in contempt because they were not ever offered even the hope of eventual equal status with the Israelis. That is why there is no shortage of Palestinian zealots who would prefer a proud death to life under Israeli control.

It is not yet clear how much strategic thinking Rabin has devoted to the hastily adopted policy of separation. Already the settlers are complaining that living beyond the fence leaves them, despite being heavily guarded, in vulnerable outposts in hostile territory. Although it is a situation totally of the settlers' own making, they are, no doubt, correct. Most Palestinians will, of course, become bitter and hostile (or, more accurately, more bitter and more hostile) since many will have their present livelihoods cut off for good.

Shin Bet Infiltration

Shin Bet has been given much more latitude in its use of force in the interrogation of suspects. It will certainly step up its infiltration into the Arab communities in its endless quest to blackmail or bribe Palestinian collaborators. If these measures do not work against a resistance that is developing a death cult as a policy, reoccupation of Jericho and Gaza cannot be ruled out.

A real peace option quite recently had some chance of success since Hamas (which dwarfs and can control Islamic Jihad) openly offered a cessation of violence if the Israel Defense Forces would withdraw from the West Bank. There is no reason to believe the Hamas leaders were not sincere since the only other major option seemed to be a Palestinian civil war—something all Palestinians would do almost anything to avoid. The Israeli government did not reply.

What now? Almost certainly nothing good. If the Palestinians want to continue to negotiate, despite all, they need leverage. Violence of the kind we have seen will not give it to them. If Saudi Arabia, Syria and Egypt present Israel with a united front requiring putting Palestinian sovereignty into the equation, there still would be a long shot at peace at the end of an extended period. King Fahd and Presidents Hafez Al-Assad and Hosni Mubarak did hold a January meeting, apparently for just such a purpose.

In any case, however, what has been repeated endlessly must be said again. The core of the Arab-Israeli conflict is the Palestinian problem. The only acceptable resolution of the Palestinian problem must involve Palestinian sovereignty as the cornerstone of a lasting peace. As it was in the beginning, it is now and will continue to be.

Robert Hazo is chairman of the Middle East Policy Association.