Supplemental Funding Requested for Desert Storm and Aid to Israel

By Dennis J. Wamsted

Not surprisingly, one of the first major items on the agenda of the 102nd Congress is consideration of a supplemental appropriations bill to fund the war against Iraq. The administration was expected to submit its proposal by late February, with congressional consideration to follow. The supplement is certain to be large, in light of current estimates that the war is costing the US from $500 million to $1 billion a day.

Because this will be must-pass legislation, the supplemental is likely to attract unrelated amendments proposed by congress members hoping to take advantage of the original bill's importance. One candidate amendment for the supplemental, then, would be some form of increased aid for Israel.

Unanimous Resolutions Praise Israel's Restraint

Both the House and Senate approved unanimous resolutions in late January condemning Iraq for its "unprovoked attack" against Israel and commending the Jewish state for the restraint it showed by not retaliating. The concurrent resolution was approved in the House by a 416-0 vote on January 23, while the Senate approved a similar measure the next day by a 99-0 vote. Given this degree of support, it is likely that even if Israel did retaliate at some point, congressional backing would remain high.

Speculation that Israel's name would be added to the supplemental list was fueled by Israeli Finance Minister Yitzhak Modai, who said in late January, following a meeting with Deputy Secretary of State Lawrence Eagleburger, that the Jewish state needed an additional $13 billion from the US to fulfill its pressing budgetary needs over the next several years. According to Modai, these funds are needed to cover Israel's direct warrelated losses, estimated at $3 billion to date, and to defray the huge costs of resettling upward of a million Soviet Jewish immigrants through 1992, which may cost as much as $20 billion, with Israel counting on $ 10 billion coming from the US.

It is possible that the administration also may include some additional funding for Israel in its supplemental request, in part to secure continued support from the pro-Israel lobby in Congress for President Bush's Gulf policies. Congressional observers have also speculated that additional aid may be included in the supplement for both Egypt and Turkey, key allies in the current conflict against Iraq.

Bush's Foreign Aid Budget

The foreign aid budget submitted to Congress by the Bush administration in early February adds further credence to the speculation that additional funds for Israel, Egypt and Turkey will be included in the supplemental request. Although the request (which is for fiscal year 1992, starting on Oct. 1, 1991) is essentially unchanged from current year levels, the supporting documentation states that "the most critical security need is support of key US allies in the multilateral effort to respond to Iraq, in particular Egypt and Turkey. These countries have incurred substantial risk and economic hardship by their firm support of international sanctions and other means to force Iraq out of Kuwait."

Subsequently, the document also mentions the need to maintain strong support for Israel. Setting the stage for future requests, either this spring or later, the budget notes that "it is impossible to predict now precisely what actual needs will be in 1992—particularly in the Middle East."

The administration is requesting budget authority for a program totaling just over $34 billion, compared to the $20.1 billion in budget authority approved for the current fiscal year. However, the vast bulk of this proposed increase is a $12.1 billion hike in US support for the International Monetary Fund which, because of the nature of IMF's lending practices, does not actually entail any cash outlays by the United States.

Consequently, looking at proposed outlays presents a far more realistic view of the foreign aid budget. In fiscal 1991, the administration estimates that it will spend $18.7 billion on the entire US foreign aid program, of which $7.8 billion will go toward international security assistance, primarily aid for Israel and Egypt.

By contrast, for fiscal 1992 the administration proposes to spend $19.6 billion on the US foreign aid program, an increase of $874 million, or roughly 4.6 percent. However, the picture is somewhat different in the international security assistance account, where the administration expects to spend only $7.74 billion in fiscal 1992, down from the $7.84 billion estimated for the current fiscal year.

Broken down even further, the administration is proposing to spend $4.22 billion on the foreign military sales (FMS) program in fiscal 1992 and $3.39 billion on the economic support fund (ESF). Although the specific proposals for Israel and Egypt were not immediately available, in the current fiscal year Congress has appropriated $3 billion in FMS and ESF funds for Israel and $2.11 billion for Egypt—or just under 66 percent of the total.

No significant changes, either up or down, are likely in the current proposal. Consequently, if Congress wants to boost aid to either country, but particularly Israel, members will either have to approve a supplemental request or significantly exceed the administration's original request, which is difficult in light of the budget agreement crafted by Congress and the administration last fall.

Aid Obstacles

Israel's congressional supporters have never been shy when it comes to inserting funds in various sections of the foreign aid and, increasingly, the Defense Department budgets to support the Jewish state. But countercurrents may slow any such effort this year, despite the general popularity of Israel among America's elected officeholders.

For starters, the sluggish US economy has shown no signs yet of recovering, although Bush administration economists maintain that the recession will be short. Never a popular program even in the best of times, support for foreign aid, both among politicians and the public, is likely to erode still further given continued evidence of economic hardship in the US.

In addition, the huge federal budget deficit will severely constrain Israel's congressional supporters, since now any increase in aid to the Jewish state has to come at the expense of some other program. There simply is no new money to be found.

Last fall's budget agreement divided federal spending into three pools—defense, domestic and international—and prohibited congress members from cutting programs in one category and shifting the savings into one of the other two. Consequently, any increase in aid to Israel will have to come at the expense of some other foreign aid recipient. Given that Israel already accounts for more than 38 percent of the total international security assistance budget, any significant increase would be difficult, if not impossible, to justify.

Quotable

Direct criticism of Israel by members of Congress, never politically popular, has virtually ground to a halt since the outbreak of hostilities between the US and Iraq. Indeed, many congress members pointedly praised Israel in late January for its decision not to retaliate against Iraq for the Scud missile attacks. Despite this outward amity, there are a number of unresolved issues that are likely to resurface once the conflict with Iraq is settled. One such issue is Israel's continuing refusal to reopen all of the universities in the occupied West Bank and Gaza Strip.

On Jan. 18, Rep. Nick Joe Rahall (D-WV) reintroduced a resolution calling on Israel to reopen these universities. Last year, both the House and Senate added provisions to the foreign aid bill calling on the Israeli government to reopen the schools and, in an earlier move, 82 representatives cosponsored a resolution (House Concurrent Resolution 315) calling on Israel to open all the universities. Rahall's action starts the process anew for the 102nd Congress.

Excerpts from Rep. Rahall's remarks in introducing the measure included:

"I am pleased to introduce a concurrent resolution calling upon the Israeli government to reopen the universities which have been closed for more than three years, located in the occupied territories of the West Bank and Gaza.

" . . . As it now stands, and as it has stood for three years, tens of thousands of university students and high school graduates have been cut off from any chance to pursue professional education and training.

"Palestinians, very much like Israelis, have long taken pride in being the most educated group in the Arab world. The institutions that have been closed ... do not now and have never received financial support from the Israeli government...

"It is obvious that reopening all the universities on the West Bank and Gaza would make an important contribution to improving relations between Palestinians and the government of Israel and the pursuit of peace in the region, as well as to improve trade relations between the European Community and Israel.

"For this and many reasons, Mr. Speaker, I urge my colleagues to join me in co-sponsoring this concurrent resolution, so that these institutions of learning, of such grave importance to the future of Palestinian youth be reopened and remain open, and be regarded and respected by all parties as places of learning, and not be made the scapegoat of unrest created by the intifadah. "

Dennis J. Wamsted is a free-lance writer specializing in the US Congress and Middle East affairs.