Absence of Soviet Threat Removes Constraints on Turkey

By Sami Kohen

Turkey has begun to play a more independent and active role in its foreign policy, dissociating itself on certain issues from its Western allies. This stems from a growing feeling among Turks that they can better shape particular developments in their own neighborhood, stretching from the Balkans to the Caucasus and the Middle East, by using their own initiative.

Encouraged by the belief that changing world conditions give Turkey the opportunity to emerge as a regional power, both President Turgut Ozal and Prime Minister Suleyman Demirel have predicted increased Turkish influence "from the Adriatic to the Chinese Wall." In light of the emergence of the new Turkic Republics and the conflicts affecting the Balkans and the Caucasus, Ozal suggests that Turkey may become a major "world power" in the 21st century.

Statements within Turkey's foreign affairs community elaborate this view. ''It is natural that Turkey should consider its own interests and that it should have its own say on regional affairs," explains Foreign Minister Hikmet Cetin. Kamran Inan, a leading foreign policy expert and member of the opposition Motherland Party, says, "Turkey now has the possibility of saying 'no' even to its Western allies'' and "can use its leverage on matters concerning its national interests.''

Acting along these lines, the Turkish government convened a meeting in Ankara with the Iranian and Syrian foreign ministers to discuss Iraq, and more particularly the Kurdish problem there. The Turkish initiative, taken without consultation with or advance notice to Washington or other Western capitals, resulted in a consensus with its two Middle East neighbors to oppose the division of Iraq and the creation of a ''federated" or independent Kurdish state in the region. Turkey also obtained a condemnation of the ''terrorist" activities of the Kurdish Labor Party (PKK), which has launched attacks against Turkey from northern Iraq.

The move was meant as a message to the West, which the Turks fear is encouraging Iraqi Kurds to create an independent or semi-independent Kurdish state in northern Iraq. Ankara is strongly opposed to this, fearing it would encourage its own sizable Kurdish population (one-fifth of the country's 60 million people) to make similar claims.

Whereas the West's primary concern is to continue the pressure on Iraq to topple the Saddam regime, Turkey's is to prevent Kurds from controlling the region. As a senior Turkish official said, "A divided Iraq leads to a Kurdish state, and that is worse than having Saddam in office."

"Operation Provide Comfort," the small allied force based in Turkey to protect the Kurds of northern Iraq from Saddam's forces, has opened a gulf between Turkish public opinion and the West. Although the Turkish government has agreed to an extension of the force's presence, public debates leave no doubt that most Turks do not want to be associated with Western policy on this particular question.

A Differing Stance on Bosnia

On the problem of Bosnia-Hercegovina, Turkey's official stance also is quite different from that of the West. Some Turks charge bitterly that the Christian West is reluctant to intervene in Bosnia in order to save its Muslim population.

Turkey has undertaken a series of initiatives to press the West—and the U.N.— to move on this issue. Istanbul hosted an "enlarged'' Balkan Conference last November which appealed (on Turkey's insistence) for stronger action in Bosnia. A similar move was undertaken by Turkey at the Islamic Conference in Saudi Arabia early in December, followed by still another Turkish initiative at the U.N. General Assembly.

The Turkish view is that it is time to use force against Serbian military units in Bosnia-Hercegovina, and to station troops in Macedonia and Kosovo in order to prevent Serbian attacks in those territories, which could lead to an all-out Balkan war.

The Turkish government volunteered repeatedly to put Turkish troops at U.N. disposal for use in the former Yugoslavia. This is not to the taste of the West, however, which fears that Turkey's involvement will further complicate the situation. Ankara is determined, however, to convince the West of the need for international military intervention in Bosnia.

Turkey also is taking an active interest and following independent policies on various issues in the Caucasus, such as on the conflicts between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and between Georgians and Abkhazians. Although Ankara does not wish to be dragged into those conflicts, it does not hesitate to express its support for the Azeris and the Abkhazis, considering them as part of the greater Turkic world.

Last fall Turkey hosted a conference in Ankara of the heads of states of Turkic Republics. This first Turkic summit was used to demonstrate Turkey's growing importance as a regional power, or what Turkish diplomats call "a foreign policy with personality.''

''For years we have been discussing whether we are Europeans or Middle Easterners, or both," explains Prof. Hasan Koni of the political science faculty in Ankara. "Now we are regaining our personality. We are Turks and we have every reason and advantage to be gained from acting as such."

Sami Kohen is an editor of the Milliyet newspaper in Istanbul.