Summit in Oman Confirms Continued GCC Recovery From Gulf

By Shawn L. Twing

Heads of state from the six countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)—
Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates—met in Muscat, Oman Dec. 4-6 for their 16th annual summit meeting. The summit, which was preceded by a two-day preparatory meeting of ministers from the GCC countries, provided an opportunity for the chiefs of state, all hereditary rulers, to review economic and security issues in the rapidly developing region, which contains some 70 percent of the world's proven petroleum reserves.

Other topics discussed included the United Nations embargo of Iraq and ongoing negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian leadership and other Arab states. Leading their countries' delegations for these discussions were the president of the UAE, Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan; the emir of Kuwait, Sheikh Jaber Al Ahmed Al Sabah; the emir of Bahrain, Sheikh Isa bin Sulman Al Khalifa; the emir of Qatar, Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani; Crown Prince Abdullah bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, representing King Fahd of Saudi Arabia who was recovering from a stroke in Riyadh; and the host, Sultan Qaboos bin Said Al Said of Oman.

The meeting followed by only three weeks Oman's observance of the 25th anniversary of the accession of Sultan Qaboos to the throne in 1970. Amidst this atmosphere of positive change, representatives from the six member-states of the Gulf Cooperation Council discussed how to sustain the unparalleled economic progress in the region in view of continued stagnation in world petroleum prices and staggering financial outlays for two wars in the Arabian Gulf.

The GCC: An Overview

The history of the GCC began with a ground-breaking preparatory meeting of foreign ministers from the six Arab states of the Gulf in Muscat March 9 and 10, 1981. This was followed by a round-table summit meeting in Abu Dhabi, UAE at which the GCC was created on March 25, 1981. Since then, what began as a modest attempt to create a mechanism for collective action has developed into a comprehensive organization that encompasses economic policy and planning, unified diplomatic responses to important international events, and the creation and maintenance of a joint defense force ("Peninsula Shield") to help protect the GCC countries from external threats.

The six GCC member countries possess roughly 40 percent of the world's proven oil reserves. Another 30 percent of the world's reserves are possessed by neighboring Iraq and Iran, both of which send most of their petroleum exports through the Strait of Hormuz at the mouth of the Arabian Gulf. Further, the concentration of natural gas deposits in the region, especially in the rich North Field of Qatar, which is thought to have the third largest natural gas reserves in the world, adds another important dimension to an already vitally important region.

As a result of its importance in world energy production, the region has become a major market for Western countries. During the past two decades the GCC countries have spent enormous sums of money to provide modern educational and medical facilities for their own widely dispersed populations, and high-technology defense systems to protect themselves from neighboring countries with much larger populations and fewer natural resources. This economic development also has resulted in billions of dollars in contracts for Western suppliers of commercial aircraft and of consumer goods ranging from automobiles to computers.

The Economic Agenda

Economic concerns dominated the agenda for the 16th summit. Although the gross domestic product (GDP) of the six states exceeded $207 billion in 1995, flat and declining oil prices have necessitated stricter fiscal practices and signal the need to diversify the economies of the GCC states. Since 1990, the real price of oil, adjusted for inflation, has decreased by nearly 10 percent, rolling it back to prices comparable to those prevailing prior to the petroleum boom that began in 1973. This, coupled with the enormous economic outlays associated with paying for the Gulf war of 1990-1991 and the reconstruction of Kuwait, has led to a serious rethinking of the region's economic situation. It is by no means a dismal portrait, but the leaders of the six GCC countries have concluded that unified economic action is a necessary next step in the future of the organization.

In line with this focus on economic policy, the GCC member-states outlined several goals for the coming year. These included GCC-level negotiations with the world's leading economic power blocs (the United States, Japan and the European Union), the need to increase commercial exchanges both among GCC states and with the outside world, the expansion and diversification of the states' individual economies, and the need to attract more foreign investment. One particularly important economic project that was furthered prior to and during the summit was a regional unification of customs tariffs which Omani Minister of Commerce and Industry Maqbool bin Ali bin Sultan called "a necessity forced by the regional and international climate."

In the end, the summit reinforced existing programs and institutions in the region without adding a significant amount of new direction. It should be noted, however, that since the creation of the GCC there have been well over 100 regular meetings of the six countries' ministers of trade, agriculture, industry, finance and customs. These have resulted in significant progress in economic cooperation and coordination among the member-states.

GCC Policy Toward Iraq

Discussions during the 16th Summit covered two aspects of GCC policy toward Iraq. First, there was uniform support for the Iraqi people and genuine anguish over the harsh conditions in which they are living as the United Nations embargo takes its toll. Second, however, was the belief that before the sanctions can be lifted, Iraq must demonstrate that it is abiding by United Nations Security Council resolutions regarding Kuwait and those calling for the complete dismantling of Iraq's unconventional weapons programs and associated delivery systems. To help achieve these goals, the GCC leaders called on the international community to force Iraq to pay reparations to Kuwait and to return Kuwaiti prisoners of war. The GCC also pledged both political and financial support for the United Nations Disarmament Agency, which is leading the effort to destroy Iraq's capacity to produce weapons of mass destruction.

The Middle East Peace Process

GCC heads of state had much to say concerning ongoing negotiations between the Israeli government and the Palestinian leadership. First, GCC member-states expressed strong support for the current Israeli-Palestinian peace process and peace agreements between Israel and Jordan. They expressed the hope that negotiations would expand to include future agreements between Israel and Syria and Israel and Lebanon. In addition to this general support for the peace process, however, GCC leaders expressed serious concern over two important developments during Arab-Israeli negotiations: Israel's continuing attempts to change the demographic nature and geographic boundaries of Jerusalem, and the decision by the U.S. Congress to move the U.S. Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem by 1999.

In reference to Israel's policies in and around Jerusalem, GCC leaders uniformly called on the Israelis to stop their illegal settlement activities and to avoid prejudicing the issue of Jerusalem before the third and final state of negotiations, mandated to begin by May 1996 by the Oslo accords and to be completed within three years. The Israelis are encircling Arab East Jerusalem with Jewish settlements in an attempt to create more "facts on the ground" before the completion of third-stage negotiations. These efforts, according to the GCC leadership and much of the international community, inevitably will jeopardize the Arab-Israeli peace process.

Another disruptive development, according to the GCC leadership, was the U.S. Congress's passage on Oct. 25, 1995 of the Embassy Relocation Act, which requires the United States to move its embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem by 1999, with provisions for the president to extend that limit by six-month intervals if he deems it to be in the interest of U.S. national security. GCC leaders voiced their concern about the effect that this legislation will have on the U.S. role as an "honest broker" between Israelis and Palestinians, as well as the overall negative effect it will have on the third-stage negotiations under the Oslo agreement.

Collective Defense and Security

It is interesting to note the way in which defense and security issues have developed in the GCC framework since its inception in 1981. During the first meeting of the Council in March 1981, security was not an official topic on the agenda. Since then, to a large extent due to the prompting of Sultan Qaboos, defense issues have been included on the Council's agenda and mechanisms for collective defense have been created. Now, as a result of Iraq's Aug. 2, 1990 invasion of Kuwait and Iran's ongoing rearmament campaign, collective defense measures have played an increasingly important role in GCC discussions.

In 1991, the GCC issued the Damascus Declaration, sometimes dubbed GCC+2, calling for the introduction of Syrian and Egyptian ground forces into a joint GCC defense force called "Peninsula Shield." This force, which was projected to be 100,000 strong, was to serve as a front-line defense against external aggression in the region. Its mission was to hold off an attacker long enough for the United States to augment its land, sea and air forces stationed in the region (which now comprise 13,000 Americans), and turn back the aggressor. Since then, however, little has been done to bring a functional "Peninsula Shield" to fruition. Currently its full-strength operational ability approaches 10,000 men, but it rarely operates at full strength.

As has been the case with other defense issues, Oman has led the GCC toward improving "Peninsula Shield." From a geostrategic perspective, Oman guards the most crucial waterway in the world, the Strait of Hormuz separating Oman from Iran, and has every reason to be concerned about its security and that of its neighbors. For this and other reasons, Sultan Qaboos consistently has advocated stronger GCC defense policies. This summit conference was no exception, as the heads of state devoted a significant amount of time to discussing joint defense policies and to strengthening "Peninsula Shield." Only time will tell, however, if and when these measures for collective defense will be further expanded.

The GCC summit conference had one unexpected event when a disagreement arose over who would assume the GCC secretary-generalship during next year's summit conference to be held in Doha, Qatar. Qatar's ruler, Sheikh Hamid, and his advisors left Muscat one day early to protest the Council's choice of a Saudi national, former Saudi Ambassador to France Jameel Hujailan, instead of Qatar's candidate for the position. The dispute revolved around a parliamentary question as to whether the debate concerning filling the position was "substantive," which would require a full consensus of members, or "procedural," which requires only a majority of members. In the end, the Council decided that it was a procedural issue and the position went to Saudi Arabia's nominee. In response, Qatar referred the issue to the GCC's Legal Committee, although Sheikh Hamid made it clear that Qatar will abide by the committee's decision.

Although the last-minute dispute dominated international media coverage of the Summit, Qatar's Foreign Minister Sheikh Hamid bin Jassim bin Jaber Al Thani delivered a message to Sultan Qaboos that Qatar had no intention of leaving the GCC, but hoped to make it "more effective" inthe future.

Far more important than the diplomatic maneuvering, however, was the amazing economic and social progress of all of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, exemplified by the total transformation of this summit conference's host country, Oman. Only three decades ago, the Arabian peninsula was a vast desert, its scant population concentrated in widely scattered trading towns and villages, hardly at the forefront of international attention. Oman, for its part, was an almost feudal state with only three schools, a few miles of roads, and one hospital before the ascension to the throne of Sultan Qaboos in 1970.

Today, Oman's modern capital area encompasses several once-scattered towns and villages in a network of modern housing and office buildings linked by four-lane highways and overpasses. Similar modernization meets the eye throughout the Sultanate. Such spectular development is evident in all of the GCC countries, and its individual states are active players in the international arena. Despite the debilitating war of attrition between Iraq and Iran from 1980 to 1988, and the enormous destruction that accompanied the Iraqi invasion and six-month occupation of Kuwait in 1990 and 1991, throughout the GCC countries excellent medical care is available even in the remotest areas, education at no cost through the university level is available to all, and the once sleepy trading towns and fishing ports have blossomed into prosperous modern cities. Based on the discussions and decisions of the 16th GCC Summit Conference, that progress seems certain to continue.

Shawn L. Twing, news editor of the Washington Report, attended the 16th GCC Summit Conference in Muscat Dec. 4 through 6.