Leadership Crises in Greece, Turkey May Delay Cyprus Initiative

By Ambassador Raymond C. Ewing

Readers of the Washington Post learned in December 1995 that Richard C. Holbrooke, assistant secretary of state for European and Canadian affairs and the principal U.S. negotiator of the Dayton agreement for peace in Bosnia, would leave his post early in 1996 and return to private life in New York. The Post cited administration sources as expecting that Holbrooke would continue to play an advisory role on Bosnia and possibly undertake diplomatic missions to the region.

Perhaps of even greater surprise was Holbrooke's comment to Post reporter Michael Dobbs that he planned a new bout of shuttle diplomacy in the eastern Mediterranean to promote a comprehensive peace agreement for Cyprus, on the Bosnian model. "We intend to make 1996 the year of the big push on Cyprus," Holbrooke said.

The Post indicated Holbrooke's timing for Cyprus diplomacy was late January, but with Bosnian developments, including President Clinton's Jan. 13 visit, the results of the inconclusive December elections in Turkey, and the grave illness and resignation of Greek Prime Minister Andreas Papandreou, it seemed unlikely that any Holbrooke mission would take place before February at the earliest.

Is a Cyprus settlement possible or likely in 1996? What role is the United States prepared to play?

Cyprus has been divided since 1974, when the military junta in Greece sponsored a coup in Cyprus against its president, Archbishop Markarios III, and Turkey, citing the 1960 Treaty of Guarantee, intervened militarily and took control of 38 percent of the island.

Fighting between the Greek and Turkish communities had erupted previously in December 1963. The United Nations Peacekeeping Force in Cyprus (UNFICYP) was sent in 1964 and has been present on the island continuously since that time.

The United Nations has sponsored intermittent negotiations between the two communities. Since 1975, these talks have focused on how to establish a new constitutional arrangement for Cyprus that would establish a bi-zonal, bicommunal federation.

Among the key issues are how much reduction in area should take place before creation of the new Turkish federated entity; to what degree should there be rights of movement, property, and settlement for Greek Cypriots in the Turkish Cypriot zone, and vice versa; and how much authority should the two entities have and how much should rest with the center. Both sides also have security concerns.

While the island has been divided de facto since 1974 into two areas, the government of the Republic of Cyprus has continued as the internationally recognized authority. In practice, however, its powers extend only to the Greek Cypriot-controlled area. The Turkish Cypriots have set up their own government and in 1983 declared the independence of the "Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus." The latter is recognized only by Turkey.

The economy of the Republic of Cyprus recovered quickly after the events of 1974 in part because of the 1970s economic boom in the Middle East and the civil war in nearby Lebanon. There has been a shift from agriculture to light manufacturing, tourism and financial and other services. GNP growth in the 1980s averaged 5.6 percent and was 5 percent in 1995. Unemployment and inflation have remained low.

The economic disparity between the Greek and Turkish communities is pronounced and has widened. The Turkish Cypriot economy has suffered from lack of private and governmental investment, and shortages of skilled labor and experienced managers. The government of Cyprus has sought, with some success, to limit economic interaction between the Turkish Cypriot sector and the rest of the world. Turkey is the Turkish Cypriot community's major source of imports and outside support. Despite many difficulties, however, the Turkish Cypriot sector has experienced some economic growth and development.

While Cyprus is adjacent to the Middle East and benefits greatly from trade and economic interaction with the region, it primarily looks to Europe for markets and other sources of income. The 1995 European Union summit, held in Madrid on Dec. 15 and 16 confirmed that negotiations for the accession to the EU of Cyprus (and Malta) will commence six months after the conclusion of the 1996 intergovernmental conference. The European Parliament a few days earlier had approved a customs union agreement with Turkey bringing that country into closer integration with Europe.

The European Union member states clearly recognize that a divided Cyprus and the potential for renewed conflict involving EU member Greece and close associate Turkey would pose major problems for Europe. So, the Madrid summit reiterated the importance of "making substantial efforts to achieve a just and viable solution to the question of Cyprus in line with the U.N. Security Council resolutions."

In his periodic report to Congress on progress toward a negotiated settlement of the Cyprus question, President Clinton noted on Jan. 4, 1996 that a regular dialogue between the EU and the two Cypriot communities about EU membership would encourage the parties to use the period before accession negotiations to establish a bi-zonal, bicommunal federation that could ultimately enter the EU.

Other than encouraging the EU, the two Cypriot communities, and the United Nations, are Richard Holbrooke and the United States prepared to engage directly and energetically as happened with the Bosnian conflict at Dayton?

The United States has consistently felt since 1974 that the status quo on Cyprus is unacceptable and potentially dangerous. It has seen the Cyprus issue as a source of disagreement and tension between NATO allies Greece and Turkey. Successive U.S. administrations have felt that U.N.-led intercommunal negotiations are the best means to achieve a lasting Cyprus settlement which would also promote regional stability. The United States has actively supported and aided the efforts of the U.N. Security Council to encourage the two communities to negotiate.

Since 1981, a special Cyprus negotiator, currently Ambassador James Williams, has worked in the Department of State. And President Clinton has also appointed his own special emissary, Richard Beattie, who has held talks in Cyprus, most recently in early December. President Carter also had a special emissary, Clark Clifford, and during his administration a senior State Department official, Matthew Nimetz, closely monitored developments. Presidents Reagan and Bush also took considerable interest in Cyprus.

The U.S. Congress, too, has followed Cyprus closely. It enacted a Cyprus-related arms embargo on Turkey in 1975 which was lifted in 1978. It has required the president to report every two months on Cyprus developments and has appropriated $15 million annually to finance scholarships for Cypriot students and to promote projects which benefit both communities.

While the United States clearly would welcome a Cyprus settlement and has given encouragement to both communities to negotiate and reach an agreement, it has been reluctant to engage more directly in the process, at least until it felt that both sides were willing to make concessions and were serious about give-and-take negotiations.

Thus, up until January 1996, a Dayton-type Cyprus initiative was not actively considered by the U.S. The most that can be reasonably expected of a Holbrooke-Beattie-Williams initiative would be a resumption of face-to-face contact between Greek and Turkish Cypriot leaders, perhaps with additional impetus provided by European Union representatives.

My experience with Cyprus suggests the need for continued caution and patience. I am not convinced that either side finds the status quo sufficiently unsatisfactory to prompt the taking of risks and the making of necessary concessions. Cyprus has been peaceful since 1974. The two leaders, Greek Cypriot Glafcos Clerides and Turkish Cypriot Rauf Denktash, are veteran negotiating partners and have known and respected each other for years. However, the generation of Greek and Turkish Cypriots who knew and appreciated each other is coming to a close. Those who have grown up and lived in Cyprus over the past 20 years hardly know those on the other side of the U.N.-controlled buffer zone unless they study or travel abroad.

So, one can only wish Richard Holbrooke, Richard Beattie and James Williams well. It would be a surprise, albeit a pleasant one, should 1996 turn out to be the year of a Cyprus settlement.

Raymond C. Ewing is the associate/managing editor of Mediterranean Quarterly. He was a career foreign service officer with the Department of State until retiring in 1993. He served as U.S. ambassador to Cyprus from 1981 to 1984.