Despite Suspicions, Palestinian Popular Support Growing for Oslo, Elections

By Ella Bancroft

Results of the 20th public opinion poll in the West Bank and Gaza conducted by the Center for Palestine Research and Studies in Nablus between Oct. 13 and 15 show that the Palestinian public may be more ready for democracy than some of its leaders.

A surprising 72.1 percent supported the Taba or Oslo II agreement signed by Israeli and Palestinian representatives at the White House in September. This was a significant increase from July, when only 55 percent of the Palestinians supported it.

Some 50 percent of respondents supported amendment of the portion of the Palestinian Charter that called for the elimination of Israel, and 39 percent opposed it. Palestinian National Authority President Yasser Arafat has promised to call for amending the charter after January elections add some new members to the Palestinian National Council who presumably will follow his recommendation. Israeli Prime Minister Shimon Peres has threatened to halt the peace process if the Charter is not amended, as provided in the Oslo I agreement.

The mid-October poll also showed that some 46 percent of Palestinians believe the Oslo II agreement will lead to the establishment of an independent Palestinian state; 24 percent believe it will lead to limited autonomy; 19 percent believe it will lead to an entity that is less than a state; and 10 percent don't know.

Approximately 91 percent of Palestinian respondents consider participation in the January elections for a Palestinian National Council a national duty, 81 percent intend to register for the elections, and 68 percent intend to participate even if the opposition calls for a boycott. However, 40 percent believe the election will provide the Palestinian National Authority with justification to oppress the Palestinian opposition.

A resounding 68 percent said participation would not violate religious instructions, while 17 percent said it would and 10 percent didn't know. Respondents were divided, with 51 percent supporting a proportional representation system and 40 percent supporting a simple majority system. Fifty-four percent believe the elections will be fair, while 22 percent believe they will not be fair. Seventy percent of respondents were willing to elect a woman candidate, while 25 percent were not.

Finally, the poll showed that the popularity of Yasser Arafat is increasing, with 58 percent expecting to vote for him and 52 percent expecting to vote for members of his Fatah faction for the Palestinian National Council.

American Public and Congress Move In Opposite Directions Over Bosnia

As members of Congress reluctantly lined up behind resolutions of qualified support for the sending of American ground troops to Bosnia-Herzegovina, public support seemed to move the other way. In a poll of 1,004 adults conducted Dec. 2 and 3 by Louis Harris and Associates, 75 percent of those who described themselves as Republicans opposed the deployment, while 55 percent of Democrats opposed it. Of those who watched, read or heard about President Bill Clinton's speech to the nation explaining why he was sending troops, 63 percent opposed the deployment while 34 percent backed it. A Harris poll official said the poll results did not capture the fluidity of the situation. "As events in Bosnia unfold, opinion will surely change, and those changes could be positive or negative," he said.

A Cold Egyptian-Israeli Peace

In a poll taken a year ago in December 1994 by Egypt's semiofficial Al Ahram weekly, more than 50 percent of those surveyed said they disapproved of Israelis visiting Egypt, 70 percent said they would not buy Israeli goods, and nearly 60 percent said the peace process has not given Palestinians their rights.

The poll was cited in Egyptian newspaper reports of a mixed Egyptian public reaction to the assassination of Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin last Nov. 4. Although President Hosni Mubarak made his first trip to Jerusalem to attend Rabin's funeral, many Egyptians expressed indifference over the death of the former Israeli chief of staff, who is remembered in the Arab world for his policy of breaking the bones of Palestinian stone-throwers when he served as Israeli minister of defense during the Palestinian intifada.

Citing the October assassination in Malta of Fathi Shikaki, leader of the extremist Palestinian group Islamic Jihad, editor Magdi Hussein of Cairo's Al Shaab daily said, "We think it is the revenge of God." The editor, whose newspaper is sympathetic to Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood, added: "We are astonished about the sadness in the West and the United States about terrorism only when it is against one of the Israelis. We need some tears for our children, for our leaders."

Ella Bancroft covers U.S. and Canadian affairs for overseas newspapers.