Arms Sales and the 100th Congress

By Dennis J. Wamsted

The Reagan administration has notified Congress of its intent to sell a $2.2 billion arms package to Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain. In addition, administration and Defense Department sources say a number of other equally large sales are currently in the planning stage. However, proposed legislation introduced in the Senate and House of Representatives would make it nearly impossible to sell arms to any Arab country except Egypt. The coming months should be eventful indeed.

Pending Proposals

The administration's first proposed arms sales, which were formally sent to Congress on January 27th, are expected to be approved with minimal controversy. Included in these proposals are:

1) Forty F-16C and F-16D fighter aircraft, valued at $1.3 billion, for Egypt;

2) Twelve General Dynamics F-16 fighters, valued at $440 million, for Bahrain; and

3) Two hundred Bradley armored personnel carriers, valued at $500 million, for Saudi Arabia.

One State Department source said the sales represent an attempt to "get back to business as usual with our Arab friends." Although it is unclear if these proposals will result in a return to "business as usual," the proposals are both symbolically and militarily significant.

The sale of F-16s to Bahrain, a member of the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), would insure that the GCC will not standardize its members' air forces around the European-built Tornado jet fighter purchased by Saudi Arabia in 1985. Saudi Arabia opted for the Tornado after intense congressional opposition forced the Reagan administration to postpone indefinitely a planned sale of additional F-15 fighters to the Saudis. Although opposition from AIPAC (the American-Israel Public Affairs Committee) and pro-Israel Members of Congress is not expected on these proposed arms sales, any one—or all three—could be blocked if Congress passes a joint resolution opposing them.

Future Sales Planned

The Reagan administration has in mind a number of other arms sales to Arab countries. For example, State Department sources say the administration would like to sell military equipment to Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and possibly the GCC. The sales to Saudi Arabia are likely to include:

1) Twenty-eight Sikorski Black Hawk and Bell 406 helicopters;

2) Electronic countermeasure (ECM) upgrades for the F-5 and F-15 fighter aircraft currently in the Royal Saudi Air Force; and

3) Several so-called "attrition" F-15 Eagle jet fighters to replace aircraft lost in training accidents.

The administration is also considering the sale of equipment to Jordan that would allow the Jordanian government to convert its Improved Hawk antiaircraft missiles from fixed position to mobile units. Finally, defense industry sources say Saudi Arabia and the GCC have begun negotiations for the purchase of between 10 and 24 Lockheed P-3 Orion surveillance aircraft, which are designed for both antisubmarine warfare and long-range ship monitoring activities, to defend shipping in the Gulf region from Iranian attack. Administration and industry sources say the Orion deal could be worth as much as $1 billion.

Pro-Israel Members of Congress are likely to oppose these proposed sales. In fact, except for the Orion aircraft deal, each of these sales has previously been favored by the Reagan administration and rejected, in one way or another, by Congress. For example, the administration first proposed selling Improved Hawk conversion sets to Jordan in the fall of 1985. Congress delayed the sale until early 1986, and then the administration to withdraw the sale from consideration entirely. Similarly, the helicopters and ECM aircraft equipment for Saudi Arabia were originally included in a $1 billion-plus sale first considered—but never introduced—by the administration in late 1985. By the time the sale was introduced in early 1986, it had been cut back to roughly $350 million and included only Sidewinder air-to-air, Harpoon anti-ship, and Stinger anti-aircraft missiles—all of which were already in the Saudi arsenal. Even then, the administration was forced to remove the Stinger missiles from the package in order to secure passage of the sale by the slimmest of margins, a single vote, in the Senate.

Proposed Legislation

Proposed legislation recently introduced by Representative Mel Levine (D-CA) and Senator Joseph Biden (D-DE) could make it virtually impossible for the US to sell weapons to Middle Eastern countries besides Israel and Egypt. The legislative proposal, called the Arms Export Reform Act, divides potential recipients of US arms into two categories: "consensus" and "non-consensus." The first category includes America's North Atlantic Treaty Organization allies, as well as Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Egypt and, not surprisingly, Israel. The rest of the world, including such US allies as Jordan, Morocco and Saudi Arabia, would be placed in the "non-consensus category.

Under the terms of the bill, all sales of sensitive weaponry—such as aircraft, all types of missiles, ships and submarines, among others—to "non-consensus" countries would have to be approved by Congress. Under current procedures, sales are approved unless two thirds of both the House and Senate oppose the sale, an extremely difficult legislative feat. Therefore, for the president to secure "approval" of an arms sale, he must have the support of a one-third minority plus one vote in either chamber. However, if the Levine-Biden bill is enacted, a president would need a majority in both houses to sell US weaponry to a so-called "non-consensus" country. Another provision of the Levine-Biden bill removes the $14 million threshold for congressional review; thereby subjecting all sales to "non-consensus" countries—irrespective of size—to congressional scrutiny.

Not surprisingly, the administration strongly opposes this measure. The State and Defense departments have launched intensive lobbying campaigns against the bill's passage. Pentagon spokesman Lt. Col. Brownlee recently said that the Defense Department would view the passage of the Levine-Biden measure as "detrimental to US foreign policy." Similarly, J. Edward Fox, Assistant Secretary of State for Legislative and Intergovernmental Affairs, said the bill would "needlessly hinder a long-proven process of congressional-executive coordination, and coordination in the vital area of foreign arms sales." If the bill becomes law, it would almost certainly end American arms sales to Arab countries other than Egypt.

Levine, a Jewish and staunchly pro-Israel member of the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Europe and the Middle East, is quite open about the bill's intent. According to one of his aides, Levine wants to deny arms to countries such as Saudi Arabia and Jordan if they are "unable to play a constructive role in the Middle East peace process." This is a longstanding congressional code phrase for recognition of Israel before Israel's permanent boundaries are established. Without such recognition, the pro-Israel argument goes, it is impossible to play a "constructive" role in the peace process. Given current political realities, if the Levine-Biden proposal becomes law, US arms sales to Arab countries other than Egypt would become relics of a bygone era of relative reason.

Dennis J. Wamsted is a Washington, DC-based freelance writer specializing in Middle East affairs and the US Congress.