Do Fundamentalist Victories in Jordanian Elections Threaten Liberalization?

By Wafa Amr

The stunning victory of Muslim Brotherhood and allied candidates in Jordan's first parliamentary elections in 22 years foreshadows the problems confronting King Hussein's liberalization drive. The Nov. 8 election, the first since April 1967, was to be the initial move in a series of steps to widen democracy, political freedom and tolerance.

After the June 1967 war with Israel, King Hussein dissolved the parliament, which consisted of deputies representing both banks of the River Jordan. The Israeli occupation of the West Bank excluded the possibility of general elections while part of the land was occupied. However, when King Hussein severed legal and administrative ties with the West Bank last year, the constitutional gap was overcome by carrying out elections that excluded West Bank deputies. Hence the parliament elected in 1989 is the first parliament since 1951 that is purely Jordanian.

A Purely Jordanian Parliament

It will be dominated by the Muslim Brotherhood and its allies, which emerged with a total of 34 seats. The Brotherhood itself won 23 seats in the 80-seat assembly. Leftists and their supporters secured around 12 seats. The outcome of the election was expected, but the number of seats the Brotherhood and like-minded candidates secured exceeded all predictions.

The strength and influence of the Muslim Brotherhood has been building up over the years, since it was the only group permitted to operate in the open when political parties were banned by law after 1957. (Leftist parties still are banned.) The Brotherhood also made use of other available privileges, such as access to the mosques and its domination of public institutions such as the Ministry of Education and the universities. At the same time, the existing leftist political parties were struggling to maintain their identity through underground work.

"The Brotherhood easily met five times a day during prayers, whereas we had to take the necessary precautions when calling for a meeting for fear of arrest, " a member of the Jordanian Communist Party (JCP) said. Furthermore, the Brotherhood is a highly organized, disciplined group. Its election campaign rallies were frequently attended by crowds of 10,000 or more supporters.

In the absence of political parties, for many people there was no alternative to "Islam" as a refuge from political and economic frustrations, according to some analysts.

Others have a different explanation: "The Islamic trend flourishes during periods of political relaxation and economic wellbeing," one observer said.

When bread riots hit the southern parts of the Kingdom early in 1989, the Muslim Brotherhood withdrew from the scene and took no part in popular outcries for political freedoms and the downfall of the government. Popular demands during and after the riots for the trial of corrupt officials, however, were supported by the majority of the 650 candidates, including Brotherhood candidates.

Many not necessarily religious Jordanians interviewed said they voted for the Brotherhood because they wanted to replace corrupt, self-interested people with honest God-fearing candidates.

In the wake of the elections, there is a popular desire to start the reorganization of the country by putting "clean" figures into government positions. Many not necessarily religious Jordanians interviewed said they voted for the Brotherhood because they wanted to replace corrupt, self-interested people with honest God-fearing candidates.

Speaking of a candidate for whom she had voted, one housewife said: "I don't know what he stands for politically, but he is a good Muslim and would think twice before committing improper actions. " The Brotherhood may also have won over some Jordanians of Palestinian origin by its calls for holy war or "jihad" to liberate all of Palestine, and for opening the boundaries of neighboring countries to achieve this end. These calls appeal to some Palestinian refugees from within Israel's pre- 1967 borders, since the PLO's declared state on the West Bank and Gaza Strip has deepened their feelings of loss and aroused their concern over their right to return.

"The refugee camp residents' Islamic votes do not necessarily mean they are religiously oriented, but indicate their conviction that no solution short of all of Palestine will solve their problems," a refugee camp resident said.

Voter Turnout is Low

Observers argue that the election results do not necessarily reflect the reality of Jordanian society. Only 38 percent of all eligible voters actually turned out to vote.

"The map of election results would have been different had voters practiced their constitutional right, because many people who doubted the honesty of the elections refused to register, and their vote wouldn't have been Islamic, " an observer said.

Although all the political trends were represented in elections, one of the main obstacles candidates affiliated with banned political parties had to face was the uncertainty that the government would allow their participation. The government announced only two weeks before the elections that all candidates, regardless of their political ideologies, would be allowed to stand for office.

"The uncertainty gave us no time to campaign properly, whereas the Brotherhood had been campaigning for 35 years," a political activist said. Despite the constraints on candidates with leftist tendencies, who ran as independents rather than on a party platform, the three existing leftist political parties managed to secure one seat each in the parliament.

The parties are the Jordanian Communist Party (JCP), the Jordanian Peoples Democratic Party (JPDP), and the Jordanian wing of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP). A press release issued by the JPDP after elections said the number of national democratic candidates would have doubled had it not been for limitations imposed by the election law and the ban on public political activity for the past 33 years.

"The people have chosen and I am very optimistic, " King Hussein told a press conference after the elections. "I have promised free and fair elections and I usually keep my promises."

Jordanians accept the honesty of the elections but their outcome has raised concerns among the Christian minority in the country, as well as among Muslims who will resist changes in their westernized lifestyle.

There is also the possibility that, if the Brotherhood sticks to its campaign calls for the implementation of Islamic law ("sharia"), the liberalization drive would be jeopardized. Before elections, Brotherhood candidates called for banning the consumption of alcohol, imposing conservative dress standards for women and solving the unemployment problem by "fighting the employment of women to give young men a chance to find jobs. " Since the elections, however, the Brotherhood has started to soften its tone.

"Our priority is supporting the Palestinian intifada and rectifying the political and economic course, " said deputy Sheikh Abdel Min'ern Abu Zant, who was arrested three times by the previous government and who was one of the first deportees from the occupied territories in 1967.

Other Brotherhood deputies have also stressed the urgency of solving the economic crisis. The stunning victory of the Islamic candidates, however, has raised fears of a possible confrontation between the regime and the Brotherhood, especially after several admonitions by King Hussein in his nationwide speeches not to involve religion with politics.

Dr. Jamal Shaer, a former Jordanian minister, believes neither the Brotherhood nor King Hussein will opt for confrontation in the short run. The King has various other means to counter the ascendancy of political Islam. For its part, the Brotherhood will be restrained by its historic alliance with the regime and the special status that the Brotherhood enjoys in Jordan compared to its treatment by other Arab regimes. Nevertheless there are a number of important issues on which the Brotherhood and the regime will clash, such as Jordan's decision to sever legal and administrative ties with the West Bank last year, an analyst said.

Disagreement Over West Bank Disengagement

The Brotherhood, which calls for a unified Islamic Arab world, has been a staunch opponent of the disengagement decision. This also puts the Brotherhood at odds with the national democratic deputies in the Jordanian parliament, since the Marxist parties consider the decision as irreversible and supportive of the Palestine Liberation Organization's strategy for achieving self-determination.

The Brotherhood, however, points out that it enjoys good relations with the regime and that its fears of the Brotherhood are unfounded. "King Hussein realizes that the Muslim Brotherhood is concerned for Jordan's interests and security because Islam considers security and peace among its basic principles, " Sheikh Abu Zant said. He said the group considers itself a constructive and positive opposition to the regime.

Observers maintain that the Brotherhood will have to adopt moderate and realistic approaches since this is a trial period for it. Furthermore, Hussein's ideas of a national charter that will allow political parties will weaken their exclusive status.

"The Brotherhood has flourished in the absence of political parties," a Jordanian politician said. He predicted that if ideological parties are allowed, the political balance will swing toward the center peacefully, and that if it does not, King Hussein will exercise his constitutional right to dissolve parliament and call for new elections.

"The democratic process is irreversible," a young Circassian deputy, Mansour Murad, declared. "Any departure from the natural flow of liberalization and freedoms will only lead to the explosion of the situation."

Wafa Amr is Amman correspondent for the London-based Al Quds newspaper and a reporter for United Press International in Jordan.