Egypt: Small Gains on Hill

By Allan Kellum

The flurry of diplomatic activity in the Middle East over the last several weeks has noticeably softened congressional criticism of both Egypt and Jordan. However, this change could be short-lived if all the recent activity does not produce quick results.

Two regional events—agreement between Jordan and the PLO on a "framework for common action" to solve the Palestinian problem, and the apparent thawing of relations between Egypt and Israel—caused a great deal of optimism on Capitol Hill. Would the long-moribund Middle East peace process be revived? Would Jordan and the Palestinians, following Egypt's example, enter into direct negotiations with Israel? Many in Congress voiced their hopes that a new chapter in the peace process had begun at last, though by no means had skepticism vanished.

"There is nothing that any member of Congress would like to see more in the Middle East than movement that would lead to a just and durable peace in the region," said Representative Mel Levine (D-CA) of the recent Mideast developments. "All of us are watching with deep interest."

President Mubarak drew praise on Capitol Hill by calling for direct negotiations between Israel and a joint Palestinian-Jordanian delegation. However, congressmen were less receptive later when Mr. Mubarak said that as a first step the U.S. should hold discussions with a Palestinian-Jordanian delegation and bring Israel into the talks in a second step. Jordan's King Hussein also enhanced his image in Congress by reaching an agreement with PLO chairman Yasser Arafat on a negotiating formula that accepted the basic principle contained in U.N. Resolution 242—the exchange of Israeli-held Arab territory in return for peace.

Praise and Pressure

In late January and early February there had been a steady drumbeat of charges that Egypt was not living up to its obligations under the Camp David Accords. Representative Larry Smith (D-FL) was the leading proponent of that view, but, by late February, he was praising President Mubarak's peace overtures. Smith said at a February 26 House Mideast panel hearing: "I'm happy that he has gone so far in trying to stay within the Camp David approach." But at the same time, Smith and three other House members collected co-signatures on a letter to President Mubarak, urging him to return Egypt's ambassador to Israel, open up trade and tourism with Israel, and to hold a summit meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Shimon Peres.

For its part, the Administration has not, in the words of Assistant Secretary of State Richard Murphy, "thought the Egyptian-Israeli relationship to be as tattered and worn and dishonored as has been suggested in some circles." At a February 28 hearing Mr. Murphy cautioned the House Subcommittee on Europe and the Middle East against rushing to judgment on the state of relations between the two countries. "Let's be careful," said Murphy, to hold "to the middle road... Let's sift the evidence. Let's talk it out."

Representative Levine spoke of his difficulty in viewing Yasser Arafat as a diplomat rather than a terrorist, saying that "it's difficult to trust Mr. Arafat." He said he would look for help from Mr. Murphy and the State Department for evidence that would "put some of these fears to the side." Representative Levine seemed to be indicating a readiness to accept a new image of the PLO leader if the facts warranted it.

At the same time, some in Congress speculate that the flurry of regional activity is only a public relations gimmick on the part of the Arab world, particularly Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia, as they look to the U.S. for various forms of aid and arms sales. One such skeptic is Tom Lantos (D-CA). While saying that "we are all hoping that this recent flurry of news reports on possible negotiations will materialize," Congressman Lantos wondered out loud at the February 28 hearing if it might prove to be just "smoke and mirrors." By early March, Lantos was convinced that there was "much less there than meets the eye."

Assistant Secretary Richard Murphy, who appeared again before the House Mideast panel on March 6, disagreed with that assessment, saying that the movement on the Arab side represented "a new chapter" in the diplomacy of the area. But Lantos, along with others in Congress, will be convinced only if the peace process evolves to the point where additional parties, preferably Jordan and the Palestinians, enter direct negotiations with Israel. To them, that would be the most convincing evidence.

In the meantime, what should Congress do?

Answering a similar question at a February 26 hearing, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Robert Pelletreau advised: "Allow this process to continue... Express some friendly interest and support in it and ... encourage it to proceed toward negotiations." Specifically, Mr. Pelletreau urged Congress not to condition U.S. arms or aid to Middle East nations, and not to form "any definitive judgments about a process that is just at its beginning."

Allan Kellum is editor of the Mideast Observer. A sample copy of his publication may be obtained by writing Mideast Observer, P.O. Box 2397, Washington, D.C. 20013.